Author is Griffin’s Husband
Posted on 02/18/2022 7:19:44 PM PST by E. Pluribus Unum
Sorry another correction:
When I say Muslims enjoy more rights than Evangelical Christians and Catholics — I meant in Russia at large, not Chechnya.
Chechnya obviously the majority is Muslim and its President is very tight with Putin and does his bidding to keep the region under control and in line with the Kremlin.
No he won’t.
Anyone that doesn’t know the the difference between a magazine and a clip and still professes that the FBI is 99% good, will never learn
Oh I don’t think Russia is a boogeyman, they are certainly more than willing to invade a country to their own ends...
However, I just don’t see the ends here.... Russia doesn’t want Ukraine in NATO, fair enough... but does it really need to invade to keep that from happening?
Saber rattling or serious threat? Or, trumped up distraction??
The same folks saying invasion is imminent are the ones that claimed Trump was going to cause nuclear ware with NK.... and they wonder why no one trusts them....
I watched a wonderful video on one of those subs. Very small compared to their big boomers!
What neocon Jennifer Griffin says or doesn’t say is irrelevant to the reality of the situation.
I’ve just been looking at Russian news and social media sites and the evacuation from LPR and DPR is what people in Russia are talking about right now.
The LPR and DPR separatists are claiming that Ukraine has chosen this moment in history (when 190,000 Russian troops are stationed in attack mode on three of four sides of Ukraine) to shell LPR/DPR in preparation for an invasion by Ukraine to retake LPR/DPR.
They claim the Ukrainian military lobbed shells three times into the separatist areas during the night and based on that the separatist leaders have ordered the evacuation of 700,000 civilians into the neighboring Rostov region of Russia.
On social media you can see photos of people loading up into buses to evacuate into Russia.
Putin has promised a cash payment to each evacuee from LPR/DPR who shows up in Rostov.
It is reported that something like 25,000 people have already crossed into Rostov in cars.
Will 700,000 people really evacuate from LPR/DPR in the next day or two? Who knows.
It turns out from metadata that the evacuation order videos posted on the Telegram social media outlet (a very popular outlet in Russia) were made two days earlier, before the supposed shelling that prompted the evacuation.
Also, there was a vote in the Duma today on whether LPR and DPR should be recognized which the Communist Party has pushed for a long time. It was not expected to pass but Putin put out the word is was okay for United Russia to vote for it, and so it unexpectedly passed. That doesn’t mean Putin will sign it.
So Putin is rolling ahead with something. I thought before that the pipeline explosion might be something the separatists did on their own, but now I think Putin must have ordered it.
All of this: the claim of Ukrainian shelling, the fake claim that Ukraine has chosen this particular moment to invade and take back LPR/DPR, the pre-recorded evacuation order for the civilian population, the money payments to them, the pipeline explosions, the movement of civilians into Rostov must have been scripted out in the Kremlin, there is no other way this would be happening.
My sense is that Putin will not simply carpet bomb Ukraine and then roll in the tanks and troop carriers across the country.
I think more likely is that he will try to decapitate the Ukrainian leadership in Kiev using intelligence agents, local Ukrainians loyal to Russia and special forces, and then have the new government officially ask for “help” to protect it and then Putin will roll in.
Your analysis seems closer to truth than most of the rest of what Ive read on this thread ( not sure about the last paragraph)
Here are a couple of news sources that seem to have good info
https://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/russian-war-engine-failure-whats-going-on-in-ukraine.html
This is another good article
https://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-likely-scenarios-for-a-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-2022-2
Denial is a sweet aphrodisiac......
Thanks.
The attitude in the Kiev Post piece is admirable, but without highly advanced anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems the Ukrainians just can’t withstand an all-out Russian air and missile attack.
And Russia no doubt is confident that its bases across the border in Russia from which they would launch attacks are free from risk of counter-attack because they hold the nuke card.
My guess is that Putin is assessing Russian public opinion as to whether it would support installing a puppet regime in Kiev and how many Russian casualties might be sustained.
I don’t think the Russian public is eager to take Donbass into Russia like they did Crimea, but maybe that is what has been decided. The separatists claim jurisdiction over the entire Donetsk and Luhansk provinces, but only occupy about a third of that. Would Putin seize the whole thing, or just the third?
He can’t keep young soldiers in the field forever especially in the middle of winter and with a covid pandemic.
It seems like Putin has decided to set some set of events in motion, I guess the world will find out soon what he has decided.
“Who gains from a war with Russia?
……………………………………………………………
Russia. They’re going to WIN the war and will begin directly threaten Poland. They’ve already been verbally threatening Poland for years and recently called them “human rights violators” for the BS Muslim refugee thing that they tried to pull on Poland….”
******************************************************************
Oh, my gosh… the DOMINO THEORY! Are you really going there? Are you actually resurrecting that? Desperation abounds!
Excellent post. If he does this he’s risking a lot in terms of support from the Russian people- and the image he’s cultivated that he’s not a really bad guy. I’m hard-pressed to understand what the payoff is for him.
The amount of stupidity I’ve been reading on this forum is actually quite insane. It’s not the “Domino” theory. Russia has already stated that they want a full withdrawal from all NATO countries that joined after 1997. They have already threatened Poland. They’ve been threatening Poland for a number of years now. Are they going to stop threatening Poland once they share a border with it?
She was in a rage at those “stupid MAGA Trump Lovers”. Came off as a preachy, angry beotch with Trump Derangement Syndrome
Yes, we all know that only you ‘Greetings_Puny_Humans to House Atreides’ can possibly understand what Russians and Putin is thinking or saying and what it means. S/
How can we believe a word out of our governments mouth, Ms. Griffin?
Certainly we wouldn't rely on you, one of the worst liars and propagandists on this forum for Putin!
I was wondering How the Duma was going to go ...so it did pass then. Interesting, I didn’t think it would pass either. Putin likely won’t sign unless theres concrete agreements with Nato on Ukraine not being included..... He’ll keep the conflicts going because as long as those are happening Ukraine will never qualify for Nato membership.
Of course I expected a rough, unmannerly, and uncultured response from your usual misplaced anger at any who disagree with your perceptions regarding Russia and Ukraine.... Your reputation precedes you.
I like how after almost every thread where you say something offensive/stupid/unmannerly, you immediately start crying when I call you what you are!
You behave like such a Communist maybe it's time to just move to Russia or China?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.