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The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%
reason.com ^ | 5-25-20 | Jacob Sullum

Posted on 05/25/2020 4:15:28 PM PDT by NoLibZone

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To: NoLibZone

doesn’t feel like much of a hoax when your father dies in a nursing home without family at his side...


61 posted on 05/25/2020 6:34:34 PM PDT by longfellowsmuse (last of the living nomads)
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To: NoLibZone

Wuhan labs will have to get to work on that paltry death rate for the next round they send our way.


62 posted on 05/25/2020 6:35:57 PM PDT by Bonemaker (invictus maneo)
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To: semimojo

The most recent CDC estimate is 0.27, less than three time.


63 posted on 05/25/2020 6:36:09 PM PDT by Kazan
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To: daniel1212
We have 100k Americans dead in 3 months with extreme mitigation measures being taken.

No amount of cherry picked statistics are going to change that.

64 posted on 05/25/2020 6:36:39 PM PDT by semimojo
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To: NoLibZone

“That rate is much lower than the numbers used in the horrifying projections that shaped the government response to the epidemic.”

Thanks to Drs. Deborah “social distancing” Scarf and Anthony “models” Faust.


65 posted on 05/25/2020 6:39:46 PM PDT by Bonemaker (invictus maneo)
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To: Kazan
The most recent CDC estimate is 0.27, less than three time.

OK. So it's 2.7x instead of 3x.

How should that change our response?

66 posted on 05/25/2020 6:39:46 PM PDT by semimojo
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To: longfellowsmuse

The hoax is how this was politicized.

The politicization lead to the nursing home deaths.

See Florida VS NY


67 posted on 05/25/2020 6:41:55 PM PDT by NoLibZone (We failed the single biggest test of our resolve. It's illegal to protest our government in public.)
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To: Skywise
[0.]3% is still 3x more than the average flu death rate of 1%.

I’ve read that 75% of people who get flu show no symptoms, and are not contagious. This lowers the flu death rate from 0.1% to 0.025%. Accordingly, the COVID death rate at 0.3% would be 12x. Even a rate of 0.2% would be 8x.

68 posted on 05/25/2020 6:43:24 PM PDT by The Truth Will Make You Free
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To: longfellowsmuse
Re: “doesn’t feel like much of a hoax when your father dies in a nursing home without family at his side...”

True, and if you are speaking about your father, I am very sorry for your loss.

On the other hand, influenza and the common cold kill close to the same number of elderly and infirm as COVID does, but flu and common cold deaths are not counted the same way.

69 posted on 05/25/2020 6:44:51 PM PDT by zeestephen
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To: The Truth Will Make You Free
I’ve read that 75% of people who get flu show no symptoms, and are not contagious.

Is there any reason to believe that's not also true of Covid-19?

70 posted on 05/25/2020 7:03:24 PM PDT by TigersEye (If you see me wearing a mask ... don't assume I'm wearing it for Covid-19.)
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To: Skywise

Washington state admitted to applying 5 gunshot deaths that apparently tested positive to the Covid-19 total.
The covid-19 first death in our county was a 56 yo female with leukemia who was under hospice care.


71 posted on 05/25/2020 7:09:52 PM PDT by griswold3 (Democratic Socialism is Slavery by Mob Rule)
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To: The Truth Will Make You Free

The flu stats already include those estimated presumed cases, so there’s no need to keep adding them in again and again.


72 posted on 05/25/2020 7:14:59 PM PDT by fluorescence
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To: semimojo

We don’t know if the 100K is a real number, and we don’t know if the mitigation added or subtracted to the number. We do know we destroyed the economy.


73 posted on 05/25/2020 7:15:32 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: fortheDeclaration
...we don’t know if the mitigation added or subtracted to the number.

Those of us with the power of reasoning do.

74 posted on 05/25/2020 7:18:30 PM PDT by semimojo
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To: FreedomVsControl

Welcome to Free Republic


75 posted on 05/25/2020 7:33:44 PM PDT by SisterK (its a spiritual war)
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To: NoLibZone

If the people in nursing homes, who are likely to have comorbidities, were removed from the over 65’s and considered separately, the risk to the remaining healthier members of that age group would be even lower.


76 posted on 05/25/2020 8:12:02 PM PDT by Socon-Econ (adical Islam,)
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To: tinyowl
The fatality rate for flu is about 1/3 to 1/4 COVID in all age groups except children < 14." 4 times worse certainly sucks ... and I think many of us expected it was going to settle around here in the 'nasty flu' area ...

See post 53. Est. COVID-19 deaths in the USA will have to be round 200,000 in order to compare with the Asian flu, yet even that would not provide a precedent for the extreme long-term all-ages Covid captivity.

77 posted on 05/25/2020 8:15:00 PM PDT by daniel1212 (Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: daniel1212
Asian flu death toll in US was approximately 69,800, so says Mr. Internet.

When you say ' Covid would have to reach 200K for Covid to compare' -> you mean based on population increase I assume?

78 posted on 05/25/2020 8:19:09 PM PDT by tinyowl (A is A)
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To: Jane Long

More telling: Florida deaths per million: 105
NY: 1,507


79 posted on 05/25/2020 8:19:18 PM PDT by daniel1212 (Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: tinyowl
1,507

What Internet? I linked to my sources:

1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)... The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States. (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html)

When you say ' Covid would have to reach 200K for Covid to compare' -> you mean based on population increase I assume?

Yes, meaning as a percentage, which is what is more revealing, not simply totals.

80 posted on 05/25/2020 8:24:16 PM PDT by daniel1212 (Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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