Posted on 09/26/2016 9:15:43 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Local and national polling shows a neck and neck race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in Minnesota.
MINNEAPOLIS, M.N. — For over 50 years, Minnesota has remained a safe haven for democratic presidential votes. Even in 1984, Minnesota was the only state in the union to vote for Walter Mondale instead of Ronald Reagan, who won in a landslide.
However, a new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump is much closer than originally thought in the Land of 10,000 Lakes.
The new poll numbers released by KSTP this morning show Clinton leading Trump 46% to 39% with a margin of error of +/- 4%.
A Breitbart/Gravis poll released early this afternoon shows that Trump and Clinton are tied in Minnesota, each with 43% of likely voters casting a ballot in their favor.
The news means Trump is gaining rapidly. About a week ago the Star Tribune reported Trump had cut Clinton’s lead in half to 44% vs 38%.
The Breitbart article points to the issue of Obama’s plan to increase the number of refugees in the US as a key indicator in the polling swing. This morning, Reuters announced that a union that represents 5,000 federal immigration officers endorsed Trump ahead of tonight’s debate.
If Breitbart and KSTP polls hold through the end of October, Minnesota could be in play as a battleground state for the first time in 50 years and potentially be the deciding factor of who will be the next President of the United States.
Most nationwide polls have Minnesota as a solid blue state in favor of Hillary Clinton. A CNN electoral map shows MN to be a solid democrat state. However, a recent Real Clear Politics map is now showing Minnesota as a leaning democrat state.
While Clinton potentially leads Trump in the current electoral college count 198 to 165 based on polling, there are currently 175 toss up votes. If you remove Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes from Clinton’s column, she would have 23 more electoral college votes than Trump.
Minnesota was already seen as a State in play after the results of the March 1st presidential primary. Republicans in Minnesota selected Florida Senator Marco Rubio while Democrats selected New Hampshire Senator Bernie Sanders as their primary winners.
Trump came in third place behind Texas Senator Ted Cruz and Rubio with 21.3% of the vote, while Clinton came in with just 38.4% percent of the vote while Sanders came in with 61.6% of the vote.
Fast forward six months and both Rubio and Sanders are out of the race and are focused on getting their parties respective candidate elected.
Both Clinton and Trump have struggled to receive votes from different demographic groups and issues. Clinton has struggled with the image of her honesty and the millennial vote, while Trump has had issues with minorities and women.
The KSTP/SurveyUSA poll shows Trump doing well with independent and men, while Clinton has done well with people over 50 and women. Both Trump and Clinton are tied at 39% each with the millennial vote.
These new poll numbers could prove well for down ballot races in Minnesota looking for an extra boost this presidential cycle. Candidates with close races like Stewart Mills in CD8 and Jason Lewis in CD2 could benefit from the undecided votes. Republicans in St. Paul could also benefit from this uncertainty as they look to maintain control of the House and win the Senate.
//’s not over until Trump puts his hand on the Bible on November 8th.
//
Try Jan 20
It would be nice, but I don’t see MN flipping unless there is a 40+ state blowout. It’s been 44 years (not 50) since MN went R (Nixon over McGovern in 1972).
The governorship and both statehouses are now D, and the Secy of State (who used to run ACORN in MN before it was shut down by the feds) is not enforcing the voting laws. The D canvassers are handing absentee ballots like candy to the Somalis immigrants in ‘Little Mogadishu’ (Cedar/Riverside), and no one in a position of authority is willing to say how many immigrants are even in the state.
Do NOT divert resources to traditional blue states at this late date. The campaign already has its path to 270. If MN is going to go for Trump it will be because of what's going on nationally and what the hard working folks in Minnesota are doing on the ground, not because of any last minute heroics.
Better to be blown out in Minnesota than to loose Florida by a whisker.
It's the Old Bag vs the Alpha Male.
Amazing stuff! Thanks...some of these close states have to break his way.. should be a 300 EV victory
Yeah, I know. :-)
Yeah, I know. :-)
I have a feeling that white democrats are fed up, and going Trump.
As others have noted, it doesn’t pay to spend resources in MN. If it goes Trump, fine. But the Dems have too much opportunity for vote fraud.
more likely an unfortunate incident with the broom stick.
I live in SW WI. The La Crosse media is in the tank Dem, yet there are zero HRC signs and I have seen 1 bumper sticker from a campaign worker/activist. A lot of downticket D signs for Feingold and Schilling (State legislature) and a commie running for judge. A few Trump signs. Hillary For Prison signs outnumber HRC for POTUS by a wide margin.
Lots of Bernie signs/supporters who will sit it out/write in Bernie/vote Johnson or Stein. Voiced hatred for Hillary.
It’s urban vs rural, IMO. Also, the lines are drawn and hardened. Lots of radicals have moved into the country/small towns and everything is polarized. On our side, there are still large extended families, while the newcomers are single, small nuclear families and sometimes, the leftist black sheep of an established conservative family come home to escape the cities.
Not being considered: former hard-line leftists have just come into their inheritances and are gobsmacked at the size of the government’s cut. I hear outspoken worries about taxes from people who never paid any until now, even if the parents had a family trust in a leftist state. A few leftwing business owners edge to the right after realizing the percentage that goes to regulatory takings. They sign the front of the checks. The grant-supported *businesses* still support the Ds.
Trump doesn’t need to campaign more here because IA and MN do influence Western WI. They are just across the river and the demographics are the same.
Man, I wish! I keep thinking of all the harm Obama can do during those two months.
Minnesota was the one state that Reagan did not carry in his 1984 49 state landslide.
As you said, if true, this election will be another landslide.
January 20
It’s my birthday so every 4 years I either want to celebrate or drown my sorrows in a bottle of whiskey
Excellent news, I look forward to other polls of the state.
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