Posted on 07/03/2020 4:32:11 AM PDT by Diognetes
The most recent Washington Post/ABC News poll, for instance, gives Biden a 53–43 percent lead among registered voters nationally. On June 26, 2016, a Washington Post/ABC News poll — noting that Trump’s support had “plunged” — put Hillary up over the Republican 51–39 among registered voters nationwide in a head-to-head contest.
The reasons?
...
Only thing that matters is Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. He needs to keep North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Iowa and Florida. Do all that and we’re golden for four more years.
Then after 2016, you'd think that rhe remaining polling firms would change their methodology. But apparently the goals are to make headlines, make money for the firms (frequently associated with colleges and universities) and employ cheap labor (frequently students).
Not to be accurate.
If they can discourage Republican and conservative voters, that's just gravy.
The only purpose of the dishonest polling (other than to discourage Conservatives) is to legitmize their attempt to steal the election in 2020. This is what they have invested everything in. The problem for them in 2016 is that people started to recognize the BS that the polls are. They are stupid, propaganda, lying tools...Always have been...
Of course that is not always the case, for instance the reason Hillary was projected to win by 8-12 points was because the models were projecting she would get the same massive black turnout and do as well as Obama did in 2012 with Hispanic, and blue collar whites. None of those things happened and Hillary lost. But for some reason, the polling companies seem to want to ignore the fact that 2016 even happened and just assume the electorate will mirror 2012, with Biden getting Obama levels of black turnout and doing as well with Hispanics and blue collar whites.
I just don't see that happening, just because Biden is linked with Obama as his VP, that doesn't mean he IS Obama. For all his faults Obama was a young, relatively charismatic black man that could string more than two sentences together without making a major gaffe. I just don't see the black community racing out to give an elderly white guy with a history of troubling racial comments (like saying integrating schools would turn them into "Jungles"), and a few borderline racist positions, will receive the massive support they gave Obama. I think if anything Biden's support will be equal too or less than Hillary among blacks.
If you adjust the polling to the 2016 model, Trump is actually doing better against Biden than he did against Hillary. He is either tied or running a couple points behind. But you have to remember that is only the popular vote, Trump actually lost the popular vote to Hillary by 3 points and still won the election. So if he is tied or running a point or two behind Biden, he still should win easily.
The polls showed Hillary getting more votes, and that is exactly what happened.
BTW, one of my analyst pals got into the latest Suffolk, and sure enough, just as they (and at least two other pollsters, Morning Consult & one other that I forget) did in 2016, they were asking for “The youngest voter in the home.”
That’s a massive leftwing bias. Even if the voter is an R, younger voters are almost always more liberal.
Once again, why national polls on the presidential election are pointless. There is no national election. There are fifty state elections. Wish everyone would remember that simple fact.
I am skeptical. Go out and vote in November, folks.
JoMa
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