Will Osama Appear In Pakistan?

Travis McGee | October 25, 2001 | Travis McGee

[Travis McGee]

Just something to consider, in the event that Osama is successfully smuggled out of Afghanistan.

[dead]

Did tickets go on sale yet?

[Travis McGee]

bttt

[Travis McGee]

bttt

[Travis McGee]

bttt

[Travis McGee]

bttt

[Travis McGee]

bttt

[dead]

Seriously, he won't appear in front of hundreds of thousands, because no matter what audience he stands in front of, there will be a certain percentage that are just dying to take him out.

There are thousands of armed Northern Alliance soldiers alone, who would blend in perfectly with the crowd. In addition, there is a $10 million reward on his head, for those who don't have an ideological or theological dog in this race.

[Travis McGee]

The same was true for Mohammed Farah Aidid in Mogadishu, but Aidid got to pick "his" slums, and the other warlords were no more able to catch or kill him than were Delta and the Rangers.

I hope you're right, I hope he dies buried in a cave bunker in Afghanistan.

I just throw this out in case it happens: what will we do then?

[patent]

I'm just as happy fighting that war today as tomorrow. When are we going to be more motivated or better prepared? When Hillary becomes president? As I see it we have 3-7 years before Bush is gone, and as much as I think he is avoiding the real fight here, whoever replaces him is going to be worse. If Osama wants to fire this up and bring a couple thousand martyrs with him, go for it. It won't be pretty, and we will suffer, but I think it likely we will be in better shape afterwards.

patent

[KirkandBurke]

How about a cameo on West Wing?

[Travis McGee]

There are thousands of armed Northern Alliance soldiers alone, who would blend in perfectly with the crowd.

How can you say that? The NA are mainly ethnic Tadzhiks who speak no Pakistani dialects.

As far as the rewards, OBL has had huge rewards on his head for years, with no results.

[Mixer]

If he makes it to Pakistan that presents a whole new problem in this war. Will we (the USA) then turn on Pakistan for harboring a terrorist?

[AGAviator]

With every day of bombing, Bin Ladin is getting more and more support in Pakistan from people who previously were opposed to the Taliban. There have been collateral casualties and these people are going to believe their own kinfolk rather than the US media.

There was an article yesterday I think in the UK Guardian that says the frontier provinces are really siding with Bin Ladin more and more, even though many of them never did before. The only thing that will head this off is some ex-mujahideen commanders who will support the US. Even they won't be able to pull it off if we keep doing things without regard to local sentiments.

[TADSLOS]

Pakistan doesn't have a force field surrounding it. It can be attacked by the U.S. also, if required.

[Sender]

You may be right that he would want to head for Pakistan. He could accomplish several things there, as you said to whip up a revolutionary mob to oust Musharraf and to grab control of the nukes. With that much power he could force all infidel troops to retreat off Pakistani soil post haste, giving him yet another huge symbolic victory for his adoring minions. I still think what he really wants most is to take over Saudi Arabia and control Mecca and Medina directly as the "dark tower" of Islam, with of course Osama as the dark pope of a new hyper-Islamist kingdom.

[DoctorMichael]

This is why it is important to keep the bombing going even during the muslim Rama-lama-ding-dong holiday..........keep him pinned down!!!!!

[Vinomori]

Travis, good example of a valid and thoughtful vanity post. You have provoked a lot of thought. Let's hope the CIA reads it as well. The CIA was emasculated by Clinton but is slowly growing back some power. Regular doses of FR could speed up the process.

[dead]

How can you say that? The NA are mainly ethnic Tadzhiks who speak no Pakistani dialects.

The Northern Alliance includes soldiers of Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara ethnic backgrounds, as well as a limited, but increasing number of Pashtuns.

As far as the rewards, OBL has had huge rewards on his head for years, with no results.

Because he hasn’t appeared in front of crowds of “100s of thousands” or even thousands. He will continue to refrain from doing that in order to stay alive.

[101viking]

Well thought out and extremely plausible. The only thing I would add is the India factor. The Indians are only waiting for an excuse, and a scenario such as this would be a golden opportunity. I doubt seriously that if OBL staged a succesful coup in Pakistan that Indians would hesitate. They would also have the support of the Americans, Russians and the Chinese.