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The fading accuracy of polling
Washington Times ^ | Wednesday, November 6, 2002 | Tony Blankley

Posted on 11/06/2002 12:31:27 AM PST by JohnHuang2

Edited on 07/12/2004 3:58:35 PM PDT by Jim Robinson. [history]

I am writing this column the afternoon before the election, but one thing I feel comfortable predicting: Several famous pollsters will be wrong.

For instance, in Minnesota either Zogby (Mondale by six) or Mason-Dixon (Coleman by six) will be left to explain how the dastardly public undercut them at the last moment. Likewise in Colorado, either Zogby (Strickland by five) or Gallup (Allard by two) will grumble about the public not truly understanding the full range of possibilities inherent within the phrase "a 95 percent chance of accuracy within a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percent." Properly understood, of course, that phrase means it could be a landslide either way.


(Excerpt) Read more at washtimes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: South Dakota
KEYWORDS: johnthune; kurtevans; libertarian; timjohnson
Wednesday, November 6, 2002

Quote of the Day by Blood of Tyrants

1 posted on 11/06/2002 12:31:27 AM PST by JohnHuang2
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To: JohnHuang2
Zogpiss has Special Sauce all over his face tonight.
2 posted on 11/06/2002 12:35:27 AM PST by The Great Satan
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To: JohnHuang2
Maybe the writer has been reading FR where we have been saying Republicans don't answer unavailable! LOL!!!

Agree with everything he says and I sincerely hope the Zogby is king people on here see what happened tonight! And also with Dick Morris!
3 posted on 11/06/2002 12:35:41 AM PST by PhiKapMom
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To: PhiKapMom
And also with Dick Morris!

I see where Dick Morris is blaming The Return Of Walter Mondale for hosing up his prediction of a great Democrat victory. He says Mondale reminded everybody of the Carter years, spreading malaise on everything. What a joke. I'll bet half the voters never even heard of Walter Mondale. I doubt he even made it into the history books... except maybe as one of the biggest losers ever. Well, Mondale can make it into the history books again; it looks like he lost.

4 posted on 11/06/2002 12:48:29 AM PST by Nick Danger
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To: PhiKapMom
Amen, my friend. Zogby is a bigger loser tonight
5 posted on 11/06/2002 12:53:08 AM PST by JohnHuang2
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To: JohnHuang2
Zogby (Mondale by six)...Zogby (Strickland by five)

Ouch. Bad night for Zogby and the DNC.

6 posted on 11/06/2002 1:15:05 AM PST by Roscoe
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To: Nick Danger
LOL!!!!!!!!!! Now it is Mondale's fault? That is laughable!
7 posted on 11/06/2002 1:17:34 AM PST by PhiKapMom
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To: JohnHuang2
Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people if you ask me -- the clinitons, daschle, mcauliffe, zogby. Pretty good night for our side!
8 posted on 11/06/2002 1:18:37 AM PST by PhiKapMom
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To: PhiKapMom
It's a GREAT night to be a Republican!
9 posted on 11/06/2002 1:19:31 AM PST by Howlin
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To: JohnHuang2
***  This problem has been building ever since cheap answering machines became available about 10 years ago. But with the mass use of cheap cellphones the problem is crossing over into a crisis for practitioners of the polling arts.****

This has been obvious to every polling company, and every news outlet that tried to keep it a secret. They used polls to shape campaigns. Now maybe with the fading of even organizations like VNS we will have more reporting of facts, and candidates words rather than the agencies favorite poll numbers.
10 posted on 11/06/2002 2:52:28 AM PST by maica
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To: JohnHuang2
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=648


Zogby's take on 2002

Released: November 07, 2002
Wow!
It’s been 36 hours after the results first began to trickle in, and that’s still my reaction to the plethora of surprises which defined the 2002 Midterm Elections.



As a fan of politics nothing could be more exciting than seeing the unexpected occur again and again.


But as a political pollster, whose reputation is impacted seemingly by every race polled and every percentage point reflected, Election Night was cause for much more grimacing than we at Zogby International have been used to over the last several years.


Our record for accuracy has been well-documented and well-earned.


§ In the 2000 Presidential elections, we were the only polling firm in the nation to have Al Gore ahead in the popular vote. He won by 1 percent.


§ Zogby International came the closest in predicting the outcome in the Super Tuesday 2000 election.


§ In 1996, Zogby International was the only pollster nationwide to accurately call the 1996 Presidential race – within 1 percent of the actual result.

As a result, it is no longer disputable that Zogby International has done consistently better in tighter races, than all of those who have just done well.


And for the 2002 Midterm Elections, we did have our usual on-target projections that most other polling firms missed – Florida, North Carolina, Arkansas, New Jersey and Missouri.


But on the other hand, we had some which for us were absolute stunners -


Colorado, Illinois, and Georgia.


It makes me wonder, what went wrong?


You’ve heard of the cliché: “This is not rocket science.” Guess what?! In an ever increasing magnitude, polling - or the science of opinion research - is becoming rocket science.


Fact is, this stuff ain’t easy!


In a world where hang-ups, cell phones and increasingly lower response rates add to the difficulty of accurately measuring just “what Americans really think,” the fact that all of us in the polling industry do as well as we do is really a tribute.


I’ve just received preliminary results of the first five states in our post-election surveys. The results are right on the money with the actual election results. This tells me that there is no problem with our sampling, our interviewing, or perhaps any of the other possible problems associated with pre-election polling. It just means that there are more and more variables, and that we in the polling industry must continue to adapt in making sure opinion research keeps up with an increasingly knowledgeable and increasingly changing public.


I think one of the voter variables we are going to have to take a closer look at is late voter decision. In 1998, there were 10 states we deemed too close to call. When post-election polling was conducted, we discovered that 8 percent of those who voted said they made up their mind on election day!


That is very significant and something along with several other variables we at Zogby International plan to reassess for all our upcoming political polling.


It’s my opinion that the New York Yankees are the best team in baseball. The record of achievement speaks for itself.


Yet, as we all know, the Yankees did not win the World Series this year.


And just like the Yankees, we at Zogby International strive to offer the most accurate opinion research available throughout the entire polling industry.


This year, we were just …okay.


Which for us, is not good enough.



(sorry the following numbers are ugly...maybe someone else can clean it up for me)



Arkansas - MSNBC/Arkansas Gazette/Zogby Poll - Governor



Sept. 21
Oct. 12
Nov. 2
Final Results
Actual Results

Mike Huckabee (Republican)
49
50
51
54
53

Jimmie Lou Fisher (Democrat)
37
40
40
44
47


Arkansas - MSNBC/Arkansas Gazette/Zogby Poll - Senate



Sept. 21
Oct. 12
Nov. 2
Final Results
Actual Results

Tim Hutchinson (Republican)
43
45
44
43
46

Mark Pryor (Democrat)
45
45
55
56
54


Colorado – MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate



Sept. 21
Oct. 12
Nov. 2
Final Results
Actual Results

Wayne Allard (Republican)
42
40
44
46
51

Tom Strickland (Democrat)
42
41
53
51
45

Rick Stanley (Libertarian)
-
5
3
2
1


Georgia – MSNBC/Zogby Poll – Senate



Nov. 2
Final Results
Actual Results

Max Cleland (Democrat)
49
50
46

Saxby Chambliss(Republican)
49
48
53

Sandy Thomas (Libertarian)
2
1
1


Minnesota – MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Governor



Sept. 21
Oct. 12
Nov. 2
Final Results
Actual Results

Tim Pawlenty (Republican)
28
30
35
39
45

Roger Moe (Democrat)
23
25
34
38
36

Tim Penny (Independence)
28
27
18
18
16

Ken Pentel (Green)
2
3
3
5
2


Minnesota – MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate



Sept. 21
Oct. 12
Nov. 2
Final Results
Actual Results

W. Mondale (Democrat)
(Wellstone) 41
(Wellstone) 46
50
51
48

N. Coleman (Republican)
47
37
45
45
50

J. Moore (Independence)
2
6
3
2
2

R. Tricomo (Green)
1
1
-
2
-


Missouri – MSNBC/St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Zogby Poll – Senate



Sept. 21
Oct. 12
Nov. 2
Final Results
Actual Results

Jean Carnahan (Democrat)
48
41
49
45
49

Jim Talent (Republican)
40
47
48
53
50

Daniel “Digger” Romano (Green)
0
0
1
1
1

Tamara Millay (Libertarian)
1
1
1
1
-


New Jersey – MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate



Sept. 21
Oct. 12
Nov. 2
Final Results
Actual Results

Frank Lautenberg (Democrat)
39
48
54
55
54

Douglas Forrester (Republican)
34
36
38
42
44

John “Ted” Glick (Green)
3
1
5
2
1

Liz Macron (Libertarian)
2
1
1
1
1

*Torricelli withdrew from the campaign.
North Carolina – MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate



Sept. 21
Nov. 2
Final Results
Actual Results

Elizabeth Dole (Republican)
55
52
53
54

Erskine Bowles (Democrat)
32
46
43
45

Sean Haugh (Libertarian)
1
3
4
1

Not sure
11
-
-



South Dakota – MSNBC/Zogby Poll - Senate



Sept. 21
Oct. 12
Nov. 2
Final Results
Actual Results

Tim Johnson (Democrat)
46
43
52
47
50

John Thune (Republican)
43
45
47
52
49

Kurt Evans (Libertarian)
2
3
1
1
1

Not Sure
10
10
-




Texas – MSNBC/Zogby Poll – Governor



Sept. 21
Oct. 12
Nov. 2
Final Results
Actual Results

Rick Perry (Republican)
44
52
50
58
58

Tony Sanchez (Democrat)
32
30
36
38
40

Rahul Mahajan (Green)
1
1
1
1
1

Jeff Daiell (Libertarian)
4
2
1
2
1


Texas – MSNBC/Zogby Poll – Senate



Sept. 21
Oct. 12
Nov. 2
Final Results
Actual Results

John Cornyn (Republican)
42
45
49
50
55

Ron Kirk (Democrat)
30
37
48
46
43

Roy Williams (Green)
1
3
1
1
1

Scott Jameson (Libertarian)
3
2
2
2
1

Wright
1
5
1
1
-





11 posted on 11/07/2002 12:51:15 PM PST by finnman69
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