Posted on 10/27/2020 10:00:21 AM PDT by ScottfromNJ
Are they still over sampling Dem voters?
If so, the Dems are in deep trouble, and know it.
NO, Trafalgar is the only pollster who supposedly already builds in the “shy Trump voter” effect, so the 2 points is just that—2 points. I’ll take it!
PA will cheat in Philly so this is not a big enough lead.
it’s that close? how stupid can they be????????????
Thank you. I feel the same way.
The same poll conducted from 10/10-10/12/20 was Biden 47.4
Trump 45.1
The trend is good.
I thought Trafalgar recently had trump up by more in Pennsylvania. That’s why I am concerned.
The same poll conducted from 10/10-10/12/20 was Biden 47.4
Trump 45.1
The trend is good.
________________________________________
You will see the same trend in any legitimate poll this week.
I tried to explain it to my wife in this way: imagine any profession, if a presidential candidate flatly stated he or she would eliminate your job on purpose, wouldn’t that make anyone rethink their voting preference?
That is the big question. Robert Cahaley, head of Trafalger, said several days ago that he believed that Trump would win in Pennsylvania, but that he would lose it to voter fraud. He did not mention what a lead would be required to overcome the anticipated voter fraud. The issue that was before the Supreme Court and decided by a 4-4 vote thanks to the Chief Justice is headed back to the Supreme Court. The revote will probably determine the outcome in PA.
When you look at it probabilistically, a 0.8% difference with a 2.91% margin of error translates into a 62.8% probability of the leader actually winning.
-PJ
A good bit the shift can be attributed to switching polling methodology. The usually shift from polling “Registered Voters” to “Likely Voters” in the closing 2 weeks of the campaign. Then you have to factor the “Shy Trump Voter” factor which is really anybody’s guess. I have yet to see anybody explain how to ‘get at’ that number from 2016 much less predict it for 2020.
My sense is that Pennsylvania will go for Trump but, if it’s still close (<3%) the election fraud machinery kicks in and it will be up to the USSC to stop the unlawful vote counting.
Tight. We need a bigger margin to make sure the corrupt Philly machine can’t steal the election.
For all that Trump has done for PA, it should not require that much effort for the state to vote for him. I guess PA does not place too much value on their Oil and Gas Industry.
Still a lot of Unionistas in Pa who do what the union bosses say !
The age 18-24 voters are breaking for Trump in PA, per this poll, and by a healthy amount, eight percent of so.
Combine that with the fact that less college age kids are being rounded up by Dems because of the lockdowns and some of the counties with big colleges in them could generate a lot less of an edge for Dems than is normal.
It especially helps that most of the toughest lockdowns are being imposed by Democrat governors and mayors. The kids will notice that. And if they’re mad, they’ll be GOP votes that are motivated. If they’re not mad, they’re Dem votes that are likely to be less motivated.
Nope I think last PA poll they did had Biden up 2 or 3
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