Math for Trump to win in General Election

September 03, 2015 | Self

[entropy12]

2014 Population breakdown by Ethnicity:

White 62%

Hispanic 17%

Black 12%

For trump to win in General Election, he needs: 68% of white voters, 36% of Hispanic voters, 15% of Black voters

Is it doable? Will depend on who is more energized in November 2016, Republicans or Democrats.

Comments?

[entropy12]

Some wise man said “democracies come to an end when majority of people figure out they can get free stuff by voting for certain politicians”.

[donaldo]

Exactly! And the electoral map doesn’t look good for a non-Democrat. It takes 270 electoral votes to win and any Democrat has a decided edge from the outset. (538 total number of electoral votes = # of Senators, 100, # of Representatives, 435, and District of Columbia, 3.) Love him or leave him George Will is right: 18 states and the District of Columbia with 242 electoral votes have voted Democratic in six consecutive presidential elections. That’s just 28 electoral votes shy of a majority. Let’s face it, this is no longer a country where a Reagan can carry 49 states. Those malleable moronic masses will always vote Democrat blaming their congenital stupidity on the villainy of their betters. The Democrat divide and conquer strategy is in play. They’ve effectively got the electorate divided into “minorities” that make up well over 70% of the population. Trump doesn’t have a chance.

http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2013/nov/10/george-will/george-will-paints-dire-electoral-picture-gop-says/

[conservatism_IS_compassion]

He only needs 81% of the White vote (whatever that means) and he can lose 100% of the other classes (skin colors, language groups, ad nauseum)and win the Presidency.

If you had optimal gerrymandering, you’d only need about half that to win the Electoral College . . .

[Mollypitcher1]

You’re right, of course. But I think Trump has a better chance with Cruz as VP and the good Doctor as Surgeon General. Many down home are also talking about Col. Alan West.

[Steelfish]

True. But the demographics have changed with a tsunami tide of illegals voting. Reagan even carried California.

[kabar]

Yes, every Rep including Trump has an uphill fight to win the Presidency. The Dems have won the popular vote 5 out of the last 6 elections. Demography is destiny. Thanks to mass immigration, the Dems are well on their way to becoming the permanent majority party.

[Mollypitcher1]

Trump doesn’t have a chance.

.........................................................

Well, let’s make it look better and switch those 29 votes of Florida from Blue to Red. Trump is leading in Florida and he even has some, if not many, black votes.

[kabar]

True. But the demographics have changed with a tsunami tide of illegals voting. Reagan even carried California.

We have brought in 35 million LEGAL PERMANENT IMMIGRANTS since 1990. It is legal immigration that is killing the Reps. 87% of the 1.1 million legal immigrants we take in annually are minorities as classified by the USG. Immigrants and minorities vote more than two to one Dem.

It is ridiculous to say that the illegals are the difference. Every year we bring in hundreds of thousands of future Dem voters through LEGAL IMMIGRATION. By 2019 half of the children 18 and under will be minorities. Each cohort that turns 18 is more Dem than the previous one. By 2043 half of the country will be minorities. The focus should be on reducing legal immigration. Demography is destiny.

[entropy12]

Placing aside any voter block benefits, Cruz will be a great asset to Trump during campaign and then in the administration. Cruz has a solid following and that would help Trump a great deal. I like Carson for his common sense conservatism, but he will not be able make the congress critters go his way. He will be weak in the bully pulpit. But Carson is the only other candidate who can help Trump get more votes. Just look at Carson’s poll numbers.

[entropy12]

Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin, Nevada, Colorado, and Florida.

[donaldo]

I could (and hope I am) be wrong. It’ll come down to Florida and/or Ohio. Incidentally, I was on the record as a nonvoter for Trump until today. If he’s the candidate, he’s my man.

[Mollypitcher1]

Good for you. I have switched to him as well.I think his strength far outweigh his peccadillos.

[entropy12]

Legal immigrants should be admitted based on skills & wealth. That is what countries like New Zealand and Australia are doing. Currently it is mostly relatives coming in. What is really terrible is that the sponsoring relative is not held accountable to support the new immigrant financially.

I personally know relatives of doctors practicing in US brought in as legal immigrants and promptly placed on government benefits.

[entropy12]

Flipping Florida and Ohio from Romney map is NOT enough. GOP also needs to win 2 out of these 4 states: NV, IA, WI, CO.

[Mollypitcher1]

You’re right about Carson being highly popular, but i don’t think he is strong enough nor qualified, frankly.I like Cruz better than Carson who is too pro amnesty and I question on 2nd Amendment rights. If Florida is at stake, I think Cruz would be a better asset than Carson. But just let’s hope ,by more hard work, we can take down the Dems. and the RINOS at the same time. I’m tired of being “sold out.” I like Cruz greatly because of his Constitution knowledge. He’d be a tremendous asset. Carson can’t compete IMHO.

[Mollypitcher1]

I think Nevada might be a possibility. At least, I hope.

[donaldo]

Yes, and I think NV, IA, and CO are doable. But make no mistake, Trump will be guilty of every sin known to man: war on women, war on minorities, war on foreigners, etc. Maybe some of those minorities will begin to see themselves as Americans and break those Democrat tribal ties. We’ll see.

[donaldo]

There’s something else about Trump. No one who has not held elective office (except former military leaders) has ever been elected president. Trump, Carson and Fiorina are swimming upstream here. But, there’s always a first time though.

[entropy12]

I am optimistic in 2016 mainly because the democrat constituencies have not been helped with 8 years of Obama. Blacks have suffered the most.

The only issue democrats can successfully exploit is war on women.

Trump has taken away the issue of scaring the seniors. He said again today that he wants to save Social security and medicare. Paul Ryan lost many seniors in 2012 on that issue.

[DoodleDawg]

He’s not going to get 36% of Hispanic voters or 15% of the Black vote so he’d better nail more of the White vote.