New rules favor GOP moderates in presidential primary (New Hampshire)

The Newburyport Daily News ^ | November 15, 2014 | David M. Shribman

[2ndDivisionVet]

LEBANON, N.H. -- Can you discern, deep in the new Republican Party -- amid the conservative warriors and tea-infused crusaders -- a faint moderate heartbeat?

Hardly anyone is asking that question this month, in the wake of the Republican tsunami that swept Democrats out of office and swept a Republican majority into the Senate chamber. But two unrelated events this month make the question worth posing, if only to explore the possibility and to understand the political landscape here in the state that only 15 months from now will hold the first presidential primary.

The first of those events took place in the western of New Hampshire’s two congressional districts, where Marilinda Garcia, a Republican House challenger, failed to topple Democratic Rep. Annie McLane Kuster. Garcia, with such new-age GOP credentials as endorsements by the Club for Growth and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, pulled only 45 percent of the vote, which is actually a higher number than any poll reading she recorded this year.

Garcia’s profile -- a Hispanic surname that the Republicans need so badly, tea party bona fides that strike fear in liberals and a strong anti-abortion position -- was beguiling for a while, but before long word went out from the Granite State to the grandees of the national Republican Party: Don’t devote much money to her. You won’t need her vote in the chamber, and her tea party inclinations will cause you heartache.

The second indicator is in the state’s bookstores, where copies of Richard Norton Smith’s “On His Own Terms,” a magisterial biography of Nelson A. Rockefeller, are being stocked on the shelves. Rockefeller didn’t prevail in two presidential tries in this state, but nonetheless is remembered fondly by Republicans of a certain age....

[campaignPete R-CT]

yes. if the nation had shifted about 4% more Republican in 2008 homogenously ... CO IA NH would have decided the race with McCain needing 2 of the 3.

which begs the question why focus on NC and such states? certain states only are a tossup if the race goes big for the DEMS nationally. if a state cannot be a deciding state, why focus on it? 2012 was much more complicated with numerous states having the potential to be the deciders. (FL and OH have dropped off the list ... they are now more GOP than the national average.)

2012 Romney woulda been stuck at 266, 4 short needing one more state. One of the following:
state ..... margin
1.Colorado, 5.37%
2.Pennsylvania, 5.39%
3.New Hampshire, 5.58%
4.Iowa, 5.81%
5.Nevada, 6.68%
6.Wisconsin, 6.94%

perhaps Wisconsin and Mormon Nevada outperformed due to Mitt-Ryan ticket. Pennsylvania may very well be a genuine swing now with the war on coal.

[dalereed]

Nominate a moderate and say hello to President Hillary!

[AuH2ORepublican]

The thing is, states don’t always move homogenously, so doing all your campaigning in NH, PA, CO and IA and picking up one or more of them won’t guarantee that you’ll carry NC, VA, FL and OH.

[campaignPete R-CT]

yes. true.
but quantitatively it is remote that in 2016, the GOP Potus candidate will carry NH and/or COL and fail to win OH. Good polling and targeting is invaluable.

I also tried to review the use of Palin in fall 2008. She went immediately to CO. Grand Junction, Greeley, Col SPrings, Loveland. Golden. All the right places.

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_10771372

Then did they get distracted by the national interviews with Couric, etc.? And the hockey game in Philly?

[Little Bill]

You have that absolutely correct, the rats win on the Dartmouth, Keene State, and Plymouth State vote, in East Vermont. Enforce residency law, don’t let foreigners decide out elections.