holy crap. these are estimates based upon turnouts. They have a program that does “what ifs”.
and they are presenting this “what if” as gospel.
http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/states-of-the-nation-explainer/
I knew someone who made a presentation to a major player in avionics during the 2nd oil crisis. I was quite fond of the slide with the econometric analyses all over creation, based on not fewer than 5 different assumptions and results.
I happened to sit in back of the ‘player’ and noticed he was very pointed in his questions to the presenter.
That slide was a hot mess and was, by nature, inaccurate.
That’s the problem with econometrics or other forms of analyses that use the past to predict the future during a present of great variance. IT DOESN’T WORK.