Hurricane ISABEL downgraded to Cat 2

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/16/2003 | Nat. Hurricane Center

[norraad]

Hannity radio show just mentioned a freerepublic thread about hitlery & dem'rats blaming storm on Bush.

What thread is he talking about?

Fun to hear freerepublic mentioned(like a home town mention," hey, we are like a town, aren't we"_SNL Harry Carry ).

[Interesting Times]

Not sure what thread, but somebody posted a couple of paragraphs of satire yesterday on how the Dems might spin the hurricane, so to speak, to take a shot at Bush...

[Petronski]

Wtnt33 knhc 162033
tcpat3
bulletin
hurricane isabel advisory number 43
nws tpc/national hurricane center miami fl
5 pm edt tue sep 16 2003

...additional watches issued...warnings likely tonight...

At 5 pm edt...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued north
of chincoteague virginia to little egg inlet new jersey...including
delaware bay. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours.

At 5 pm edt...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for the
chesapeake bay from north beach maryland northward.

A hurricane watch remains in effect from little river inlet south
carolina to chincoteague virginia...including the pamlico and
albemarle sounds...chesapeake bay south of north beach
maryland...and the tidal potomac. A hurricane watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect south of little river inlet
to south santee river south carolina.

Hurricane warnings will likely be required tonight for a portion of
the watch area.

At 5 pm edt...2100z...the center of hurricane isabel was located
near latitude 27.8 north... Longitude 71.4 west or about 570 miles
south-southeast of cape hatteras north carolina.

Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher
gusts. Some increase in strength is possible prior to landfall.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the
center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 275 miles.

The minimum central pressure measured by an air force hurricane
hunter aircraft was 959 mb...28.32 inches.

Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are being
experienced along portions of the u.s. Southeast and mid-atlantic
coasts. These conditions will also continue over portions of the
the bahamas for the next few days.

Repeating the 5 pm edt position...27.8 n... 71.4 w. Movement
toward...north-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.

For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office...and statements from
local emergency management officials.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the national
hurricane center at 8 pm edt followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 pm edt.

Forecaster franklin

[Interesting Times]

New vortex data:

941
URNT12 KNHC 162213
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/2213Z
B. 28 DEG 02 MIN N
71 DEG 24 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2692 M
D. 65 KT
E. 316 DEG 115 NM
F. 056 DEG 103 KT
G. 317 DEG 052 NM
H. 956 MB
I. 10 C/ 3096 M
J. 15 C/ 3089 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF963 1713A ISABEL OB 24
MAX FL WIND 111 KT NE QUAD 2008Z. MAX FL TEMP 16C 093/9NM FROM
FL CENTER. SPIRAL BANDING EYE

-----

Pressure down another 2MB. Winds back up to a borderline Category 2/3. The closed eye wall isn't particularly good news, either.

[blam]

"Floyd was down to a Cat 2 when it hit land - with this kind of storm, rainfall and freshwater flooding become the greatest hazards.

Drownding is the main cause of death in hurricanes. Think water, water, water. (I looked up drownding, it is spelled correctly)

Btw, lightening kills more people in the US anually than any other weather related mishap.

[southernnorthcarolina]

B. 28 DEG 02 MIN N
71 DEG 24 MIN W

A bit difficult for be to decipher the "weatherese" ... but unless my eyes and/or math deceive me, it appears the heading is now DUE NORTH.

71º24'W = 71.4ºW, which was where it was in terms of longitude 3 hours ago. Meanwhile, it moved from 27.8ºN to 28º02'N (=28.03ºN) in the same time frame. Now, admittedly, 3 hours does not a trend make. But it is worthy of note that since 11 PM last night, she's moved more than 2.1º north, while moving only 0.9º west.

[Interesting Times]

As of 8pm, they're describing the motion as NNW.

[southernnorthcarolina]

As of 8pm, they're describing the motion as NNW.

Yep. The "official" 8PM report came out showing a position of 28.2°N and 71.5°W. So in the last 3 hours, it moved 0.4° to the north, and 0.1° to the west. With, again, the caveat that 3 hour differentials probably don't mean much, it certainly seems to be tracking ever closer to due north:

over the last 3 hours ...... 0.4° north, 0.1° west
over the last 9 hours ...... 0.8° north, 0.3° west
over the last 15 hours ... 1.6° north, 0.8° west
over the last 21 hours ... 2.3° north, 1.0° west.

Compare that with the prior 24 hour period, when it moved 1.8° north, and 2.2° west. Clearly a significant swing away from the coast, a trend which everyone except The Weather Channel should welcome.