Posted on 09/08/2020 6:56:47 AM PDT by Alas Babylon!
Feehery: How Trump wins
Most political analysts believe that Joe Biden will beat Donald Trump in the coming election. They are wrong. Here are five reasons why Trump wins reelection:
1) Beating an incumbent is hard: Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, Bill Clinton and Barack Obama won their reelections not because they were great presidents but because they were incumbents. Reagan lost the Senate in 1982 and endured a crippling recession but still was able to bounce back to win a landslide in 1984. Clinton’s first two years were so bad that Democrats lost the House for the first time in 40 years. Bush blundered America into a very unpopular war in Iraq after the devastating attacks on 9/11, and yet was able to beat a hapless John Kerry in 2004. Obama’s response to the fiscal crisis of 2008 was to pass an unpopular health care law while presiding over the worst economic recovery since the Great Depression and yet he was able to beat Trump’s biggest critic, Mitt Romney. The power of incumbency is a huge advantage, which the current occupant of the White House is using very effectively, from handing out aid personally in places like Kenosha, to pardoning convicted prisoners who had turned their lives around, to using the bully pulpit to set the media narrative day after day.
(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...
Won’t take Trump much to totally privatize them. And if they support Biden, all the more he’ll do that.
It’s a solid analysis. Of course, it doesn’t take into account lots of special factors, but as a quick 5-point predictor, its sounds good.
Yesterday I posted an analysis of a well-known election predictor who says Biden will win.
Lichtman Cheats his Own 2020 Prediction Model by Plugging in Fake Facts (Trump will win!)
http://freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/3881639/posts
Certainly in close critical states (MI, WI, PA, etc...) that can determine the EC outcome, it becomes VERY easy for the SoS to continue counting ballots for 2+ weeks.
MI has already stated they expect counting to go at least 17 days past election.
The fact even Ohio’s SoS is planning to mail out millions of ballots to everyone on the voter rolls.
As I stated before, the DNC/Communist party is telling us exactly how they will steal the election.
It’s clear to all of us you’ve given up.
Are you now going to try and convince EVERY Freeper who posts today it’s hopeless, and you’re the only one who’s figured it out?
Because FRiend, the election is still two months away, and we haven’t seen the last of Donald J. Trump.
Now that you made your prediction, is their anything else you wish to add? Because, unless there is, please don’t post again to this thread, or management is going to see you’re trying to poison the well.
Good grief!
Get a bit of common sense and try re-reading my posts. They are strictly Reality101.
If one cannot grasp reality and what the enemy is doing, one cannot win the war.
No, YOU good grief!
EVERY post of yours is just repeating itself:
Cheating dems win. Cheating dems prevail. Cheating DNCMedia crushes Trump. Cheating that is insurmountable. Cheating that can’t be overcome. Cheating the entire world has never seen before.
You’ve had your say, I disagree. Reality? No. Until the election happens, they are SPECULATION.
You are not half as smart as you think you are.
Go AWAY!
Forgive me: I live in one of the bluest cities in Texas and the level of Trump-hate here among normally rational/reasonable people is astounding. My city has some red so I’m always optimistic but it’s easy for people to become complacent. I’m just reminding folks that however good or bad the current polling is, if folks want it to stay that way or make it better, they gotta vote! The liberals thought they had it sewn up with Hillary. I just don’t want folks to repeat their mistake! ;-) :-D Cheers!
There are many other reasons that can help Trump win:
6. Many more women WILL vote for him than in 2016. There were many women who didn’t vote for Trump because the sexist Trump “grab em by the p...” bomb audio that the MSM unleashed just days before the 2016 Election. The “grab ‘em” comment by Trump has all but been forgotten. A corollary to this is the fact that women gravitate towards the “law & order” candidates because they have a visceral need to feel protected.
7. Trump is now a known entity. In 2016, the MSM was working the airwaves to convince the voters that he was a nutcase and dangerous to be at the helm of the country.
8. The minority vote will be huge.
9. The “Bradley Effect” (named after polls for L.A. Mayor Tom Bradley, in which people being polled were reluctant to admit they were not voting for Tom Bradley for fear of being accused of racism, but they voted otherwise).
Likewise, there is so much “Trump-shaming” in the US (if you like Trump, you’re ridiculed by your peers). So there are many people who will not divulge their true preference for Trump to the pollsters. This is especially true if the polling is not anonymous: People fear violence for speaking their mind.
-———— Of Course, all of this could be a moot point if the Dems commit vast voter fraud. That’s why it’s so important to prevent voter fraud in this election.
Either way, the left loses.
I get it, but people are even more energized this election cycle than in 2016...particularly Trump supporters.
Our baseline is 306 electoral votes.
If the left steals the election, which they are very open about their plans, then America loses.
LOL!
Plagiarizing my comments - good grief, is that the best reply & defense you’ve got?
Doing a “cc” to Jim Robinson was quite childish, too.
Clearly, you cannot grasp reality which makes your posts quite moot.
Now slither back to your beach and bury your head in the sand again.
Buh-Bye.
I hope you're right. its been bothering me how our side gets no justice. Its seems obvious at this point we have a class system.
October is going to be interesting.
Trump’s got something planned.
Good points.
this time he knows exactly what they plan to do and is ready to fight them tooth and nail come November.
Yup
Analysis? It’s as plain as the nose on his face. Trump is going to win big. He has a great record, and his opponent is a combination of the worst of the entire DNC embodied in one bumbling old fool.
Also, he’s a personality. He’s got the bluntness of Harry Truman, the sense of humor of Ronald Reagan, and the boundless energy of Teddy Roosevelt. And some things uniquely his own.
“Trump’s got something planned.”
I hope he has his own October surprise
6. Many more women WILL vote for him than in 2016. There were many women who didn’t vote for Trump because the sexist Trump “grab em by the p...” bomb audio that the MSM unleashed just days before the 2016 Election. The “grab ‘em” comment by Trump has all but been forgotten.
I throw the libs who still bring that up by telling them that I’m actually glad he said that—because it shows us that he’s a normal down to earth dude who talks about chicks and getting laid.
I threw it in the face of an ultra-lib who was quite the promiscuous playboy back when we were counselors together in summer camp who was not shy about telling us about how many fingers he put into stacey’s can, or how monica was so wasted at the party that she let him stick a long-neck budweiser bottle in her bung as she was half-passed out
high-five-ing the guys of course when telling it over.
but of course, he respects women!
7. Trump is now a known entity. In 2016, the MSM was working the airwaves to convince the voters that he was a nutcase and dangerous to be at the helm of the country.
I know a few people who weren’t enthused with Trump in 2016 (obviously voted for him though over hildabeast) and called him a buffoon and idiot etc.....
They are 110% behind him now.
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