Skip to comments.Media is obsessed with COVID-19 cases, but death rate is what is important; Breathy Accounts of 'Spikes' Are Just 'Panic Porn'
Posted on 07/07/2020 8:27:42 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
The most dangerous flaw in the modern news media is their now constant vulnerability of becoming deeply invested in a particular narrative at the very start of a large story, and then having the ensuing tunnel vision prevent them from adjusting their reporting as new facts become available.
I am referring here to the news medias obsession with using new cases as by far the most common, and often only, data point for evaluating how the nation is coping with the coronavirus crisis.
For more than two weeks, ever since June 19, when new cases in the United States went back over 30,000 in one day, we have been constantly bombarded with stories of how the virus is spiking in record numbers in many of the states (like California, Texas, Florida, and Arizona) that were not hit hard in the first wave.
Across the country, our number of new cases has indeed exploded to new levels during this time period (though, magically, the media tells us, very little, if any, of this surge can be blamed on Black Lives Matter protests/riots), and the news media, both at the national and local levels, have used these statistics to essentially create panic porn. The resulting public anxiety has caused several states to reverse their re-openings and cast a pall over major decisions currently being made all over the country, not just with regard to recreation options, but specifically with respect to the future of schools and major sporting events.
Obviously the new case data point is both real and relevant, but it is also now extremely misleading. By incompetently using the same measure of what a positive virus test meant in April, to what it now means in July, the news media is in the process of, quite effectively, sabotaging Americas recovery
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Been saying this for weeks.
Cases cases cases, show me deaths, flat line deaths then its no worse than Flu
Be your own guide, mask no mask 6 feet whatever
I know a bunch of people who are panicking hard. Cases are SPIKING!!
The death rate does not match the ‘claimed probable infection’ rate. MMMMMMM wonder why?
Seems like for 2+1/2 weeks the same media stopped talking about COVID completely.
Only talked about ‘peaceful protests’
More cases with fewer deaths = less deadly and no pandemic.
Understand the math. You it’s just the flu guys do not understand the math.
If you were computing pregnancy rate you would not include men in the count of the denominator. They are not relevant to the measurement.
This disease kills almost exclusively the elderly. We have known this for 5 months.
So since 20 year olds are not dying, you don’t have them in the death numerator and if they aren’t in the numerator they don’t belong in the denominator either.
The death count nationwide rose yesterday vs the week before. Only the 2nd week that has happened in the past 4 months. The death count is ending its decline. This doesn’t mean it will rise. It means it will hold constant and not at 0.
If that level is 600 deaths/day it’s an increase in elderly deaths vs a normal year of about 11%.
But regardless, understand the math. Get the young out of the denominator. They aren’t in the numerator so they don’t belong in the denominator.
Deaths and hospitalizations specifically for CCP Chest Cold and not something else with the CCP cold being asymptomatic/minor and incidental. Those are recorded “hard” numbers. Worldometers has death reports, but It’s hard to find actual numbers on actual CCP cold hospitalizations. Or CCP antibody results. Because “they” (as in the Fake News) don’t want real numbers coming out...
As I have occasionally but consistently posted since early March:
Almost everyone will be “exposed”
Some will become symptomatic.
A few will be really sick.
A few will die.
This is not your great great grandfather’s Spanish Influenza.
No. You include everybody who is exposed to it in the denominator. And if it kills mostly old people in nursing homes, it literally IS the flu, because the flu does exactly the same thing.. Kill old people and those in nursing homes. Every year. Year in and year out.
You only exclude young people who catch it from the denominator if you want to lie and spread panic porn “numbers”.
April - "Doctor, I'm caughing, I am running a fever, and I cannot breathe so I came here to the E.R." "Let's test you for COVID."
July - "Doctor, I'm worried that I might have caught COVID, even though I feel fine and just have a slight cough, so I would like to get tested." "Okay, go to Rite-Aid with this prescription and they'll test you."
Here in Allegheny County, PA we are in full masked-up fear porn mode. Despite the fact that as of this weekend are numbers were:
County population: 1.22 million
COVID deaths since start of pandemic: 187
Number of those which occurred in nursing homes: 147
Total COVID deaths under age 60: 12
But now you’re talking cases and infection vectors. That’s incorrect math. We are talking about death. You don’t include samples in a death calculation who are not vulnerable to death. The young essentially aren’t.
The majority of deaths are not in nursing homes. Many are. The majority are not. The VAST majority are old. The old DEFINE the numerator.
And thus must define the denominator, too.
You know this is true. Don’t contort around it for the economy. The old die. They are the vulnerable. They are the Excess Deaths.
You can see lockdown on the Excess Deaths webpage of the CDC. You can see the curves plummet. But the end of the economy is too great a price. You COULD just quarantine the elderly, not the whole population.
But . . . and this is the ugly subtle item . . . the elderly are 23% of the population and they spend life savings and pensions. They are a huge part of the economy. They have to eat so they still spend, but if they are selectively locked down, they won’t spend on cruises and airplane trips and whatever. They are 23% and 1/2 of their spending would erase. That’s 11% of national revenues in an economy that struggles to get 2% GDP growth.
There is no answer here without a cure. Period.
Stanford doctor: Coronavirus fatality rate for people under 45 ‘almost 0%’
Washington Examiner ^ | 07/05/2020 |
A very crude estimate might suggest that about 150-300 million or more people have already been infected around the world, far more than the 10 million documented cases.
Ioannidis pointed out the mortality rate is low among young people who have contracted the virus.
The death rate in a given country depends a lot on the age structure, who are the people infected, and how they are managed, Ioannidis said. For people younger than 45, the infection fatality rate is almost 0%. For 45 to 70, it is probably about 0.05%-0.3%.
“Cases” don't mean much of anything. By far most “cases” are totally asymptomatic. Of course ALL "cases" should and must be in the denominator.
Your attempts at panic porn are getting more desperate and pathetic by the minute. And they are not working.
my wife likes to watch him
sorry to hear that
Of course you do.
The young and everybody else have been included in the death rate calculation from the get go.
Now that the death rate has been found to be equal to or even less than the common flu, you come up with this total nonsense?
Go peddle your garbage at DU.
Sadly, deaths are going to skyrocket again, it takes about 2 to 3 weeks lag time for deaths to follow case rate climb.
Arizon has 120 already today
Florida at 63
By end of day will be way above where we’ve been, heading back up to 2,000 a day dead, maybe more. This thing is going to drag on for years and years, sucks.