Posted on 10/08/2020 7:12:33 PM PDT by conservativepoet
Another night of riotin... OOPS! .. “peaceful protest” 2 nights ago in a WI. Residential windows were smashed. Children scared by rocks coming through their bedroom windows while they slept. The people in Kenosha are also SICK of BLM/Dimocrat nonsense. I don’t see how WI DOESN’T go HARD for Trump!
WHAT “Dimocrat surge?!” SlowChinaJoe is underperforming Killery.
It probably has to do with the large amount undecideds. It seems many lesser pollsters link the undecided voters in with the MOE calculations. That practice seems to be done by splitting the undecideds 50 50 and then report that as the margin of error. If the undecideds are 10 percent then a MOE at 4.9 percent is an assignment of close to 50 percent of the possible vote counts to both candidates as being future reflective of the vote counts of the Undecideds.
The way polls can screw up is if they don’t get the weighting right between the parties and the independents. Dems like to talk and independents love to tout that they are INDEPEDENT(!!) and “beholden to no
party”(!!). Conservatives may be sparing in their opinions or report themselves as undecided or having no opinion.
I have observed this MOE phenomena with other polls when you compare the MOE with the undecideds even when 3rd parties are involved. They apply their secret sauce weightings to the undecideds and make numerical assumptions on the putative final counts between the three groups then divide the number in half to get the margin of error.(After all the undecideds would have 3 candidates they could chose from not just 2 but the main parties will likely break for their own candidates while the independents may break in 3 directions...that is considering the percentages that call themselves undecided)
I’m not sure if that is the way a true margin of error is supposed to be calculated but when I do my own math, my own figures usually come close to the margin of error touted!
Trump ticked up today to +0.8, still better than 2016
Biden +4.5
Hillary +5.3
I heard someone say this morning on Newsmax that Trump has pulled all adds in Michigan. Not been able to verify it.
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