Posted on 08/27/2015 9:08:01 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The rise of Donald Trump is, in part, a function of a vacuum.
He is thriving in a Republican field that is large, talented and, so far, underwhelming. There’s 17 candidates and nothing on. Except Donald Trump.
Now, this has much to do with the media, and with Trump’s unique qualities as a showman. He has the advantage of not caring, about anything apparently — the facts, his reputation, or, ultimately, winning the presidency. In consequence, he is a free man.
The Jorge Ramos incident was Trump in microcosm. He did what no other Republican politician could get away with (having a security guy manhandle a Latino reporter) and displayed a cavalier disregard for reality by denying he was having Ramos removed, even as he had him removed. But the episode was mesmerizing, and Trump — in his madcap way — was commanding in how he handled it.
If any other candidate had done that or something similar, it would have been a signature event of his campaign, but for Trump it was just another day on the trail, to be eclipsed by some other memorable event tomorrow.
Trump has at least half a dozen such indelible moments — his bizarre announcement, the John McCain diss, the Lindsey Graham cellphone, the Megyn Kelly fight (x2), the Mobile rally — when the rest of the field has almost none. No speech, no policy proposal, no argument, nothing from the other candidates has come close to capturing the imagination of voters, giving Trump the space to loom all the larger.
The weakness starts at the top, or what was supposed to be the top. In the normal course of things, the establishment front-runner provides coherence to the field. Hence, the expectation that the field would have Jeb Bush and a not-Bush, or maybe two. For the moment, this assumption has collapsed, as the current shape of the field is Trump and everyone else.
This is quite the comedown for Bush. His “shock and awe” has turned into getting sand kicked on him at the beach by a loudmouth and bully. It’s not just that Bush is trailing Trump badly in the polls; he has acceded to the terms of the debate being set by the mogul. It wasn’t long ago that Bush swore off talking about Trump, as basically beneath him. Now, he is sniping with him daily.
Before he got in the race, Bush spoke of only wanting to do it if he could run joyfully. Little did he know that he would be joyously grappling with an ill-informed blowhard who takes it as his daily obligation to insult Bush and trample on the pieties he holds dear.
In the argument with Trump over mass deportation, clearly Bush is right. But the split screen with Trump doesn’t necessarily do him any favors. Trump is such a forceful communicator that he comes off as some sort of throwback alpha male, whereas Bush is such an earnest wonk he looks and sounds like a sensitive dad from a contemporary sitcom. It’s like watching a WWE wrestler get a stern talking to from Ned Flanders.
Bush is not a natural performer to begin with (he struggles with set speeches), and he believes his contribution to the race is to be the nonthreatening Republican, which is often indistinguishable from the uninteresting Republican. So while Bush has methodically built the superstructure of an impressive campaign — with fundraising, organization and policy proposals — he has so far barely warmed up an ember among voters.
Scott Walker, in contrast, had a surge early in the campaign. It dissipated over time when his limited preparation on national issues didn’t match his outsized early press exposure. A so-so debate performance and the rise of Trump have continued his long fade to middle of the pack in the latest early state polling (tied for fourth in New Hampshire and tied for seventh in South Carolina).
Walker’s ability to appeal to both the establishment and activist wings of the party had looked like a strength, but now it seems a precarious balancing act, made all the more difficult by a panicky reaction to Trump.
No sooner had Walker pronounced himself “aggressively normal” in the debate than he seemed to opt for just “aggressive” in an attempt to play to the passions tapped by Trump. Who could have predicted that the Midwestern candidate who tells stories about buying shirts for $1 at Kohl’s would have to play populist catch-up with the New York billionaire who travels by eponymous helicopter?
Walker had already changed his mind about immigration, shifting from support for a “comprehensive” approach to strong opposition to amnesty. Trump has pushed him further, and Walker has gotten tangled up on the issue of birthright citizenship.
Walker had already changed his mind about immigration, shifting from support for a “comprehensive” approach to strong opposition to amnesty. Trump has pushed him further, and Walker has gotten tangled up on the issue of birthright citizenship.
At the Iowa State Fair, he seemed at one point to say that he was opposed to it. Then, he told John Harwood of CNBC he wouldn’t take a position on it. Finally, on “This Week with George Stephanopoulos,” he danced around a question on the 14th Amendment before saying that anything that goes beyond simply enforcing our immigration laws is a red herring.
Earlier this week, Walker blasted President Barack Obama for hosting Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit, even though as governor he had been friendly to China and obligingly wore a Chinese-American flag pin in an appearance on Chinese state TV.
It’s one thing to play to the mood of voters; it’s another to give the appearance of not quite knowing who you are, which is much more deadly than an August dip in the polls.
As for Marco Rubio, for whom expectations have been so high, he has been the least reactive to Trump. His campaign is still betting on the long game. It believes his natural talent will tell over time, but he doesn’t have a natural geographic or ideological base, and his 21st-century economic agenda — although thoughtful — is not likely to stoke enthusiasm among primary voters.
Ted Cruz may be benefiting most from the Trump surge in his strategic positioning. He has a cogent theory of the case, which is that if he is nice to Trump — and the other outsider candidates — he eventually can inherent his supporters. This makes intuitive sense, although Cruz — exceedingly careful in crafting his words and in calculating his interest — is hardly a natural anti-politician.
It is still August, of course. The rules of gravity say Trump will come back down to earth. The media interest that is so intense now could burn out. His lack of seriousness should be a drag over time, and he will still have to weather more debates and presumably — should he stay strong — a barrage of negative ads.
Even if he fades, though, someone else will have to fill the screen. To this point, No one else has been big or vivid enough to do it.
The media can either talk about conservative challengers to moderate RINOs or it can talk about a celebrity named TRUMP that low information voters already know.
Which do you think the media would prefer to cover?
The challengers to Hillary aren’t making much press either. Has that field ‘failed’?
It’s good for ratings and good for sucking up all the air in the room. Trump certainly looks better than Jeb but the media would rather be able to talk about Clinton vs. Bush round II. Shutting the conservative Republican challenges to Bush out of the primary coverage serves that end.
In short, no.
Rich Lowry, your slip is showing. Go home and tell Mrs. GOPe, your Mama, to fix it for you.
“The rules of gravity say Trump will come back down to earth.” Politics does not equal gravity.
He under estimates Trump. Trump reminds of all people, Huey Long. When he was shot, the FDR crowd breathed a sigh of relief. FDR could never have out demagogued Long, and Long had given up the white suit and stem-winding style by August, 1935. I have seen a news-reel of a speech he gave at that time, and Huey looked downright presidential. Trump has the ability to tone it down, too, and still come across as strong.
Rich Lowry’s parking his log cabin over at Polutico now? I guess NRO chased away so many conservatives that they have to find an audience somewhere...
No, this -has much to do- with Trump speaking up about the border!
The vacuum is not the other GOP candidates.
The vacuum is the whole GOPe!
Mark Steyn said it perfectly on "Rush" this week:
You've got two political parties. One delivers what its constituency wants (welfare and big gov't). The other doesn't deliver what its constituency wants (freedom and limited gov't).
End of story.
“Good analysis?”
No. Rich Lowry sounds like a jealous teenage girl.
Which come to think of it makes sense.
So, now Rich Lowry is writing for Politico? Why doesn’t he just quit his job with that fake “conservative” rag that one used to be pretty good—twenty or thirty years ago.
He belongs at Politico.
This is stupid. It’s way to early to judge the field. Some of the single digit dwellers could catch fire. New people could jump in. We aren’t even at the beginning yet. Who knows what could happen. If this were a football game, we’d be at Wednesday practice now.
Rich as continued to expose himself and his magazine as the boringly predictable folk who stand for more of the pap we keep getting explained to us, as the great unwashed masses who must be led to our eventual Presidential candidate, who meets the desires our the deep-pocketed masters, but who will go forward to lose yet another race.
Of course, if it's JEB, it matters not, as he could run on the same ticket as Hillary, though I'm uncertain who would be at the top of that ticket, as both are worthless.
Sometimes all you need is just a few key words:
“vacuum, underwhelming, showman, not caring, cavalier disregard, bizarre, bully”.
That should save some from reading the whole article.
I'll give that little twerp some REALITY.
It's this.
The GOP-e got alternately bent down and grabbed their ankles for Obama, or got on their knees, Lewinsky-style, for him, and refused to stand up against him, even as he attempted to "fundamentally change" the United States.
Even after they were elected in landslides to stop him; and lying through their foul teeth, had campaigned on stopping him.
And now they feel guilty. Ha! Made you look.
They don't feel guilty: but they've been CAUGHT.
What to do? Accuse Trump, of all of the things Obama was really guilty of, but they never called him out on.
It's just like the press is an obedient lapdog under a Dem administration. But let a Republican get in office, and -- as quick as Clark Kent exposing himself in a phone booth -- they're SUPERDUPERREPORTERGUARDIANSOFJUSTICEANDTRUTHTM, challenging EVERY word which comes out of the President's mouth, including 'the' and 'and'.
Because, after all, the American people have entrusted them with a sacred task...
You nailed it. Lowry lost his panties on this one.
See my post #15.
They are all scared $hitless of Trump’s candidacy.
The Dems are actually starting to imagine Trump as president and how he would destroy their progressive gains. They are ruthless and without honor or morals... Trump should actually fear for his physical safety!
The GOPee are so scared of Trump they will cheat him out of the nomination using any underhanded method they can come up with. If he manages to get the nomination they will give him no support and will actively campaign against their own nominee. They will even stoop to convincing some GOPee stooge to run 3rd party.
The problem for the Dems and the GOPee is that Trump will unearth all the dirt on them both and air their dirty laundry 24/7 for the world to gawk at... They may be able to destroy him but like the old cold-war era MAD defense doctrine they will also destroy themselves at the same time.
If Trump can pull it off against such great odds then we will have a last chance to restore our republic....
It has come to this... that the last chance to save ourselves rides on a very powerful but also very flawed man.. Britain once was at just such a point and miraculously was saved by an abrasive blowhard drunkard named Winston.
National Review’s Achilles. This is as good as they get, and it’s still swill.
Let’s dig Bill Buckley up and bring him back to life. Hoo doo, paddles, galvanic response, zombie virus—whatever it takes.
Quote:
“You’ve got two political parties. One delivers what its constituency wants (welfare and big gov’t). The other doesn’t deliver what its constituency wants (freedom and limited gov’t).”
Another succinct observation from Steyn. But no matter.
We will still be inundated with reams of -what does Dr. Krauthammer call it? Oh yeah, “word salad” - alleged “analysis” from such clueless fossils as George Will and the rest of the “conservative” chattering class.
GOPe - Relentlessly tone deaf and proud of it.
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