Location...About 35 MI SSE of Naples FL
Max Sustained Winds...40 MPH
Moving...W at 7 MPH
Minimum Pressure...1004 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
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I haven't been paying attention.
Thanks for your work.
My Houston sister just flew to Tampa to spend the W/E with my sister there.
In before the whiners about storm hype.
Thanks for ping NN. Looks like it will be a TD when passes here.
Location...About 45 MI SSW of Naples FL
Max Sustained Winds...40 MPH
Moving...W at 7 MPH
Minimum Pressure...1004 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
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Seems like this one came up all of a sudden.
Tampa area here: we had a huge downpour earlier this afternoon - had no idea it had a name. It was definitely intense, but as a Floridian for 11 years now it was just weather.
Sally’s update shows it’s track has shifted further east now - we’re dead center in the updated median. The AVNO 12/1200Z track has the center sitting literally on top of our roof Wednesday, but the 12/1800Z model has it doing a Crazy Ivan in the Montgomery/Birmingham area. Which puts us on the surly side of the circulation.
Sally - GO AWAY.
We’ve had enough from Laura already...
Location...About 115 MI W of Port Charlotte FL
...About 345 MI ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
Max Sustained Winds...50 MPH
Moving...WNW at 13 MPH
Minimum Pressure...1001 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metro New Orleans
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the MS/AL Border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
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Location...About 135 MI W of St. Petersburg FL
...About 280 MI ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
Max Sustained Winds...60 MPH
Moving...WNW at 12 MPH
Minimum Pressure...998 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
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Location...About 165 MI S of Panama City FL
...About 215 MI ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
Max Sustained Winds...60 MPH
Moving...WNW at 9 MPH
Minimum Pressure...996 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
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expect an east shift on the track next update
18z models and 00z early model suites shows an east jog
a landfall on the MS coast
Mobile metro (pop 630K)
would get the nasty right side of the inner core
CAT 2 likely... unless vertical stacking in complete by morning could be stronger
still has 48 hours water with that slower east track
Location...About 140 MI SSW of Panama City FL
...About 185 MI ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
Max Sustained Winds...60 MPH
Moving...NW at 8 MPH
Minimum Pressure...996 MB
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Location...About 115 MI ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
...About 165 MI SE of Biloxi MS
Max Sustained Winds...65 MPH
Moving...WNW at 8 MPH
Minimum Pressure...994 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
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Hurricane Warning Issued for the AL Coast...Sally creeping along at 6 MPH...
1100 AM EDT Update
Location...About 140 MI ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
...About 185 MI SE of Biloxi MS
Max Sustained Winds...65 MPH
Moving...WNW at 6 MPH
Minimum Pressure...991 MB
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
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Hurricane Sally Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192020
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2020
After the rapid spin up of the inner core late this morning, the
most recent aircraft passes through the center have not found any
higher flight-level winds, however there have been a few SFMR winds
of 85-90 kt reported. Using a blend of the flight-level and SFMR
winds the initial intensity has been increased to 85 kt for this
advisory. The next Air Force and NOAA aircraft have begun to sample
the storm. Now that Sally has developed an inner core, the
favorable atmospheric and ocean conditions of low vertical wind
shear and warm water should allow for additional strengthening
tonight while the system moves over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico, and Sally could approach major hurricane strength. On
Tuesday, the global models are predicting an increasing in
southwesterly flow aloft, and this increase in shear, the potential
for land interaction, and some upwelling over the shallower shelf
waters over the northern Gulf should slow the intensification
process. The NHC intensity forecast is again near the upper-end of
the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HWRF and HFIP
corrected consensus models.
Sally did not move much earlier today as the center re-formation
took place, but it appears that a slow west-northwestward to
northwestward motion has resumed. Weak ridging over the
southeastern United States is expected to steer Sally generally
west-northwestward through early Tuesday. After that time, steering
currents weaken and a slow northward motion is forecast as a weak
mid-level trough develops over the the central United States. This
trough is forecast to slide eastward, allowing Sally to begin a
slow north-northeastward or northeastward motion. The specific
timing and location of the turn will be critical as to the eventual
location and timing of landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast.
The UKMET and ECMWF models show a more northeastward motion after
the turn and have trended eastward, with the ECMWF much slower than
the remainder of the guidance. The NHC track has been adjusted
eastward, and this requires and eastward extension of the hurricane
warning. The new track most closely follows the GFS and it ensemble
mean, but lies to the west of the various consensus aids, so some
additional eastward adjustments could be needed in subsequent
advisories.
Given the uncertainty in the timing and location of the northward
turn and the lack of well-defined steering currents, users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or the specific
timing and location of landfall. Hurricane-force winds, dangerous
storm surge, and flooding rainfall will affect a large portion of
the north-central Gulf Coast during the next few days.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. It is too early to determine where Sally’s center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally’s
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC’s average
forecast error at 36 to 48 hours is around 60 to 80 miles, and
dangerous storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well
away from the center.
2. An extremely dangerous and life-threatening storm surge is
expected for areas outside the southeastern Louisiana Hurricane and
Storm Damage Risk Reduction System from Port Fourchon, Louisiana, to
the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in the Florida Panhandle, where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should
follow any advice given by local officials.
3. Hurricane conditions are expected late tonight or early Tuesday
within the Hurricane Warning area in southeastern Louisiana and are
expected by late Tuesday and Tuesday night within the Hurricane
Warning area along the Mississippi and Alabama coastlines and the
western Florida Panhandle. Tropical storm conditions are likely to
begin this evening in these areas and preparations should be rushed
to completion.
4. Life-threatening flash flooding is likely, as well as widespread
minor to isolated major flooding, on area rivers along and just
inland of the Central Gulf Coast. Significant flash and urban
flooding, as well as widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely across Mississippi and Alabama through the middle of the
week. Flooding impacts are expected to spread farther across the
Southeast through the week. Sally could continue to produce flash
flooding across the Florida peninsula and prolong existing minor
river flooding across west-central Florida through today.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 28.8N 87.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 29.2N 88.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 29.7N 88.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 30.4N 88.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 16/1800Z 31.3N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 17/0600Z 32.2N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 32.9N 85.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 33.5N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Brown
Location...About 105 MI ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River
...About 145 MI SE of Biloxi MS
Max Sustained Winds...100 MPH
Moving...WNW at 6 MPH
Minimum Pressure...987 MB
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles and Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
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