Category 2 Hurricane Fabian headed west and Tropical Storm Grace forecast tonight in Gulf of Mexico

National Hurricane Center, Miami, Fl ^ | August 30, 2003 | National Hurricane Center

[varina davis]

Looks like Florida will be sandwiched between two tropical systems in the coming week.

[varina davis]

Here's the latest on the predicted Tropical Storm Grace in the GOM:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH THE DEPRESSION PRODUCING SOME SHEAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OR DRIFT SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN LIGHTER SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 310 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER AVILA

[blam]

I'm on the gulf coast in Mobile. Please ping me to the hurricane articles as they're updated, thanks.

[Dog Gone]

Fabian looks like it's heading for the Atlantic coastline, from Florida on north. There will be several days before it threatens land and we'll have a better idea of strike probability by next Thursday or so.

TD 11, soon to be TS Grace has formed quickly and will come ashore somewhere between Corpus Christi and Morgan City, LA. Fortunately, it is unlikely to develop hurricane status before then.

[deport]

[varina davis]

That's about right Dog Gone, though an Upper Level Low in the GOM may be providing some good outflow for the GOM system -- which could make it more threatening. Too soon to say and even NHC is uncertain of path at this point.

[bwteim]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml
or http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_astorm10+shtml/301503.shtml?

are links you need. I can't open your link, http://www.NHC.gov
-bw

[varina davis]

Thanks bwteim -- I realized that after I posted.

[SC Swamp Fox]

[BushCountry]

They have been so conservative (far off their estimates) on the strenght of Fabian I am wondering if TD-11 will reach cat-1 status?

[NautiNurse]

Hurricane season reaches its average peak this week.

Surf's up!

[bwteim]

Thanks for the pic.

[varina davis]

Here is a good website for information:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[John H K]

They have been so conservative (far off their estimates) on the strenght of Fabian I am wondering if TD-11 will reach cat-1 status?

The NHC intensity forecasts for Fabian haven't been particularly inaccurate.

[Dog Gone]

It's possible, I suppose. Right now the highest probability of landfall is between Port Arthur and Lake Charles, but I don't have very high confidence in the prediction.

It developed without warning overnight, and they haven't had much chance to study it.

The two high pressure systems over the US should sling the storm north pretty rapidly, though.

[blam]

It 'feels' pre-hurricane like here, with overcast skies, rain showers and ocassionaly some gusty winds.

[Rain-maker]

10L.FABIAN, TRACK_VIS,  30 AUG 2003 1715Z

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11L.NONAME, TRACK_VIS,  30 AUG 2003 1732Z

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Hawaiin Islands under hurricane watch too.

10E.JIMENA, TRACK_VIS,  30 AUG 2003 1745Z

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[BushCountry]

The NHC intensity forecasts for Fabian haven't been particularly inaccurate.

Only 30 or 40 mph off. Yesterday morning they predicted a 60 mph storm for the next three or four days.

[Dog Gone]

In the Houston area, tropical clouds are already spinning across from the east, a sure sign of a tropical storm of some sort.

[varina davis]

UPDATE:

BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GRACE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GRACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AIR FORCE RERSERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...ALONG WITH WIND REPORTS FROM A SHIP AND OFFSHORE OIL RIG...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GRACE AS OF 1 PM CDT...1800Z.

FORECASTER STEWART