Posted on 08/28/2020 7:36:12 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
It remains something of a mystery why there's so little apprehension among liberal pundits and Democrats about the similarities between battleground state polling for the 2020 presidential election and 2016 contest -- which as you might recall did not turn out as expected.
Consider the case of Wisconsin:
The RealClearPolitics average had Clinton +6.5 in Wisconsin on Election Day in 2016. In August of that year, she had been +11.5. Not a single poll featured on RCP during the entire campaign showed Donald Trump winning the state. Democratic Party nominee Joe Biden has a +3.5 average right now -- which is to say, he is underperforming Clinton in the middle of a pandemic and ensuing economic collapse. This is the case in several battleground states. What happens if the coronavirus continues to ebb or the economy continues rebounding over the next couple of months?
A new CNBC poll, for instance, finds that as serious concerns about the coronavirus fell in six 2020 battleground states, approval of Trump's handling of COVID-19 rose.
This average, incidentally, was taken before the Kenosha riots. As Wisconsin radio host Dan O'Donnell points out to me, many Republicans in the state believe the August 2016 riots in Milwaukee over the shooting death of Sylville Smith (an incident that was eventually ruled to be justified) likely played a role Trump's win. It was around the time the polls began to tighten. "Milwaukee is seen outstate as being wholly unlike the rest of the largely rural population because of its crime and Democrat policies," O'Donnell says. "If people in, say, Appleton and Oshkosh (the other big swing area) and the heavily red suburbs think Milwaukee-style rioting could come to their cities next, Democrats are in big trouble here."
A new Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin found that support for Black Lives Matter was dropping even before the riots broke out. In June, approval of protests was widespread, with 61% approving and 36% disapproving. By August, 48% were approving and 48% disapproving. It is possible those numbers will take a bigger hit after Kenosha.
Other swing states find Biden similarly underperforming. He is +5.5 in Pennsylvania today. Hillary Clinton was +9.2 the same day in 2016. Polls would tighten, but Clinton still ended up +2 on Election Day. Biden is +7 in Michigan today, and Clinton was +9 on the same day in 2016. Even in traditionally Democratic Minnesota polls show some tightening.
Florida is the only battleground state where Biden (+3.7) is outperforming Clinton (+2.7). Clinton was up +2.8 in August. The Florida polls would also tighten in 2016. Now, if Trump loses Florida, none of the other swing states are going to matter, anyway. That said, Democrat Andrew Gillum was + 3.6 over Republican Ron DeSantis in the governor's race and Bill Nelson was +2.6 over Rick Scott in the Senate race on Election Day in 2018. Both Democrats were above 50% in at least three of the last five polls conducted in the state, and both lost their elections. That's a trend.
I'm no prognosticator. I was convinced Trump would be beaten soundly in 2016. Maybe pollsters have fixed the problems of four years ago. Or maybe Biden's lead will prove more durable than Clinton's. No election is the same. What I don't understand, however, is why so many people seem so utterly convinced that this time will be different.
WE BETTER BE PREPARED FOR THIS BECAUSE I FORSEE CHAOS AHEAD.
Definitely a mess. We won’t know results for months. 2000 will look quaint.
I think it’s a GREAT sign... :)
Yes, they believe they have it in the bag—EVERY mailbag and every dumpster in the country will ensure their victory. At least that’s what they hope. I think Trump knows this.
He’s performing? Well, at least he finally mentioned the riots. That they are the fault of PDJT.
Underperforming? Heck, I don’t think he’s performing at all. This hiding in the basement strategy may fall a little short. Beware the ballot harvesting - it will be a crop like no other year.
FOLKS — here’s the BIG WILDCARD -— MAIL-IN VOTING.
~~~
Even if they don’t fraudulently harvest ballots on a wide spread scale, it doesn’t matter. Mail in ballots are the perfect vehicle for law suits.
Expect lots of court orders requiring ballots to continue to get counted for weeks and weeks after the election. They will try to prolong this all the way to inauguration day.
They’re going to need more than a couple of trunk loads of lost ballots. More like a couple of cargo containers.
Not much of a mystery. Thousands upon thousands of mail-ins and "harvested" ballots are certainly bolstering their confidence of cheating winning.
Probably more New Yorkers than ever answering the Florida polls. But that's a proper sampling because they'll be voting in both states too. :-(
Yeah - I was gonna say...
I have no doubt. I think that as interesting as 2020 has been, 2021 will be historic. And not just January.
I think you are right. However, there are deadlines built into the law for choosing electors to the electoral college. There is a date in mid-December by which states must choose electors. Theoretically a mid-December date gives states plenty of time to certify election returns from a November 3rd election. But with the chaos we could see with mail in ballots, who knows what will happen.
But theoretically, a new law would need to be passed, to bypass that mid-December date for choosing electors. In the worst case, if states don’t certify election results for the electoral college member,states could lose their electors in this election.
But that won’t happen. The courts will get involved to prevent that.
I agree. They’re going to try to steal this with mail-in votes.
Trump will beat Biden like Reagan beat Mondull. Biden has Dementia. He has been hiding from scrutiny for many months.
Sooner or later he’ll answer questions and debate, then it’s all over.
WE BETTER BE PREPARED FOR THIS BECAUSE I FORSEE CHAOS AHEAD.
But Trump is well aware of this and isn't stupid or afraid to play hardball, he's spent $700 million building campaign infrastructure in the battlegroup states. It wouldn't surprise me if already has undercover Private Investigators "planted" in every major democrat "get out the vote" organization. Something really shady like a nationwide vote fraud attempt would take tons of coordination (which means lots of evidence like meetings, emails, recorded phone calls and the like) if there is even a whiff of something like this occurring, the secretly video taped meetings and recorded phone calls will be on Fox News in minutes.
The polls didn’t agree in 2016 because people like me lied to pollsters or simply didn’t take their calls.
That phenomenon has not decreased, in this world of over-the-top media hate, propaganda, BLM, etc, - IMHO, even more people are distrustful and lying to pollsters than ever before
If Biden can’t lead in manufactured, fake-news polling, what do we think the reality is?
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