Posted on 10/26/2016 5:49:12 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 44.6% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.
47.6% of REP ballots, have been returned and 44.7% of DEM ballots have been returned.
10/26/16: REPs - 606,144, DEMs - 569,783 lead of 36,361 for REPs, 42.0% to 39.5%
10/25/16: REPs - 556,058, DEMs - 525,076 lead of 30,982 for REPs, 42.0% to 39.7%
10/24/16: REPs - 503,632, DEMs - 483,019 lead of 20,613 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.0%
10/23/16: REPs - 496,040, DEMs - 476,292 lead of 19,748 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.0%
10/22/16: REPs - 463,959, DEMs - 443,502 lead of 20,457 for REPs, 41.8% to 40.0%
For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):
10/26/16: REPs - 52,634, DEMs - 62,884, lead of 10,250 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting
10/25/16: REPs - 41,660, DEMs - 50,050, lead of 8,390 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting
10/24/16: REPs - 33,400, DEMs - 38,935, lead of 5,535 for DEMs
10/23/16: REPs - 31,163, DEMs - 36,362, lead of 5,199 for DEMs
10/22/16: REPs - 31,163, DEMs - 36,362, lead of 5,199 for DEMs
Okay, thanks. I see that Duval county in-person early voting ends by November 6th (a Sunday). Also, the polls are open on Sundays, so there are 12 days left of early in-person voting, including today. Assuming your calculation of a 77,527 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS is correct, and that the DEM lead in in-person voting grows proportionally through the 6th (DEMs lead by 30,631 after 2 days x 6 more two day periods = 183,786 projected lead).
Offset the DEMs projected in-person lead of 183,786 by a 77,527 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS, then DEMS would have a 106,259 lead going into election day.
It is going to be tight.
Also the independent returns are up this year and Trump has the edge there. That will cut into the 102K D even more.
Guess we will have to wait a little longer and see who things Trend.
A new poll by Bloomberg came out this morning showing Trump +2 in Florida.
I think it will be a close election in Florida.
ABCs tracking poll of 12 points is ridiculous. 12 points would be a 50 state landslide.
I’d like to see the rate of climb on the Dem lead in Hillsborough flatten out a little, but otherwise these numbers are doable.
by God you are right. It will go above 3.
VERY IMPORTANT: please start posting U or independents/no affiliation. This is going to be key in FL, esp. in Hillsborough, Broward, Miami-Dade.
abc’s poll was intentionally skewed to game the RCP average.
it was paid propaganda.
Disney could save a fortune by just shuttering the abc news division. It serves no public purpose.
Here is the significance of Hillsborough:
It is the ONLY county in all of Florida that voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama.
I am convinced that the Democrats stole Florida in 2012. The ballot box confusion in St. Lucie county in the middle of the night was very weird, And there were irregularities in Palm Beach County, as well.
Methinks a fair amount of GOP voters are voting early which is awesome just in case something happens election day and you can’t make it.
November 5th or 6th depending on county.
Florida is not good about having daily stats from 2012. Speedy is comparing current totals as of today in 2016 to all of early voting from 2012. Final DEM:GOP ratio for all early voting in 2012 was 42.9% to 39.1%. That is the ratio we are aiming for to do better than that.
Hard to know how the Independents vote in Florida without demographics. Electionsmith.com (liberal Florida professor) was giving us demographics earlier but stopped recently (I think he doesn’t like the demographics of the Florida Independent Voter). That is my guess.
We have demographics for the average Georgia and North Carolina early voter but not Florida. This information would be helpful.
I just voted for Trump early in Duval County, Florida.
In 2012, Romney got 14,896 more votes than Obama in Duval. That was 51.4% to 47.8%.
As of last night, the total of mailed in ballots and in-person ballots was 69,459 or 17% of all the votes that were cast in 2012. The breakdown so far on those voters: 44% R, 42.8% D, and 13.2% other. There are 11.5 days left of in-person, early voting in Duval.
One other thing. Lots of Republican counties don’t start early voting until Saturday October 29th. Look for a modest GOP boost starting Sunday.
The counties I’m looking at are Bay, Highlands, Pasco and Walton. Pasco especially. Very interesting. Lazy county supervisors didn’t want to start early voting October 24th like almost all the other counties did.
By my calculations, today the REPs have expanded their lead in overall ballot returns v. DEMs:
Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 46,235
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 34,510
Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 11,725
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