Posted on 11/28/2015 1:51:19 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
America’s short-term Trump problem will end in Iowa.
As I wrote yesterday, I think America is facing a two-fold Trump problem. The proximate problem is that Donald Trump has been the frontrunner for the Republican presidential nomination since this summer, and the durability of his support suggests that he could in fact be the party’s nominee. The underlying problem is that America has a two-party political system, and one of the parties is receptive to a candidate such as Trump.
I don’t have a solution to the latter problem. But the former problem, the proximate Trump problem, is going to be resolved soon enough, as follows: Ted Cruz is now tied with Trump in Iowa. On February 1st, if not before, Trump’s dreams of winning the White House will be destroyed. To unpack that, let me review what we know about Trump and Cruz.
Trump is a candidate whose entire pitch, such as it is, rests on the illusion that he is a winner. He claims to be a successful businessman; in reality, he would have been better off investing the money he inherited in an index fund forty years ago. He claims to know more about ISIS “than the generals doâ€; in reality, the little he knows about the armed services is drawn from his experience at a military-themed boarding school. He thinks that he has “better†hair than Marco Rubio; I mean, can a sentient adult offer a straight-faced response to that?
We already know how Trump responds when his braggadocio is exposed for the posturing it is: he lashes out. He’s still brooding about Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly, who committed the cardinal sin of asking him questions during a debate. When Ben Carson challenged his status as frontrunner in the polls, Trump responded by flapping his belt around and comparing Carson to a child molester.
Cruz, meanwhile, is a student of Sun Tzu: “Every battle is won before it is fought. It is won by choosing the terrain on which the battle is fought.†He has won unwinnable arguments before. He has won unwinnable elections before. Cruz does not pick fights he doesn’t think he can win, with the asterisk that sometimes he picks fights with an eye to winning the battle rather than the war. His fight to defund Obamacare, for example, was a fight he picked with an eye to winning the Republican nomination in 2016. And Cruz is now in a position to win the Iowa caucus, which is the kind of fight that he is optimally equipped to win: like Rick Santorum in 2012 and Mike Huckabee in 2008, his support in the polls is an indicator of the passion of the grassroots conservatives, particularly evangelicals, he has carefully cultivated throughout this campaign.
Trump has two choices. He can withdraw from the race for the Republican nomination prior to Iowa’s vote, on February 1st. If so, he sacrifices the prospect of running as an independent candidate. He pledged not to do so back in September, and has recently suggested (entirely predictably) that he might renege on that pledge. Trump’s stated reason for thinking about breaking his own pledge, however, was as follows: “GOP getting ready to treat me unfairly.†That would be a piteous situation. But for the voters of Iowa to select Cruz over Trump would hardly qualify as unfair treatment on the part of the establishment.
Alternatively Trump can take his chances against Cruz. If so he will come to grief, and he will have no one to blame but himself. Though Trump has more than a dozen rivals for the Republican nomination, none have come so close to earning his approval as Cruz has. Trump has even floated the idea of picking Cruz as his running mate. “Well, I like him,†Trump said last week, and that may be the case. Cruz is nonetheless running for the nomination, not to be Trump’s running mate, and Trump has no chance of dissuading the cold, careful Cruz from that goal.
Imagine the vitriol in a Trump concession speech.
This article is drivel.
Cruz’s tax plan has been rated as excellent for the impact it will have on the economy and jobs. His plan to cut government and balance the budget is equally impressive. Cruz has a history of fighting for jobs and saved E commerce when he was at the FTC.
I’ll vote for Trump or Cruz so it’s all good. Cruz may win Iowa, so did Sanctorum.
Trump, Cruz or lose, let’s rock.
Playing defense. Sure loser strategy.
“Imagine the vitriol in a Trump concession speech.”
Imagine Karl Rove’s head exploding live on Fox News if Trump gets the nomination. It will be followed by lesser but still impressive head explosions from Charles Kadiddlehopper Krauthammer, George “I hate Reagan” Will and the well-known bed-wetter, Bret “Carny Barker” Baier.
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Unfortunately, the article is spot on.
We need not be concerned; soon I expect Trump to jump over to his real home: The Democrat party.
He has been talking Hitlery down heavily in recent days, and I expect to see him jump in the very near future.
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If there is a Trump concession speech, it will come from the Democrat gathering.
He is chomping at the bit for Hitlery to drop out; talks about her health constantly.
No sweat!
Cruz will take him down smoothly at the debates between them.
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>> “Cruz is the most conservative GOPe” <<
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In the mind of a fool.
Cruz is the only conservative in the running.
America is rapidly waking up to that fact.
“. On February 1st, if not before, Trump’s dreams of winning the White House will be destroyed”
By one state?
A state that chose losers the last 2 elections?
Don’t think so.
“He also said means testing Social Security was not off the table on a Hannity show. “
I didn’t know that. I dropped Cruz and went to Trump because of Cruz’s weak stance on illegal immigration. But this clinches it. Those that pay the most into Social Security never get all their money back because it is highly socialized. So cutting their payments even more us outright thievery.
“There can be, however, some very good lieutenants put in place subsequent to the Republican National Convention, essentially a “Shadow Cabinetâ€, which would sweep in and take command immediately on Inauguration Day”
wow. As if Cruz & his supporters haven’t creeped me out enough already... smh
“If there is a Trump concession speech, it will come from the Democrat gathering.”
Now you’re really losing it.
I didn’t expect it this soon ;)
Cruz is the type of candidate that does well in Iowa. The Evangelicals (Huckabee and Santorum) always gets Iowa only to lose New Hampshire.
If Cruz wins Iowa (which he could given his organizational strength) the Establishment will get scared out of their minds because the choice will be Trump or Cruz!
The funniest thing will be watching the Bush supporters running towards Trump to keep out Cruz....lol
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Why don’t you listen to what your hero is saying?
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The people who lose those jobs he is going to cut won't be too impressed...I can't imagine where he's going to get the votes...
Is Cruz your hero?
You are really losing it, acting just like a liberal with your slimy insults and limited-IQ posts.
His tax plan will create jobs, so those government jobs that are cut can find work in the private sector.
Cruz did not vote for TPA, the reasons for his Corker bill vote have been explained and re-explained and he's going to make the best President this country could hope to have.
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