Posted on 11/19/2012 3:58:19 AM PST by NYer
I live in Long Island and in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy my home was without electricity, heat or lights for 14 days, 2 hours, and 30 minutes. Sitting in the dark every night shivering in my living room (which hit a low of 49 degrees), I had plenty of time to brood over the disastrous 2012 election results, the way Catholics voted in particular, and why it happened.
Here’s what I came up with:
GOP internal tracking polls that had Romney winning were wrong because pollsters could not factor into their mathematical formulas the effectiveness of Obama’s Election Day ground operation. Obama people may be awful at governing, but they excel at mobilizing turnout.
Leftist community organizers, often financed by our tax dollars, have been fine tuning their “get out the vote” techniques since the mid-1960s. And during the past four years, they went beyond identifying voting blocs by zip codes or neighborhoods. They actually compiled dossiers on millions of individuals who were sympathetic to their agenda and personalized messages designed to push their political hot buttons.
Obama’s Chicago gang focused on turning out pro-abortion single women, Latinos, African-Americans, and recipients of government welfare programs – and keeping home 2008 Obama supporters who were leaning against him this year—particularly blue-collar Catholics.
The disenchanted were inundated with campaign propaganda that painted Romney as an out of touch plutocrat who would be a worse president than Obama. The success of this voter suppression strategy explains why Obama was the first re-elected president to receive fewer votes than in his first election.
As for the Catholic vote, utilizing currently available data (which is still not complete), I’ve compiled the following chart that compares votes cast by Catholics in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections in a dozen or so states where exit polling was done and actually allows us to make such comparisons. (Though you will see exit polls reported on by various news outlets, basically all of them were conducted by Edison Media Research, which supplied the results broken down below.)
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2008 Generic
Catholic Vote
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2012 Generic
Catholic Vote
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Catholic
Vote
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||
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State
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% of Catholics
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McCain %
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Obama %
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Romney %
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Obama %
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Romney 2012 vs.
McCain 2008
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AZ
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23
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49
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49
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50
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50
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+1
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CA
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28
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37
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58
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38
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62
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+1
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|
CT
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48
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50
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46
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49
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51
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-1
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|
FL
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28
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49
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50
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52
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47
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+3
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|
IA
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23
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41
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50
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52
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47
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+11
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|
ME
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26
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37
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61
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41
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56
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+4
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MI
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29
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46
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51
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55
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44
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+9
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NV
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25
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42
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57
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46
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51
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+4
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|
NH
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38
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50
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50
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54
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46
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+4
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NJ
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44
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55
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45
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43
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45
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-1
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NM
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32
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29
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69
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32
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64
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+3
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NY
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42
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41
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59
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53
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47
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+12
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NC
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9
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N/A
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N/A
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66
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34
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--
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OH
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26
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52
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47
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55
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44
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+3
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PA
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35
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52
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48
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50
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49
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-2
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VA
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15
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N/A
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N/A
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55
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45
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--
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WI
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32
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47
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53
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56
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44
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+9
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As is clear, in most state results there was a slight shift in the Catholic vote towards Mitt Romney, but quite a large movement to the Republican candidate in Iowa, Michigan, New York, and Wisconsin – all battleground states with the exception of New York. The worst change for Republicans was in Pennsylvania, which registered a 2 percent increase in Catholic votes for the Democrat incumbent, President Obama.
Nationwide, in 2008, Senator McCain received 45 percent of the generic Catholic vote, 52 percent of church-going Catholics, 53 percent of White Catholics, and 32 percent of Hispanics. Governor Romney received 48 percent of the generic Catholic vote, 57 percent of Church attendees, 52 percent of cafeteria Catholics, 59 percent of white Catholics, and 27 percent of Hispanics.
While white Catholic support for the Republican nominee was higher than McCain’s in 2008, turnout was not enough in the battleground states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Ohio to put them into the GOP Electoral College column. On the other hand, the Hispanic vote increased by about 9 million over 2008 totals. This helped put Obama over the top in the tightly contested states of Florida, Nevada, and Colorado.
In my next column for The Catholic Thing, I will try to provide a broader analysis of the impact of Catholic voter turnout in key swing states, which is a more complex phenomenon than has been recognized to date. For now, it’s worth noting the curious fact that most news outlets have not made much of an effort to dig into the Catholic results. In several ways, Catholic voters were trending back a bit towards Catholic values, but how, why – and in many cases, why not – will occupy us in our next.
That's the black vote and there is no difference from them than those 'in the world'. And people don't practice faith - they live it.
8 out of 10 white Protestants voted for Romney...95% of black Protestants voted for Obama...
6 out of 10 White Catholics voted for Romney...75% of Mexican Catholics voted for Obama...
“pro-life group equates anti-death penalty with anti-abortion”
If they are Catholic than this is a required church teaching - opposition to abortion and the death penalty. Not sure what your point is here.
These are interesting stats and belie the lie that it is Catholics in general contributing to Obama’s victory. In all the states that mattered (50 percent plus 1), Catholics by and large would have defeated Obama.
Obama’s coalition is secularists and non-Christians and you protestants need to be going after them.
Not this layperson!
I am thinking that maybe no state that went ‘pub lost the Catholic vote. Of course if this is all the states that were exit polled for religion, we might not ever know. But if these are correct numbers(he says they are still not complete) it does indeeed look like Obama won a heck of a lot of states despite getting less than 50% of the general Catholic vote in them, which is the opposite of what the whole ‘50% win among Catholics’ would lead one to think. And of course that is what the media went with. The article says it best:
“For now, it’s worth noting the curious fact that most news outlets have not made much of an effort to dig into the Catholic results. In several ways, Catholic voters were trending back a bit towards Catholic values, but how, why – and in many cases, why not – will occupy us in our next.”
But if Catholics in Va voted R by 10 points, I have a hard time imagining places like Alabama or Kentucky losing the Catholic vote to Obama.
I still can’t get over Romney winning the Catholic vote in NY. That is flat-out shocking, amazing.
Freegards
Like I said the blacks got his full support as did Notre Dame and Georgetown University. Face the facts don’t try to cover them.
Why? I'm sure atheists voted for Romney, also, as did Buddhists. Personally, I believe anyone who did vote for barry is anti-American and, also, clueless to that fact.
Because it is a huge very liberal state with a huge Catholic population that went for Obama by 60% last time. I thought that Obama would do worse with Catholics this time around, but I would have never thought he would lose NY Catholics, I thought there was just too much ground to be made up. I would have lost that bet.
“I’m sure atheists voted for Romney, also, as did Buddhists.”
You think that the nonreligious and Buddhists in NY state went for Romney? Everything I have seen would seem to say Obama would have won both fairly handily. Have you seen exit polling for them?
Freegards
No. I don’t watch polls because they are propaganda to make you ‘expect’ the results we just saw.
“The rest of protestantism is isolated individuals, megachurch/Olsteen, “prosperity gospel,” Benny Hinn, etc. is an inaccurate, biased broad brush.
Time reported (2006) only 17% of all Christians identified with the prosperity gospel (which is not simply believing God will bless giving), while Pew found that 90% of evangelical leaders reject the so-called prosperity gospel, the notion that God will grant wealth and good health to those who have enough faith. (http://www.pewforum.org/uploadedFiles/Topics/Religious_Affiliation/Christian/Evangelical_Protestant_Churches/Global%20Survey%20of%20Evan.%20Prot.%20Leaders.pdf)
In addition, 1200 Catholic churches are over 2000 in attendance, but being a megachurch (over 2000 in attendance) is not necessarily wrong, (Acts 2) and with large populations and transportation this is more likely, and often these hold services at multiple locations.
However, megachurches only make up one-half of 1 percent of all the religious congregations in the nation, while 26.3% of all churches are Evangelical Protestant, and 57% of megachurches were founded before 1961.
Of this 0.5% of megachurches, 56%-71 are Evangelical, with 16% being Southern Baptist, and 8 - 17% are Pentecostal. Finally, 25% belong to the “Charismatic Pastor-focused” group, superstar preachers which can be the more problematic.
In addition, the sections of the US with the highest percentage of megachurches mostly voted for Romney, the West coast excepting.
(http://hirr.hartsem.edu/megachurch/definition.html#catholic; http://www.christianpost.com/news/researchers-paint-latest-portrait-of-u-s-megachurches-27839/#7bEHYa8jCOKELo1X.99;
http://hirr.hartsem.edu/megachurch/faith_megachurches_FACTsummary.html#participants; http://hirr.hartsem.edu/megachurch/New-Decade-of-Megachurches-2011Profile.pdf)
As for being not being exactly known for their high minority membership, this is true, which is much in contrast to RC membership.
But evangelicals remain substantially more conservative than Catholics overall, (http://www.peacebyjesus.com/RC-Stats_vs._Evang.html) and while you can disown the cafeteria types which are the majority (and we can do the same), the fact is that Rome treats such as members in life and in death, and not just Ted Kennedy.
This has always been a misperception by Catholics and non-Catholics alike. Here is what the Catechism of the Catholic Church says about the death penalty:
“Assuming that the guilty party’s identity and responsibility have been fully determined, the traditional teaching of the Church does not exclude recourse to the death penalty, if this is the only possible way of effectively defending human lives against the unjust aggressor.” Catechism 2267
Most people who kill others had to make a conscience decision to take that life and therefore willingly commit mortal sin. That is why the Church will allow the death penalty under the circumstances mentioned above.
There were Freepers advocating voting third party based on what the media said strangers told other strangers over the phone. That I am not down with—basing ones vote on opinion polling.
Obama winning Catholics with 50% of the vote is pretty misleading in my opinion, if these exit polls are correct. I doubt anyone hearing that would think that Obama actually lost the Catholic vote in many of these states that went dem.
Freegards
I think you have it down pat.
I agree. When the media says...I stop listening. They are in the propaganda business.
Good post as usual!
I'm try to understand what they are calling the prosperity gospel. It seems more of a slur to those who believe what God says, not sure. Abraham, Issac, Jacob, Solomon didn't attain their wealth on their own - as we know it came from God. Joseph is another one and Naomi and Esther.
"But seek first His kingdom and His righteousness, and all these things will be given to you as well." And those mentioned above did that.
GOD FIRST ALL THE TIME. His system is not like the world's. He is Our Source for everything - spiritual, physical, emotional and financial.
Money is needed to spread the gospel and bless others in need which we are called to do. It can leave one suspect who opposes prosperity.
The difference is btwn a balance view which does not make poverty itself a virtue, or mean a lack of faith, nor supposes that gain is Godliness, but believes God to provide as we practice Mt. 6:33, and that faith will be tested, and that we can pray for wealth to be used for His glory, but to be content in either want or in plenty is a mark of maturity, and that sacrificial living is always a practice of the Christ-like.
Paradoxically, it is the typical so-called “faith teachers” that often display lack of faith by the time and energy they put into fund raising by selling the idea that gain is Godliness.
When said offender is effectively incarcerated for life, where is the risk to other human lives?
“which is the opposite of what the whole ‘50% win among Catholics’ would lead one to think. And of course that is what the media went with.”
And it is what many here want you to believe as well. The greatest threat to them is the idea that maybe, just maybe, the Catholic church has it right. I am glad to see that it is starting to funnel down that the Catholic church isn’t the enemy - we are going to need all the prolife Catholics. All of them.
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