Posted on 10/16/2017 8:32:27 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
On paper, Democrat Ralph Northam holds a small but fairly consistent lead in the polling of Virginia’s gubernatorial race. The most recent survey, from Emerson College, puts Northam ahead of Republican Ed Gillespie, 49 percent to 44 percent (with a margin of error of 5.5 points). But Democrats don’t feel confident at all.
Last week Paul Krugman wrote about the race in a tone of panic: For whatever reason, however, Virginia isn’t getting nearly as much play in national media or, as far as I can tell, among progressive activists, as it deserves. Folks, right now this is where the action is: Virginia is now the most important place on the U.S. political landscape — and what happens there could decide the fate of the nation.
The Washington Post studied its own surveys and concluded, “far fewer Virginia voters are closely following the campaign than at similar stages in the past three gubernatorial elections.” Last week, Sam Stein reported: Democratic operatives working on the race and those closely following it are more openly panicked that complacency has set in. . . . three Democratic sources have told The Daily Beast that Northam’s internal campaign polling has the race within the margin of error, and not at the outer edges of that range.
Democratic anxiety is probably driven by three distinct causes. The first is a hangover from 2016. Last year many Democrats were absolutely certain that Hillary Clinton would win, and many believed she would beat Trump in a landslide. Like a quarterback who endures a brutal blindside hit, the Democrats “hear the footsteps” — they’re on alert for another rude surprise on Election Day. (The disappointing finish for Jon Ossoff in the runoff in the Georgia special House election might even compound this.)
It’s worth noting that not only did Hillary Clinton win Virginia in 2016, this is one of the few states where she performed better than Barack Obama did in 2012. The second cause is concern that Northam might resemble Hillary Clinton in the wrong ways. Like Hillary, Northam was considered the moderate in the party primary, and is a party loyalist asking voters to continue an era of Democratic governance. Neither one is a whirling dervish of raw political charisma. Like Hillary in 2016, Northam is offering voters the status quo with a bit more spending.
But the third cause seems like the best reason to worry. In both the 2013 gubernatorial race featuring Ken Cuccinelli and the 2014 Senate race featuring Gillespie, the Republican candidate dramatically overperformed compared to the final polls. The final RealClearPolitics average in 2013 had Cuccinelli trailing by 6.7 points; he lost by 2.5 points. The 2014 result was even more dramatic; the final RCP average put Democrat Mark Warner ahead by 9.7 points; he won by eight-tenths of a percentage point.
Is this a “shy Tory” effect? Are Virginia Republicans particularly reticent to tell a pollster they’re voting for the GOP candidate? Is the Virginia Republican get-out-the-vote effort worth a few extra percentage points? No one in Virginia politics knows for certain. But it suggests that a small Democratic lead heading into Election Day might not be so reliable.
Any other GOP candidate would be leading, Amnesty Ed’s problem is he’s trying to sell us on being tough on illegals.
That’s a tough sell.
Nobody is talking about this race, it’s like we aren’t even having an election.
Gillespie energizes no one.
A large (and growing ) percentage of the population don't answer calls from unidentified numbers. They turn people away from their doors as well. Pollsters have to just guess about this demographic, because they do vote.
Of course the media says that if Gillespie loses its because of Trump, yet they don’t mention how Clinton won Virginia and Obama won Virginia twice..if Gillespie wins it would be a huge shock considering northern Virginia is all lefty
Hope for a massive turnout in the rural areas to offset the D.C. Swamp suburbs.
Also wish that Gillespie wasn’t a Rino, keeping his distance from President Trump.
What a shame. Makes him no better than my anti-Trump Rino Governor Hogan in Maryland.
With a donkey now in charge in NC, a tough race in SC, a democrat favored in NJ and Rick Scott’s days dwindling in FL, it’s a rather disturbing picture as far as as state houses are concerned. Plus, who knows who’ll succeed Kasick in Ohio.
And, remember, the critical congressional districts are at risk with the next Census, conducted by the governors.
Well, does adding another Republican governor, at this crucial time in America's history as a Republic, mean anything?
Mr. Jefferson must be spinning at the lack of commitment to Republican (not Party, but Republican in the historic sense) principles--which are the only ones which can sustain America's Constitutional Republic.
Paul Krugman wrote about the race in a tone of panicPaul "Pee-Pants" Krugman, tone of panic? That's just crazy talk.
Ed needs a make-over. A few lessons from JUDGE JEANINE PIRRO might help him significantly. He always struck me as a panty waist. . .as in weak. . .I looked it up to be sure I was using the term correctly. :)
Gillespie energizes no one////
Maybe not but the thought of having a Bolshevik Trump hater like northam as gov motivates me plenty!
I would love nothing better than to elect a Republican Governor.
We only have an undocumented Democrat and an actual Democrat to choose from.
The lack of commitment to Republican principles comes from the VAGOP.
The last two Senate races they had to have amnesty candidates and they lost because of that.
If they didn’t turn out for Ken Cuccinelli, why would they turn out for a party hack?
sounds like perfect conditions for the Punk to steal the election
I would love to say I agree with their concerns, but I have a hard time seeing it. Had Republican put up someone who could excite the “Trump Base” for lack of a better term, then I could see Virginia flipping... but with an establishment GOPe guy like Gillespie??? I don’t see him motivating those voters Trump connected with... so unless the NOVA democrats stay home, and R turnout in the rural areas far exceeds expectations.. don’t see this one flipping, as much as I may want it to.
I am not on the ground in VA so maybe Gillespie is connecting and motivating voters, I would lay odds that NOVA turnout will almost certainly be lower than during the 2016 presidential election, and default is the party out of power usually is going to do better getting votes in elections not in sync with an national election, so certainly the baseline is the R should outperform 2016... and since the swamp creature not the D.C. Area don’t have their paychecks tied to continuing D rule in VA turnout will almost certainly take a hit in NOVA which further hurts a D in a generic race.
Could the R pull out a win? Yes it’s possible... but will they? If they had gone with a non establishment candidate I would have said almost certainly.. with an establishment candidate... it’s possible, but would say odds are not in the favor of that happening. It certainly won’t be a 5 point win for the D... I’d say best case for the D in this Generic race is 3 points on the high end, probably less when it’s all said and done.
A Gillespie win is possible, but it’s in my estimation an outside chance.
NoVa should be split off and integrated into DC.
Same difference.
So in Virginia, the adults are Republican, and the Democrats are nervous?
VA is based on Fairfax County. That’s it. The R’s carry the state but lose fairfax.
The answer comes from the 2016 Trump campaign:
Ask the following question:
Who do you think your neighbor would vote for,,,,?
Ed Gillespie is a man of action, a change agent. His unique blend of corporate politics and globalism will ensure that Virginia repels illegal immigrants and restores the Old Dominion state back to national prominence (/s).
Cucinelli lost for one reason. His campaign volunteers did not get out the vote. Has anyone learned from history? Or will it be repeated?
Northam comes across as such a smarmy, snarky guy that Gillespie might get votes just for that. There’s still human nature.
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