COVID-19 Update - 08/09/2020

My own workup | 08/09/2020 | DoughtyOne

[DoughtyOne]

PING LIST - Please contact me as needed...

COVID-19 Update # 144

As of 08/08/2020 23:15 PDST     United States CDC - Provisional Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Nations Informaton
As of 00/00/2020 23:45 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Capture Counties Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:46 PDST     Johns Hopkins University - Process JHU Data
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Document Core Numbers
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture Nations Information
As of 00/00/2020 23:59 PDST     WorldofMeters - Capture States Information
As of 00/00/2020 00:00 PDST     WorldofMeters - Data Processing begins...
As of 00/00/2020 ??:?? PDST     Publish COVID-19 Update - 00/00/00

Thank you for stopping by to check out the COVID-19 Update.

Here you can find...

Section: 01     Commentary, Special Reports, COVID-19 Update Info, & System Notes
Section: 02     the United States Situation
Section: 03     the Global Community Situation Outside China
Section: 04     the Global Community Situation Including China with reservations
Section: 05     the Mortality Report
Section: 06     Miscellaneous Reports of Interest
Section: 07     the United States, Counties (alphabetical / case no descending)
Section: 08     the United States, States Ranking, Provisional Numbers, & Territories
Section: 09     the United States, Ranked with Other Nations
Section: 10     the End of this COVID-19 Update
Section: 11     Data Sources and a Link to My Own Spreadsheet
Section: 12     Linked Spreadsheet: Counties, States, Provisional, Territories, & Nations
Section: 13     Links to Other Resources

Section: 01

Commentary, Special Reports, and COVID-19 Update Information³
Interesting Tid-bits (hopefully)

Fatalities

Fatalities were off 329 cases from the previous day, to come in at 970. That was
a 15.50% decrease from last week's Saturday.

Global and Domestic New Case Declarations

Global New Cases came in slightly higher than the week before, at 263,551. That
was a 3.29% increase from the week before.

U. S. New Cases were down 7.10% from last week, coming in at 54,312. Testing came
in at 759,753 compared to the 636,628 the week before. That was a 12.32%
increase from the week before.

That would intimate that New Cases should have risen by roughly 12.32% or 7,202
cases. That didn't happen, as we fell off 4,151 cases.

New Trend in Lower US Declared Cases Defies Elevated Testing Logic

I've been going by the theory that if you test twice as many people, you're likely
to find twice as many New Cases. Let's face it. If you're testing the same body
of people, and you test more, to me it would stand to reason you would find
relatively the same positive testing percentage in the second half, you did in the
first. Well, yesterday it didn't play out that way, at least as this observer
would think that it would.

Testing rose 12.32% higher yesterday than last week. Interestingly (at least
to me), New Cases fell off by 7.10%. Even if we calculate the drop off of
the postive percentage, that would only account for 928 of the 4,151 decrease
in active caes decleared for the day. Postive testing That would only account
for 22.36% of the count drop in New Cases.

Here we are going in the opposite direction. Testing is slacking off for whatever
reason, and so New Case numbers are falling. Again I mention this to alert folks
not to adopt a false impression. The falling New Case declarations now, are not
solely due to an improving infectious environment. Testing is off by a certain
percent, so naturally not as many New Cases are being detected.

This is not a criticism of testing. It's about seeing the situation for what it
truly is.

Section: 02

The Following Addresses the Numbers Here in
the United Staetes of America

Here we go...

That's a pretty big drop. As stated above in the comments, this drop went
against my higher testing/higher New Cases theory. Please review the comments
above.

Concept of adding in Active Cases and Serious Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here are more of our numbers...

Active Cases continued with normal growth yesterday. A couple of times this week
their numbers actually fell.

Our Slice of the COVID-19 Pie

The growth of our slice of the pie has been increasing recently.

Here are the numbers I've been tracking, Globally Declared and Active Cases.

We saw better numbers for three days, and now see a return to the mixed
bag this catergory has been more often than not lately.

Active Cases in the United States / Chart

Unlike some of the other charts here, we should see a good rise and
fall at some point withone.

Note that this presents the single, seven, and fourteen day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new Declared Cases. These are remaing Active Cases.

Back in early June, I was hoping we were finally seeing the light. Welllll...
not exactly. Look where we've gone from there. Now the red seven-day averaging
line is beginning to resemble the same flattening from that June period. I hope
that matures with the U. S. making a good go at defeating this disease.

Testing and New Case Figures
Requested by stocksthatgoup

Some folks have shown an interest in seeing the COVID-19 Test figures compared
to the New Cases being declared. The following Data addresses that. The size
of it just doesn't seem reasoned to me.

Why/how could the posive portion of the popoulace vary ass much as 2.0% from day
to day? I could a lot easier see a 2.0% trend over three or four days. One day?
Nah.

Testing Levels rose yeterday, while the postive percentage went town.

In the Commentary Section I address this interesting turn of events.

The three-day aveaging line changed only a little yesterday, since the
single day figure came in very close to the running average.

The U. S. Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/17
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/17, but the data displayed
here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

Okay, I believe we are seeing an ever so slightly beginning of a move toward
flattening there on that top blue Declared Cases line. The numbers have indicated
this type of move for seven days now. It should show up more prominantly here if
this continues for a few more days.

The red Active Case line is showing some improvement there also. It has been
partially hidden, and is emerging mor flattened out. Would like to see that
continue and improve.

United States Movers and Shakers...

I will present the U S States with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities rankings.

Here we go...

Florida topped both categories yeterday. Texas has seemd to do a bit better.

Section: 03

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
without Mainland China

Here is the first set of Data for the Global Outside China
Territories

New Cases came in very high yesterday.

Fata.lities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active Cases, and
Serious/Critical Cases - Globally, Excluding M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

Here we go...

Active Cases grew at a normal pace yesterday in this region.

How is the Global Community Outside China Doing,
Without U. S. numbers?

Let's see...

Yesteray this area improved yesterday.

Yesterday's numbers fell off a bit from Friday. The Global Scene was still in
very high territory, while the numbers in the U. S. were more moderate by
recent standings.

That blue line is dropping off recent highs. That is the current trend
and I'm hopeful it will continue. Of course that belies the fact our testing
has been down recently, so this is likely somewhat artificial rather than a
clear breakthrough.

. The Active Cases outside China Globally / Chart

As in the U. S. version of this, we should see a good rise and fall at
some point these two.

Note that these present the one day and then 7 and 14 day averaging versions.

Remember, these are not new declared Cases. These are remaing active cases.

Special Section on France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the U. K.
Case growth.

Jim Noble mentioned he'd like to see the US numbers added here. I added them
in on 06/21/2020. I did not add them to the chart because it would have
dwarfed the European nations chart lines. (they would have been reduced to
about 15% of their normal size)

Let's Look at Some Numbers in Five Day Increments:

Spain continues to spike upwards in its New Cases, and it seems to be getting
stronger, not weaker. All these nations are seeing their recent case declarations
rise. Several other nations have seen a noticable rise in recent days. Are they
about to go the way of Spain?

Sweden and It's Neighbors, Who Has the Best Tactic Against COVID-19?

Sweden is doing its own thing with regard to isolating. I think most people
are aware of it by now.

Here are some numbers to help us look at this issue.

Sweden's New Case level had been moderating, but we can see a bit of an upturn
back to old habits there, so to speak. I was hoping we had seen the worst of it.

Looks like the Netherlands is making a move there also, and in the wrong direction.

Global Movers and Shakers...

I will present the top fifty nations with the most New Cases and New
Fatilities.

Here we go...

The United States is stilly vying for both categories here, but missed out
on the first one to India yesterday.

Global osChina Stats / w 10 Day Averaging / Fr: 03/05
Requested by: Texas Eagle

This data and chart presents things in a little different way. In the
chart it is easy to see the relationship of these numbers.

The Chart will use the data all the way back to 03/05, but the data
displayed here will only go back one month.

Here is the chart to match.

I like being able to follow the movement of these stats visually.

Section: 04

The Following Addresses the Global Numbers
including Mainland China*

Mainland China's numbers are 0.013% of today's total global numbers.

A Look at Declared, Resolved<, and Active Cases, Includes M/L China

End of day figures follow:

We moved into the 67.0% zone of the Resolved Case rate. It looks as if 68.0%
might be soon to follow. That being said, our rise has slowed to a snail's
pace over the last five days.

Fatalities, Recoveries, Resolved, Active, and Serious/Critical
Cases Globally, Including M/L China
Concept of adding in Active Cases and
Serious/Critical here, courtesy of amorphous

The Serious/Critical case Load has improved over the last week, but yesterday
the Global Community lost ground. That light grey number on the far right
denotes some activity in Mainland China starting around ten days ago. Not
taking it to mean much more than that there is some activity going on in China,
that isn't being fully reported, AGAIN!

Section: 05

the Mortality Report

Here is the data for four entities...

Here are the figures for the growing case totals for four entities.

We hear all sorts of stories about how these figures are wildly off. The CDC
has studied them and seems to think they may actually be on the low side of
things. I am providing the CDC Provential Numbers down below. Not sure if
anyone has a rock solid number. I doubt it is possible. This is what is
reported out by WoM and JHU. Check out the CDC numbers too.

Charts like this one only show growth. That's why I recently took the advice
of a FReeper and added in a new chart for the U. S. and Global outside China
regions.

Here are figures revealing the daily growth for those four entities.

Fatalities fell off in the U. S. yesterday, by 15.58% from the previous week.

Since the beginning of COVID-19's activity in the U. S., higher New Cases were
soon followed by elevated Fatalities. If we have gone to school on the data
of this disease, we know who should avoid exposure the most. So if the
demographic that has little to fear from the disease is out there getting
infected, it may not be a bad thing at all. If the Fatalities remain low,
vastly higher cases may simply increase the rapidity of the saturation of the
people in public who have already fought it off. And that may facilitate the
end of the disease. I'm sure others know this, but I did want to explain why
my thinking has fluctuated over time regarding these dynamics.

Here, let's look at data for the U. S. broken out by itself.

Fatalities fell off a little yesterday. From the week before we were down 11.45%.

This chart pretty well tells the story. Higher highs and higher lows... There
seems to be a move heading lower right now. That was reflected here minimally.
In coming days, I hope to see that become more pronounced. None of us know for
sure though, so we continue to hope for the best and check the numbers.

Section: 06

Population Saturation

Here are figures revealing how many people in each population base represent one
case. I'm also showing what percent of each population base is infected at this
time.

Even though these stats aren't as some we have seen recently, we're still doing
a bit better than we were.

Nations With Lots of Cases

At the end of the day yesterday, there were:

It's hard to belive there are that many nations with 1,000 cases.

Daily Case Report Evaluation

I'll be keeping tabs on the daily tallies for days of the week for a while. Folks have
noticed some patterns of larger and smaller data entry on certain days, and on Fridays
sometimes the numbers get noticeably larger because of it.

And we now know Thursdays have potential to break out also. Yikes!

IMO Let's check out the numbers and a chart.

Three of the five recent days shown there, fail to depict a new record for
the specific day of the week. That is a big deal. Momentum has momentarily
gone flat or a bit of a retreat.

Section: 07

The Top 200 Counties in the U. S., by Number of Cases

This little report lists 200 Counties in the United States in declining Case numbers.
There is also a listing that is alphabetical. This report list only the entities
and the number of Cases in the two different sorts.

It will also be available as a downloadable Excel file in Section 12.

For months Puerto Rico was showing up with the Counties. That stopped in early July
if memory serves me well.

Section: 08

States of the Union and the District of Columbia, Compared to Each Other

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

If this area interests you, please use this LINK to the source, and review
the lengthy description and explanation of it's development process.

There are two reports. The presentation above comes from the second one,
and the detailed segmented information below it, may interest you.

These can now also be found under the states on the Alphabetical list. The
states and these entity's numbers should be combined to match that of the
U. S. figures each day.

Section: 09

The United States, Where it Ranks With Other Nations?

Each of these pages is sorted differently. Look at the red header above
the columns to see which column was used for the sort on any given page.

The U. S. will be highlighted red here so we can find it easily in the list.
There was 215 nations on this list last night now. I didn't want to post
seven lists with 215 nations on it, so I picked the top 50. Coincidentally,
one report category had the U. S. at 41st, so it wasn't showing up on the
list with the 31 top nations on it. That wasn't the reason why I extended the
list length, but it did work out well.

I work on the nations right next to the states on my spreadsheet. The
states with the District of Columbia come in at a total of 51 lines.
I decided to keep the international reports near that length, and 50
was good enough.

Here we go... for your review.

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

For your review...

Around 06/23, China started putting out it's testing numbers. I thought
they were suspect. The number they put out was 90,410,000. Ours and most
everyone else's numbers are specific. For instance on 06/28, our number of
of tests at the ned of the day was 32,592,368. That specificity separates it
from the number China put out. It was rounded to the 10 thousandth place. In
addition, China has not updated that number once. So I do not inlude China in
the Nation's Comparison Sort regarding Testing, and any place that reports out
global testing numbers for a top level comparison.

After a few days in 18th place in this category, we fell back to 19th two days
aga and remained there yesterday.

Section: 10

Here is what it is all about. From January 20th to the present.

This concludes our look back at yesterday's data. Take care...

Court Sesy of: foldspace

Section: 11

Data for this Report Sourced From:

LINK   WorldoMeters

LINK   Johns Hopkins University
               The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE)

LINK   United States Center for Disease Control - Provisional Numbers

Listed in the order of current utilization...

LINK   You are Invited to Review My COVID-19 Spreadsheet (XLSX)
               There is not an XLS version available for distribution at this time.

Section: 12

Other Features:

LINK   US Counties²⁰⁰, States & DC⁵¹, Territories & Other Entities¹¹, Nations²¹⁹,
                and the CDC Provisional Counts⁵³
                Five Excel Spreadsheet datasets you can sort for your own studies...

Section: 13

Links to other resources:
I cannot vouch for these sites. Please use your own judgement.

LINK   Adventist Health Coronavirus Resource Hub - Scroll down for useful info

LINK   Antibiotic Vitamin, the (Vitamin D)
               Good article on Vitamin D's likely role in prevention of infection. Thanks Blam.

LINK   CDC Data for Download - Scroll down - Excel required. Includes death stats.

LINK   CDC National Center for Health Services
               Provisional deaths as determined by review of vital documents. Much lower...

LINK   CDC Secondary Data and Statistics - Portal Entry / Look around

LINK   Coronavirus (COVID-19) Map

LINK   Coronavirus infection risk may be reduced by Vitamin D
               by Former CDC Chief Dr. Tom Frieden

LINK   Coronavirus Spread Quickly Around the World in Late 2019, Study Shows
               the University College London Genetics Institute

LINK   COVID-19 Deaths Broken Out by Thirds, 05/07/20 Map of US Counties
               Very revealing display of Concentrated Death Zones - thanks hoosiermama

LINK   COVID-19 First U.S. Case, Treatment, features Remdesivir
               New England Journal of Medicine article

LINK   Cytokine Storm, med Actemra, Physician near death saved

LINK   Diamond Princess Review at 634 Case Point of Eventual 712

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Article: International Poll
               Daily Mail Reports, Most Effective Treatment According to 6,000 Physicians

LINK   Hydroxychloroquine Has about 90 Percent Chance of Helping COVID-19 Patients
               the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, reports 91.6% of patients improved clinically

LINK   IHME - Institute for Health Matrix and Evaluation

LINK   National Institutes of Health - Cornavirus (COVID-19)

LINK   Nasal Irrigation is the Key, COVID-19 Related

LINK   New York City - interesting breakdown, borough, age, sex

LINK   On the Origin of CCP Virus, A Documentary Movie (turn up the sound)
               Epoch Times: I highly recommend this very well documented report.

LINK   R_t COVID-19
               Calculates and displays the R_t Factor for each state. Thanks FreedomPoster.

LINK   World Health Organization

[DoughtyOne]

[teeman8r]

How long must this charade go on... president trump, this has got to stop

[Deaf Smith]

Got any CDC side by side comparison to 2009’s H1N1 (Swine Flu) where as the US had 60 million carriers, before Hussein stopped reporting?

[Deaf Smith]

Got any CDC side by side comparison to 2009’s H1N1 (Swine Flu) where as the US had 60 million carriers, before Hussein stopped reporting?

[amorphous]

9 Aug:

Recalculated

•Blue line represents projected death totals.
•Yellow line is actual death totals based on WorldofMeters.info data.
•Purple line is actual daily cases offset by 14 days.
•Red line represents projected daily deaths.
•Black extension lines are trend lines.

[DoughtyOne]

Do you think Trump is a mindless dufus?

I’m for opening up. We have to do it to save what is
left of economy.

I’m not convinced this is only a charade.

In hind sight did it pan out to be what it was initially
sold as? Not at all.

There are still problems.

Most states could open up with no problem with reasoned
precautions.

States like California, Texas, and Florida are still
peaking.

[amorphous]

If something doesn’t change, like this week, or soon, we could easily have half a million dead in the US, by the time we enter another year of this.

[familyop]

Some folks have been saying that eventually, everyone will be infected. The chart above (”CASE SATURATION and INFECTION RATES”) says that 0.7095% have been infected so far. That leaves only 99.2905% to go! :)

[deport]

A little more readable for us ol' farts.

[stormhill]

Looking at these numbers shows that it's the position of the publishers the total number of deaths from Covid-19 in China is less than 5,000 people.

Five thousand.

Wait a second. In China.

Please tell me again, why am I taking any of this seriously?

[2aProtectsTheRest]

Why would you take any numbers from the Chinese at face value? Nobody else in the world is. Everyone knows they’ve been lying to all of us from the start. They didn’t warn anyone how serious this was and Italy got slammed with no warning as a result.

It’s being taken seriously because it’s already killed over 165,000 American citizens in just a few months and it’s nowhere near over. Without a vaccine (which President Trump has assured us is coming very soon), we could eventually see that number climb over 500,000 up to possibly 850,000 or so.

[2aProtectsTheRest]

Thank you for posting the larger image. I was squinting about as hard as I could at the other and still wasn’t having much luck with it.

[teeman8r]

Just the flu bro.

[deport]

You can control the size of the image by adding a dimension
at the end of the URL. example, w=700 or any number you
choose. Just check it before you post. w is the width

[2aProtectsTheRest]

Was this intended toward me? It was amorphous who posted the original image. The data is presently nicely, I just had difficulty with the sizing because of my eyes.

[amorphous]

Apologies. I’ll try to work on the sizing. One thing, in the mean time, is hold down the *Ctrl* key, while using your scroll wheel on your mouse to adjust the scaling on most browsers. You can then drag something around to view. Once you’re done, hold down the *Ctrl* key again, and use the scroll wheel to return everything back to normal. Works great for viewing hard to read web pages, etc.

[2aProtectsTheRest]

Appreciate the tip! Few things make me feel as old as when I’m trying to see small text on the computer.

[bert]

Well,well ....... thanks for that from me as well

[amorphous]

I know what you mean. I can’t go anywhere, anymore, without my reading glasses going with me. I also bought one of those magnifying apps for my phone, which is great for the really, really small type on bottles and finding splinters in fingers, and etc.