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Earth almost put on impact alert
http://news.bbc.co.uk ^ | Tuesday, 24 February, 2004, 17:33 GMT | Dr. David Whitehouse

Posted on 02/24/2004 11:34:28 AM PST by GeraldP

Some scientists believed on 13 January that a 30m object, later designated 2004 AS1, had a one-in-four chance of hitting the planet within 36 hours.

It could have caused local devastation and the researchers contemplated a call to President Bush before new data finally showed there was no danger.

The procedures for raising the alarm in such circumstances are now being revised.

At the time, the president's team would have been putting the final touches to a speech he was due to make the following day at the headquarters of Nasa, the US space agency.

In it he planned to reset the course of manned spaceflight, sending it back to the Moon and on to Mars, but he could have had something very different to say.

If... the call had been made to the president it would have been disastrous

Brian Marsden, Minor Planet Center He could have begun by warning the world it was about to be hit by a space rock.

Bush would not have known where it would impact - only somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere. Experts would have been bouncing radar signals off the huge rock as he spoke in order to get more information about its trajectory.

At about 30m wide, the asteroid was cosmic small fry, not the type of thing to wipe out the dinosaurs or threaten our species, but still big enough to cause considerable damage after exploding in the atmosphere.

Potentially, the loss of life could have been much worse than 11 September.

In the end, Bush made no such announcement, but astronomers have admitted they were on the verge of making the call.

Shall we call the President?

In a paper presented at this week's Planetary Protection conference in California, veteran asteroid researcher Clark Chapman calls it a "nine-hour crisis".

He explains how word reached the astronomical community of an asteroid that had just been discovered by the twin optical telescopes of the Linear automated sky survey in New Mexico.

Bush's Nasa speech might have taken a different turn The Minor Planet Center in Massachusetts - the clearing house for such observations - posted details on the internet requesting attention from astronomers, one of whom noticed something peculiar.

The object was expected to grow 40-times brighter in the next day - a possible sign that it was getting closer, very rapidly.

But with data from just four observations available, the uncertainties were large. There were many possible orbits the object could be on, and the majority of them did not threaten the Earth.

What to do? Tell the world about the uncertain situation or wait for more data?

For some astronomers, events reached a crescendo when Steven Chesley, a researcher at Nasa's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, looked at the available data and sent an e-mail saying the asteroid had a 25% chance of striking the Earth's Northern Hemisphere in a few days.

It was then that astronomers Clark Chapman and David Morrison, chair of the International Astronomical Union's Working Group on Near Earth Objects, contemplated picking up the telephone to the White House.

'Jumped the gun'

But many astronomers did not agree that waking up President Bush would have been wise.

"They completely misread the situation," said Benny Peiser of Liverpool John Moores University in the UK. "There was plenty of time to get other observers on the job."

Others also believe the call would have been premature.

"That would have jumped the gun before we knew much about the object," said Brian Marsden, of the Minor Planet Center.

Chapman was close to raising alarm "I find it incredible that such action was contemplated on the basis of just four observations. That is just not enough to yield a sensible orbit.

"There was no need to panic as it was obvious that the situation would have been resolved, one way or another, in another hour or two," he told BBC News Online.

Fortunately for all concerned, shortly after the ominous Chesley e-mail, an amateur astronomer managed to dodge the clouds and take a picture of a blank patch of sky.

This was significant because if 2004 AS1 really was going to hit the Earth, it would have been in the amateur's sights. The fact that it was absent meant the rock would not strike us.

But Chapman says in his presentation that if it had been cloudy, and no more observations could have been obtained at the time, he would have raised the alarm.

Marsden disagrees. "If it had been cloudy and the call had been made to the President it would have been disastrous."

Many astronomers recognise that they a false alarm could have brought ridicule on their profession. They are calling for more planning and less panic if it should happen for real next time.

And 2004 AS1? It turned out to be bigger than anyone had thought - about 500m wide. It eventually passed the Earth at a distance of about 12 million km - 32 times the Earth-Moon distance, posing no danger to us whatsoever.


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: asteroid; cataclysm; globalkiller; impact
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Makes you think about crying "wolf!" too soon.
1 posted on 02/24/2004 11:34:30 AM PST by GeraldP
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To: GeraldP
Hot Fudge Tuesday!
2 posted on 02/24/2004 11:39:38 AM PST by GSWarrior
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To: GeraldP
If... the call had been made to the president it would have been disastrous

Why? Because it would have been Bush's fault and three times as lethal if he was informed. /sarc/

3 posted on 02/24/2004 11:41:37 AM PST by TADSLOS (Right Wing Infidel since 1954)
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To: GeraldP
about 500m wide

About 1/15 the width of the one that killed the dinosaurs. Still too large and too close for comfort.

4 posted on 02/24/2004 11:41:45 AM PST by staytrue
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To: TADSLOS
If... the call had been made to the president it would have been disastrous

Bush would have been called on the carpet by the media for announcing a space based WMD and then having to take it back.

5 posted on 02/24/2004 11:43:17 AM PST by staytrue
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To: GeraldP
Wait until the Passion Starts the impact is going to be worse then that, the president may have to make a speach.
6 posted on 02/24/2004 11:45:08 AM PST by boomop1
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To: GeraldP
Where is the mailing list where such discussions take place? If amateur astronomers can be on it, we can lurk too. Might be fun!
7 posted on 02/24/2004 11:46:19 AM PST by Timesink (Smacky is power.)
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To: Timesink
I would also like to know. Guess we'll just have to wait for somebody from it to stumble into this thread and illuminate us.
8 posted on 02/24/2004 11:48:53 AM PST by GeraldP (Feja e shqiptarit eshte Shqiptaria)
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To: staytrue
A few things frighten me. First, that a rock only 90 feet wide could cause devastation. Second, that it turned out to be much larger than they thought. Third, that they had only 36 hours warning. And finally, all the stupid talk about a political "disaster" caused by a false alarm. We're so damn emotional and childish at this point that we can't handle the truth. Isn't this what got us into 9/11? Won't this "false alarm" cause the scientists to bne gun shty next time?
9 posted on 02/24/2004 11:50:29 AM PST by Williams
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To: GeraldP
What did Bush know and when did he know it?
10 posted on 02/24/2004 11:51:26 AM PST by BrooklynGOP (www.logicandsanity.com)
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To: GeraldP
That is the main problem detecting one that is going to hit us. If it is moving across the pictures than it's trajectory is somewhere else, but if it is coming right towards us it does not move- we can only tell it is coming by it growing brighter.

If one hits us I doubt we will have much more than a few days notice no matter what.
11 posted on 02/24/2004 11:53:30 AM PST by Mr. K
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To: GeraldP
32 times the Earth-Moon distance

That is a 25% chance? Looks like closer to 1 in a million.

12 posted on 02/24/2004 11:54:59 AM PST by RightWhale (Theorems link concepts; proofs establish links)
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To: GeraldP
Further, I don't think a warning would have brought ridicule on astronomers. It would have focused us on potential danger. People would have been relieved the danger passed. I think we have become stupid shallow and childish to a degree that endangers us. Some realities, like a piece of space rock wiping us out, do not yield to our emotional, political whims.
13 posted on 02/24/2004 11:56:31 AM PST by Williams
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To: Timesink; GeraldP
Here's the site for the Minor Planet Center.

Don't know about their mailing list, though.

14 posted on 02/24/2004 12:00:15 PM PST by Constitution Day
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To: Timesink
Where is the mailing list where such discussions take place?

It's out there, but it's also a short, quiet, and dull list. Generally, even if they call the White House, the citizens will not be notified until the impact point is known. That won't leave much time, and even then, what should the citizens do?

15 posted on 02/24/2004 12:00:16 PM PST by RightWhale (Theorems link concepts; proofs establish links)
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To: Williams
...bne gun shty... be gun shy?
16 posted on 02/24/2004 12:09:01 PM PST by JimRed (Disinformation is the leftist's and enemy's friend; consider the source before believing.)
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To: All
Bush's Nasa speech might have taken a different turn

The President lied to the American people by not using the words "imminent threat" in the NASA speech. Pass it on. DNC.

17 posted on 02/24/2004 12:13:39 PM PST by WilliamofCarmichael (Benedict Arnold was a hero for both sides in the same war, too!)
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To: GeraldP
Gee, why call the US President? Clearly, it's a global problem, so we need a multilateral approach. I say dump it in Kofi Annan's lap.
18 posted on 02/24/2004 12:15:33 PM PST by thoughtomator ("What do I know? I'm just the President." - George W. Bush, Superbowl XXXVIII pregame statement)
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To: RightWhale
It's out there, but it's also a short, quiet, and dull list. Generally, even if they call the White House, the citizens will not be notified until the impact point is known. That won't leave much time, and even then, what should the citizens do?

Why, run around screaming, of course!

I don't care about getting "advance warning", I just want to watch the scientists argue like in a bad sci-fi movie.

19 posted on 02/24/2004 12:17:02 PM PST by Timesink (Smacky is power.)
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To: GeraldP
close to....Oh Shit!
20 posted on 02/24/2004 12:18:49 PM PST by CathyRyan
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