Posted on 08/21/2020 9:31:47 AM PDT by Red Badger
Used Vehicle Prices Explode To All Time Highs After Plunging Just Months Ago Tyler Durden Thu, 08/20/2020 - 22:05
When you have the Central Bank back-stopping every industry in the United States, it's incredible how quickly things can change over the course of less than a quarter.
Less than two months ago we were talking about the unprecedented crash in used car prices that had taken place as a result of the coronavirus pandemic slowing the economy. "Where's the inflation?" everyone kept asking.
We think we've found it. Today, according to new research from Manheim, those prices have exploded to hit new all time highs. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value index climbed to 163.4 in the first 15 days of August from 158.0 in July.
"Prices rose another +3.4% sequentially in the first 15 days of August after rising +5.8% m/m in July," a new note from J.P. Morgan highlights. It continues: "With the Manheim Index at 163.4 in early August (January 1995 = 100), used prices are now +13.9% higher vs. the then record level in February just prior to the pandemic and are +15.6% y/y."
J.P. Morgan notes that "Since April, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value index recovered +8.9% m/m in May, +9.0% m/m in June, +5.8% m/m in July, and is now +3.4% m/m in the first 15 days of August. Stronger prices suggest potential gains on sale of off-lease vehicles and higher collateral value, helping reduce loan losses."
The note predicts that prices should see some respite heading into the fall, as "pent up demand" as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic should subside. Most of this demand has already been satisfied, according to Manheim, and consumers are growing "increasingly frustrated" from the high prices.
It's worth noting, however, that these same prognosticators were predicting a "sharp drop" in prices heading into the back end of the summer. That obviously didn't materialize. Additionally, the same note says that consumers could be waiting for a second round of stimulus to purchase a vehicle.
Recall, it was just two months ago that we had put out a note highlighting where used car prices were crashing the most in the U.S.
Back in June, Manheim indicated that wholesale prices dropped as much as 11% in April, but also that this price drop hadn't fully hit the retail market yet. The report predicted at the time that since "dealers have largely avoided purchasing new inventory in recent weeks, they aren’t in a rush to cut prices as a way to move their existing inventory."
It also predicted a sharp drop in retail prices in the coming weeks, stating that "a combination of record supply, damaged consumer confidence, and new car incentives will ultimately create a perfect storm causing retail prices to drop sharply in the coming weeks."
Between January and May, individual U.S. states experienced price drops ranging from 1% to 5%, the report showed.
Those days now seem to be distant memories...
Looks like it’s time to sell my FR-S with 190k commuter miles on it. I won’t be needing it any more.
We were forced to purchase a newer car last week. The salesman told us the dealership is relying on trade-ins right now because prices at auction were outrageous.
Fix what ya got, folks!
So, they’re predicting a surplus in new vehicle inventory in the coming weeks? That certainly would cause lower prices for both used vehicles and excess new vehicle inventory that is soon to be mostly “last year’s” models.
This is not really what it seems, there can be higher priced cars on the resale market which would account for this. People who lose their newer cars because they can’t or don’t want to make the payments. Commuting is far less. So people may be just changing the cars they have.
People trading in their city bikes for suburban cars.
My son-in-law is a used car salesman, and we are friends with a few used car dealership owners around town. Their inventory is almost as bad as when the ‘Cash For Clunkers’ Obama disaster was going on. It nearly wiped out the used car industry......................
I thought some rental car company was dumping cars because of no business?
Yes, but their cars are premium values, not the higher mileage used cars that keep the secondary market afloat.............
Traded in my 2015 F150 Super Cab V8 and got above blue book value for it. I was very happy.
I have four cars and only need two now. The only reason I keep my first gen Scion xB is because it looks terrible since I hit a deer with it at 150k miles, it now has 225k miles, and it still drives and feels pretty much like new - but it’s only worth about $500 used. No point in selling. I’ll drive it into the ground.
But I’m willing to sell the FR-S “relatively” cheap, just to get the money to pay off my house that much faster. Frankly, for 195k miles I basically raced that thing on the back roads of KY every day on the best “street legal” Michelin sport tires on beautifully maintained Kentucky twisties. I’m kinda bored with it.
Used cars have been pricey for the last 10 years. My husband sells for Honda and he found a 2005 Toyota Corolla one owner with 84k miles for my 17 year old. He paid a employee cost price of 3k. Hubby said the dealership would have sold the car for 6k.
——. The only reason I keep my first gen Scion xB is because it looks terrible since I hit a deer with it at 150k miles, it now has 225k miles——
My brother has the same car (Scion) and has just over 300k miles on it. It’s faded from the FL sun but it still drives like new.
I am making some progress on all vehicle project fronts.
No more new ones for me. I don’t have a modern day super garage plus factory and dealer training.
Vintage jeep and chevrolet I understand.
Just bought a used car and they were literally flying of the lots. I feel like we got really lucky getting the car we got at the price we settled on.
I loved ours. If they still made them, we'd still have one.
Hopefully I will get more for my 2015 Dodge Challenger when I Trade it in on the 2020 Corvette Convertible I have on order.
I’ll be stopping at CarMax on the way to the Dealer to see what they offer me.
Where I live the Trade In reduces the amount you are charged in Sales Tax on the new Car Purchase.
All the used car lots around town are getting critical in their inventories. It reminds me of the ‘Cash for Clunkers’ disaster Obamanoids foisted upon the nation. It nearly destroyed the used car industry.............
What happened to the “Hertz Rent-a-Car is going to file bankruptcy and drop 250,000 used cars on the market” story?
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