Russia Sidesteps Western Punishments, With Help From Friends

NYT's ^ | January 31, 2023 | Ana Swanson

[BobL]

“The Republican neocons had such great hopes for an Ukraine-Russia conflict that the snakes participated in the coup against President Trump to get Biden into office. What a bunch of treacherous losers.”

I’m hearing that the Neocons were working on sanctions for this war in Dec. 2021, 2 months before it began. So, to put it another way, the Neocons knew this war was coming, and THEY WANTED THIS WAR.

And the reason they wanted the war was because they were CONVINCED that their sanctions would destroy the Russian economy (leading to ‘regime change’), which other than the claims of one Blogger, has NOT happened, not even close. Probably has something to do with 85% of the world not participating in the ‘sanctions’, starting with China and India, but that’s just my guess, LOL.

...so now they’re forced to fight Russia, which was something that they OBVIOUSLY did not plan on and they’re now finding out that all the threats in the world to the CEO of Raytheon (who these same people used to despise, and likely still do) CANNOT cause production there to double overnight - it’s a bit more complicated than that. They’re also finding out that, THANKS TO THEIR POLICIES, the Drag Queen infested NATO militaries are HOLLOWED OUT shells of what they were during the Cold War, and only able to dominate selected Third World countries.

[BobL]

“You realize a lot of Russia’s oil and gas exports are off the books, right?”

The REAL TEST is seeing what Russian consumers are paying for food and energy, as it’s impossible to hide an economic collapse from such large segments of the economy.

...and as far as I keep hearing, they’re paying roughly what they did before the war. If they weren’t, I suspect more than a handful of Western media outlets would run stories on their plight.

[dforest]

Perhaps some countries failed to self assess their power, influence and popularity.

Hubris, we see it on a tiny scale with some here.

[ozarker]

Someone on here made the comment a few days ago that in this coming war it was “Russia against the entire world”. We tend to forget that we are not the majority of the world. It would be more like “merica” against, Let’s see; a billion or so indians, a billion or so chinese, turkey, most of the arab world, most of latin america, and of course quite a few countries in europe itself, hungary, serbia to name a couple.

[Red6]

The problem with trying to damage the Russian economy and sanctions on oil, gas, coal and petro products, is that they have what everyone wants, in fact needs.

For us this is long term good, we’ve wanted Europe to wean itself off Russian petro products and be aligned with us. We are a major energy producer...

But in the bigger picture, as the Euro’s move away from Russian fossil fuels, all you’ve seen is others like India, China... pick up the excess.

Again, you’re talking predictions, and so far almost everything our MSM and experts have predicted has turned out how? Like the Ruble predictions.

I am not an oil and gas expert, but IMHO some of this follows a time based cycle, so much of the talk of the Russians selling and producing less is sort of bogus because it corresponds to the cycle (time of year): https://intellinews.com/russia-s-gas-production-in-january-at-a-five-year-high-234201/

An article I found interesting: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/04/which-petroleum-products-does-russia-supply-to-world/

I would lay little stock in all these Russian doomsday predictions because they are speculative and allow for the writers bias and imagination to go wild. What is factual is that since war’s begin and with the sanctions, the Russians have managed to sell their gas, oil and petro products.

There is a difference between cell phones and energy. One is nice to have, the other a necessity. The Russians are sitting on things that are economic necessities: fossil fuels, fertilizers, wheat... without which the wheels stop turning and people go hungry. Can you blame Mexico or Brazil? Mexico for example imports 83,000 metric tons of wheat annually, but the bulk of their fertilizer from Russia, not counting other food products: https://aztecreports.com/ukraine-russian-war-poses-risks-and-challenges-for-mexican-food-supply/2951/ What do you think it means for a government if you have “food shortages” in a country? Even here in the US we are feeling some of the consequences of this war and our sanctions, but we are far more independent than Mexico, India... If some of these countries actually followed our lead, they would have folks with pitchforks and torches in the capital eventually, not because they are adamantly pro-Russian, but because when people are hungry, they’ll even resort to cannibalism at some point.

Our sanctions surely are having some impact. But by far not as great as our MSM, which is still celebrating the totally fair and real election of Joe Biden, claim it is.

I just came back from Mexico where I spent two months. I can tell you, there are Russian products for sale there, in plain sight. They are not sanctioning: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_sanctions_during_the_2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine#/media/File:Sanctions_against_Russia_and_Belarus_2022.svg The white area, like India, Brazil, Mexico... they are all refusing to sanction. Some of the purples like Turkey and PRC, are flat our lies. They are fully taking advantage of the situation and are indeed working around the sanctions. In some cases as with PRC while we talk sanctions they are making new multiyear gas deals with the Russians... Even some of the blue areas which we pretend are all united and standing against Russia are complete bullshit: https://www.politico.eu/article/hungary-signs-deal-with-gazprom-over-additional-gas/ or https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/short_news/hungary-to-buy-more-gas-from-russian-in-new-deal/ Even within our NATO partners, within the EU you will find folks that are working around these “airtight” sanctions which are alegedly crushing the Russian economy.

If you take away the political theatrics like this: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/transcoded/0/0b/%2490M_Yacht_of_Sanctioned_Russian_Oligarch_Viktor_Vekselberg_Seized_by_Spain_at_Request_of_U.S.webm/%2490M_Yacht_of_Sanctioned_Russian_Oligarch_Viktor_Vekselberg_Seized_by_Spain_at_Request_of_U.S.webm.480p.vp9.webm

What you are really seeing, actual tangible results, is the Ruble is steady, inflation is around 20%, their GDP took a slight hit of about 2.3% (so did ours BTW, and Ukraine tanked at 14% and that is with EU and US aid), Russian gas and oil production is not declining and nor are their exports... but who knows, maybe our experts get it right with these next predictions. How does the saying go, even a broken clock is right twice a day?

[Red6]

Hahaha

I had to save that image.

[rottweiller_inc]

Well the US has screwed over 7/8 to the world so why would they Be motivated to help the US keep sanctions on a country that may very well retaliate in the future

[rottweiller_inc]

Well fresh also has a lot of uranium maybe they should start selling To America’s enemies to make up for that sword it’s they also have a lot of gold copper aluminum zinc

[Red6]

Wow-

Nice article.

We have the motive. We were at the right time and place. We have the capabilities. We have a history, are very willing to use military force to achieve our political ends.

Now you have witnesses (basically what that is) coming forward.

Proud of their criminal act, you have the culprit in this case subtly flagging with nuance comments that it was them. They are proud of what they did after all.

Finally, you have some intercepts that while not definitive and from an opposing interest point in that direction, “it’s done.” (Take it with a grain of salt).

***If this were a courtroom and we were on trial, a reasonable jury would give us the guilty verdict.***

What I find absolutely astonishing is the Germans. They are not budging and standing with us, even though we basically did a secret ether job on them and they surely must know about now why their ass is itching.

The Germans are part of NATO, they have a robust intel service (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Intelligence_Service) and they are able to add 1+1. I am sure they know... yet not a word. Total silence from their state run media, political leadership, military and intel service. I wonder what the true motivation and causes are from them taking this course of action?

Do they secretly support it, i.e. wanted an off ramp from Nordstream but could not have done it by themselves i.e. political infighting? Are they motivated by the greater cause, i.e. a perceived re-emergence of a Russian threat and the desire to have Ukraine under them (let’s face it, they are the powerhouse in the EU)? Do we have a deal with them, specifically has there been an agreement to where we provide something in return but that can’t be public because it would be an admission of guilt? What is for sure, is that there is no free lunch, so there is a reason for their silence.

[hcmama]

There were warnings from the get-go that Putin had been "sanction-proofing" his economy for some time before he invaded Ukraine.

Regardless, the sections have been an utter failure. I think the British economy contracted more than the Russia's last year

[fireman15]

Russia's energy production and revenues are going to take a huge hit this year.

Time will tell. Your Pollyanna point of view is cute but unrealistic. Unfortunately, beliefs such as yours based on wishful thinking typically do not come true. Russia was swamped with money from their exports last year compared to 2021 largely because of the “sanctions”. Even countries who were supposedly participating in the sanctions continued buying Russian exports.

The Biden administration blowing up the Nord Stream pipelines was not to keep the Russians from selling gas. It was to keep the Germans from buying it. Even with the pipeline debacle the Russian's biggest European customers and supposed sanction partners barely cut their purchases. The Netherlands only cut their Russian imports of energy products by 5% in 2022 and the Germans cut theirs by 8%. Countries representing approximately 90% of the world's population didn't cut their Russian exports at all and in many cases such as China and India... dramatically increased them. Do I need to remind you that India and China share borders with Russia; their trade is not dependent on ocean going freight?

https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/one-year-of-ukraine-war-how-western-sanctions-havent-worked-against-russia-12195942.html

You keep wishing and hoping that the Biden administration is capable of prosecuting a successful foreign policy and "winning" this situation. All they are really accomplishing is enriching the Russian oligarchy, killing tens of thousands of Russian and Ukrainian citizens, wasting hundreds of billions of tax dollars and giving the "Big Guy" his 10% or more to fund the continued corruption of our election process... But yay, yay way to go our side! Right?

[fireman15]

A short term spike in exports can not compensate for a long term production cut.

Again, neither you nor I can know whether Russia is planning a long term production cut. It seems doubtful. What you are calling “long term” seems to be based on numbers from this winter, yet you deny the importance of a large increase noted in the latest numbers... Can't you see that there is an incongruity in your thought process. Here is a longer term chart... from the same source that you cite.

[dforest]

In a way we have been isolated from much of the world. The US and Europe are not the whole world and not everyone in the whole world thinks we are as wonderful as we think we are.

Your post was a very realistic and honest view.

[Red6]

We once were the good guys.

There was a time where our cry for freedom, democracy, human rights and sovereignty actually were sincere and meant something. Today these are just silly punchlines used by politicians, but no one believes the crap anymore.

We were defensive and not using military force in furtherance of pure economic interests. We in fact initiated some of the bilateral treaties to reduce nuclear weapons, stop the spread of them...

Reagan said it best: “Peace through strength.” He said a lot of great things actually.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peace_through_strength

Trump was far less eloquent than Reagan (his jokes, comments... were not as dignified) but he’s basically the same in policy.

This war would have never happened had Trump been in office, and eventually even all those that think they are on Ukraine’s side will come to realize that this would have been the better course of action. Arm Ukraine to make Russian aggression costly, but do not push it to a war by offering Ukraine NATO membership.

This right here was us pushing the war button: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukrainian-president-zelenskiy-holding-talks-with-biden-adviser-says-2021-12-09/

Do not let yourself be confused or distracted, the cause of this war rests firmly on the shoulders of the Biden Administration. In the meantime, in furtherance of this cause, we have done things which will have lasting consequences both for our security and economically. We damage relations with allies, institutions like NATO, we did things which are outright criminal/terrorist by our own standards and definitions (like blow up a pipeline). We have caused the destruction of a nation, Ukraine.

We weren’t some weakling pushover in the past, but we also were no bully and willing to use bombs and missiles so that some corporation or financial institution can make more money. We didn’t gamble with the lives of 41,000,000 people.

The Main Stream Media will not hold this administration accountable. After all, they represent the interests of big corporate America and the political elite. The media is strongly liberal, globalist, and ~ 4/5ths aligned with the Democrats which Biden is. Biden can ramble incoherently, forget the names of his own cabinet members, poop himself, cut one in front of a royal and not know how to get off a stage... and our MSM will write about Putin having metal issues.

Inflation statistics which are bogus, a looming recession, the consequences of our border policies... none of that will be highlighted by MSNBC, CNN, CBS, the NYT’s, LA Times... They will keep carrying the water for Biden on this war because he’s their “big guy.”

So expect to continue hearing about how we’re winning on all fronts until one morning we wake up to hear how it was all different after all and now a peace deal is made where Ukraine loses a big piece of its land, will not be part of NATO or the EU... Eventually once the dust settles expect to hear horror stories of Ukrainian casualties, forced recruiting, substantial losses of American lives and other Europeans fighting in the Ukrainian foreign legion (mercenaries we euphemistically call “volunteers” - what did we call such volunteers fighting against us in Iraq? Insurgents, terrorists...). All things known but which our “watchdog media” isn’t reporting or our freedom loving government is censoring. In this case, because the EU and their economic interests supported this cause, you literally have no counter weight. Everyone is lockstep not because it’s such an apparently just war, but because all interests are served: EU, US, political, economic.

As time goes on, we are drifting further and further away from a noble legacy.

All of this reminds me of a great scene in a movie:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLmuF-0P4tk

[rottweiller_inc]

Yeah it’s starting to look like a race between wether we’re defeated from the outside by a group of nations that we’ve made into our enemies who band together into a coalition or collapsing from within.

[Basket_of_Deplorables]

The US screwed the pooch on this, and inflation is here to stay. For years.

We’re Broke, military depleted, and infrastructure failing left and right.

And Russia is just fine.

Thanks, Neocons! Thanks Nuland!

[Paul R.]

How? Because I know the Chinese. Not in a Old Testament sense — Lots of practical direct business experience and other observation.

Then cross check with Russia’s own figures for revenue.

[blitz128]

That may be true but i guarantee whoever is taking the oil and reselling it is doing it at a very discounted rate, what choice does Russia have? Regardless their own numbers show significant loss in revenue and skyrocketing expenses

[Paul R.]

That’s correct, but, you’d better check Russia’s own figures for early 2023.

Please do try to keep up.

[Paul R.]

Also very significant is the pattern of Russia’s VAT tax revenues most recently. That’s probably a better indicator of overall economic health. GDP is “tricky” as it gets badly distorted by wartime spending (will apply to us too, of course, once weapons production is ramped up.)