Real Clear Politics&Average Of All Polls.But How Many Pollsters Are Done By Democrats?

[Pence_Dispenser]

They say that most polls are done by left leaning groups/organizations.So does this mean that polls by CNN,ABC,NBC & New York Times are included? What about Monmouth? Who is running Monmouth?. It's just peculiar that the polls done by Democrats have Hillary up about 11 points when the more credible pollsters are showing a tie or a two point race. Guess we can agree that something just doesn't add up,and Trump should be ahead by at least six or seven points.

[Kenny]

The media refuses to talk about the three new national polls that have me in first place. Biggest crowds ever - watch what happens!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2016

[Helicondelta]

“Is it true that the pollsters are basing the polls on 2012 turnout?”

The NBC pollster assumes that Hillary will have a bigger turnout among African Americans than Obama did. We’ll see if he’s right.

It seems to me that democrats are deluding themselves with feel good polls that are probably way off.

[George Rand]

I’ll give you an example:
On realclearpolitics for Florida, the most recent poll shows Killary ahead by a handful of points.
When you’re lucky, the polls will release their methodology and distribution of voters that they recorded.
In the most recent, 80% of the respondents resided along the I-4 Line through Florida (Highway) Which has a HUUUUGGGEEEE Latino population.

Why would one do this? I’ll leave you to find the answer.

[zisurdra11]

Ahem.....you mean since Ronald Reagan?

[Wayne07]

You know what’s odd is that RCP shows IBD poll with Trump -2, and IBD’s website has Trump +1 for the last 3 days.

[cpdiii]

If a poll does not show the internals at the bottom of the poll do not even bother looking at it, as it is a lie. However I even suspect the validity of the internals. They do lie you know?

[Wayne07]

They did post the internals - that's what confused some folks here. They were looking at the raw unweighted data, and saw more Dems responded to the survey. Anyway, internal are here if you want to look them over. I'm not saying the poll is great, or they don't lie, but people who looked at the data and saw +34 D didn't understand what they were reading.

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3145228/Arizona-Republic-Morrison-Cronkite-News-October.pdf

https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3146837/Arizona-Republic-Morrison-Cronkite-News-October.pdf

[Salamander]

Then there’s this guy

http://legalinsurrection.com/2016/10/suny-prof-with-reliable-election-model-predicts-87-chance-of-trump-win/

[wardaddy]

RCP in 2012 final avg was .7 for Obama

He won by 3.9......not waaay off...3 points

RCP in 2008 was 7.6 Obama

He won 7.3

Pretty accurate

I think this year is different given trump mag of support

Yuge

If this doesn’t do it we never will

And will have been defeated by non white invasion demogrpahics

Next step will be war

And no I’m not kidding

And every reality check I’ve been shouted down here for 16 years over I was right and the mostly Yankee moderates were frankly wrong

I don’t think the white race in the USA and Europe etc will just die out in a whimper

I sure hope not

And yes that is. Big part of this but we’re supposed to just whisper it

[jmaroneps37]

RCP has been a willing enabler. I don’t go there anymore but if they use polls from NBC CBS Reuters Monmouth or CNN just stop reading because all have been exposed by wikileaks as collaborators will to fix poll results. The same goes for Natie Silver at 538. He knowing uses these polls to do his job as a Democrat operative. So don’t pay attention to the polls NOT because we don’t like the results but because we KNOW they are rigged.

[grey_whiskers]

In some cases, a mix of 2008 and 2012; in some cases "estimated" turnout; in some cases, they include as likely voters 18-to-24 year-olds who self-report as being between a 5 and a 10 on a 1-to-10 scale of likely to vote.

They consistently oversample Dems (one AZ poll oversampled Dems by 34 points!) and, ahem, *claim* to adjust the weighting to compensate for this, but do not share, nor make public, the formulae by which they do this.