Posted on 10/19/2016 10:26:08 AM PDT by LS
Freepers, ok, I have looked and looked for this number---and have heard it before---but can't find a source.
*How many Rs voted, combined, in all the primaries and caucuses?
*How many Ds voted?
I can find Trump's, or Cruz's number, but not the total.
If that's true, and if, say, 85%, of that number shows up to vote (26.3m) and if each person brings just ONE who did not vote in the primary (52.6m) then Trump is pretty close already. I think the 2012 number of independents who voted was about 15 million? Assuming Trump only gets half of those, he's at 60m. In other words, without a high turnout, without a single D coming over, without a 10% edge in Independents (which is pretty much a minimum even the bad polls give him), he already has matched Romney's 2012 level.
How many of those have since changed their mind? None I expect.
The MSM is trying to convince us that people are abandoning him in droves.
Never believe the MSM.
It is curious, isn’t it, that there were half a million more GOP voters in the primaries but we continue to be insulted with polls that give D+ 5 to 12 and beyond.
Thank you. So, with my little formulation I get between 54 (using 85%) and 54.8m (using 87%) Rs before you get a single I. With 7 m independents splits 50,50 Trump would get 62m.
Trump - 14,015,993
Cruz - 7,822,100
Hillary - 16,914,722
Sanders - 13,206,428
More than half a million.
So here are the numbers I get: At 85% turnout for each, Trump even without a single D crossover or advantage with Is, Trump would get 61.5m votes. Cankles about 58m.
If in fact there is a turnout differential of 2%, you’re looking at Trump over 62m and Cankles at 57m or less.
If Trump gets more than 10% Is, add another 700,000 to Trump and remove another 700,000 from Cankles.
Yet we are constantly told there are AT LEAST D +5. It just ain’t so and they know it. Go back and look at those WSJ “polls” that claim Hillary up by 7 or whatever and then drill down and you find they have to give her D+ some delusional number based on 2008 turnout.
All well and good...but the popular vote doesn’t mean much. We have an Electoral College. And THAT is everything.
Don’t forget Hillary is waiting millions of votes in California and probably New York, as well.
I thought this was going to be about the suicide hotline. But why now? Cruz supporters have long since cruzed and losed. And the eletion is far off. And Trump never does bad in a debate.
I thought this was going to be about the suicide hotline. But why now? Cruz supporters have long since cruzed and losed. And the eletion is far off. And Trump never does bad in a debate.
Nice analysis. I predicted a 6% spread, all things considered. The amount of people that will vote, who did not vote in the primaries, might hit above the 2% mark that you noted. FWIW.
Yes, I’m being conservative, although Rush just said Fred Barnes said Trump only getting 80% GOP (Romney got 93% and lost, but again, black vote, youth vote). I don’t believe that. I think Trump at least gets 85% R, as you say, gets some previously “never voted” and gets 10% Is.
Don’t use Google.
I know I will vote as many times as I can, which for me is only once, unfortunately.
“The MSM is trying to convince us that people are abandoning him in droves.”
It’s propaganda, and we all know it. If anything, the incessant Democrat/Uniparty/media attacks against Trump, are only galvanizing more voters to pull the lever for him in November.
Poor you.
I’m voting like a wealthy democrat with two residences.
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