Lazio [will run] for Congress [again]

PoliticsNY.com ^ | 3-18-02 | Enos Throop (PoliticsNY.com staff)

[Torie]

The 2nd has what Luther represented of Dakota county, which he lost be 3000 votes, and Carver and Scott counties which Kennedy represented, and which Bush won by 15,000 votes. It also has Goodhue, Rice and LeSueur Counties from the 1st district (which neither represented, and have about 57,000 Bush Gore votes, in which Bush and Gore are tied). I like this map better and better.

[crasher]

My memory is that Bush won Kennedy's district by about 15 points. Any chance that Gore won the new 2nd? How much of the new 6th does Luther already represent? What do you think the odds of a pickup are here now?

[Torie]

Oh, and the 2nd has the sliver of Washinton County which Luther may have carried by about 1,000-1,200 votes.

[Torie]

Gore lost the new second district by 18,000 votes. Luther has most of Washington County which he previously represented, but the somewhat more GOP part, so he had a zero margin there, plus Anoka, which he carried by 6,000 votes. But the southern sliver of Anoka (Spring Lake Park, Columbia Heights, Fridley and Hilltop) is no longer in his district (it is in the St. Paul district), and I suspect when I am done counting his margin in the sliver, for the part of Anoka he still has in his district he broke even too. Luther is in trouble.

[crasher]

As usual, the local media doesn't know what it's talking about. Now they claim that the map puts Mark Kennedy in Luther's 6th district. And Kennedy is undecided about whether to run there or the 2nd.

http://www.startribune.com/stories/587/2110620.html

[pro-life]

i would prefer lazio to be elected (than the Rat candidate), however he will not vote with bush like you seem to think he would. his voting record shows this.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

History is against winning House seats.

That is because 'history' is in favor of a new President from the opposition party bringing in a large number of Congressmen from his party in on his coattails. Many of these new congressman can't hold onto their seats. Bush had no coattails, so no congressman were elected on his coattails, so the 'history' is of significance only to the superstitious.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

Bush will not be campaigning for Lazio.

In the primary it is not necessary, the nomination is being handed to Lazio. In the general election, I am sure Bush will campaign for all GOP congressional candidates that want him to do so.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Actually, there are other reasons, too-- it's not just superstition. I do believe there is evidence this could be more like Roosevelt's first midterm election.

[Tuco-bad]

In the general election, I am sure Bush will campaign for all GOP congressional candidates that want him to do so.

So when Bush doesn't campaign for Lazio, you will state that Lazio didn't want Bush to campaign for him.

Sure!

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

So when Bush doesn't campaign for Lazio, you will state that Lazio didn't want Bush to campaign for him.

Get back to me after election day on this subject, is that fair? One of us is right, and we will know better then. Of course, anytime Bush campaigns for Lazio, that will prove me right. You will be proved right if the election comes and goes without Bush campaigning for Lazio.

[Tuco-bad]

Get back to me after election day on this subject, is that fair? One of us is right, and we will know better then. Of course, anytime Bush campaigns for Lazio, that will prove me right. You will be proved right if the election comes and goes without Bush campaigning for Lazio.

Sounds good to me - if Bush campaigns as little as one time for Lazio, you are of course right.

[Coleus]

The wimp and RINO, Lazio, should stay out of politics.

[1Old Pro]

Latest: Lazio will NOT run for Congress

[VA Advogado]

You will be proved right if the election comes and goes without Bush campaigning for Lazio.

Tuco-right, Corny-wrong.

[Lucius Cornelius Sulla]

You will be proved right if the election comes and goes without Bush campaigning for Lazio. -- 'Tuco-right, Corny-wrong.'

Not to be too technical on this, but I was not changing the original prediction, only refining it on the assumption that Lazio was running. The original prediction was that 'Bush will not be campaigning for Lazio' in the context that Lazio would be running. There were no predictions as to whether he was running, it was assumed by all. We are (apparently) all wrong about this. As far as I can see, this is rather like a horse race. If the race is called off, all bets are also off.

As far as Lazio is concerned, I think he better take down that 'support me for something' website he has up. He had halfway earned a "he's a wussie" reputation, now he has fully earned it. Of course, if they give him something more, and he ends up running, I'd still want him to be elected, wussie or not.