The CDC's New 'Best Estimate' Implies a COVID-19 Infection Fatality Rate Below 0.3%

reason.com ^ | 5-25-20 | Jacob Sullum

[Does so]

Cuomo says he was following Federal guidelines.

[Skywise]

No - it’s .1% it’s still 3x (actually .26% on other news sites so 2.6x more)

[John W]

Given what we now know for certain was happening directed by Obama earlier, dem involvement with chicoms in a further plot wouldn’t surprise me.

One question regarding these attempts at removing Trump. I understand certain totally ignorant rank and file liberal crazy dems think then Hillary wins.

Of course Pence would succeed Trump. So what have they gained?

[Drago]

“Regular Flu” Case Fatality Rates over the last 10 flu seasons range from 0.096%-0.176%, so COVID-19 is running about 2 times as deadly as the regular flu.

The .30% COVID-19 CFR is subject to change (lower) as more antibody testing is done and changes the “denominator”.

[IrishBrigade]

‘Given this I don’t see how what we did was an overreaction.’

you’ve really swallowed the proverbial hook, line, and sinker...really, think about it; here we have a corrupt and inefficient World Health Organization that finally saw an opportunity to do something really big, with a new strain of contagion, an epidemiologist’s wet dream...that they portrayed the contagion as Armegeddon is not the least bit surprising...and that authorities given carte blanche to exercise control will exercise that control to a bizarre degree is not the least bit surprising either...

[daniel1212]

Saw someone call it the Scaredemic, like it more then the dempandemic

covidcaptivity; covidphobia; hysteriavirus

[Mr. Jeeves]

Florida's policy of separating elderly people with COVID-19 from other vulnerable people they might otherwise have infected seems to have saved many lives. New York, by contrast, had a policy of returning COVID-19 patients to nursing homes.

Hey, MSM! A lesson in Republican vs. Democrat governance. Read it. Learn it. Know it. :)

[palmer]

Under 50 fatality rate is ONE HALF the overall CFR of flu?

You are comparing under-50 COVID to total flu. You need to compare under 50 COVID to under 50 flu. The fatality rate for flu is about 1/3 to 1/4 COVID in all age groups except children < 14. In children the CFR is similar, but children are rarely victims of either and are always very compromised to begin with.

[TigersEye]

... the .1% value was the commonly reported number across many news sites.

Across many news sites. I don't think you'll find that number on the CDC site. I looked there for nearly and hour and couldn't find any number for the mortality rate for influenza. Nor any other website associated with medicine or science.

[Skywise]

Ok - so what was it then?

[semimojo]

Under 0.3 would make it less than three times as deadly.

The IFR-S for the seasonal flu is .1%. That's three times.

Even if it was only 2.8 times should that change our public health response?

[tinyowl]

hey - yeah thanks - I got that ...

Me: "Now I get that's worse than the flu-for-under-50."

But thank you for the exact worse-ness.

You: "The fatality rate for flu is about 1/3 to 1/4 COVID in all age groups except children < 14."

4 times worse certainly sucks ... and I think many of us expected it was going to settle around here in the 'nasty flu' area ... and I knew CDC came out with yet another adjustment to their fear mongering numbers ... I just didn't realize CDC had dropped it into into same-order-of-magnitude levels. Surprised to hear the government say it. I guess the stats were getting overwhelming and they could only maintain the panic levels for so long without losing any semblance of relevance to the discussion.

[daniel1212]

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent. The CDC also estimates that 35 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus never develop symptoms. Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it

3% is still 3x more than the average flu death rate of 1%. I’m willing to bet this ends up closer to 2% when the final tallies are made. Assuming we actually get the truth out of this. This was absolutely a manufactured crisis.

The average average flu death rate is not what makes a meaningful comparison for a precedent, and for which we have the Asian flu pandemic of 1957-1958 resulted in a estimated 116,000 deaths in America (followed by the Hong Kong flu with about est. 100,000 American deaths in 1968–69), when at about 173,000,000, the population size in 57-58 was close to half of what it is now (330,541,000, rounded figures). Meaning that not only was the infection death rate much higher than for COVID-19, but there would have to be about 200,000 COVID-19 est. deaths to be comparable to the Asian flu. Yet that would simply make it basically equal as concerns the numbers of deaths in proportion to population size, but to justify the "CovidCaptivity," one would have to argue that the Asian flu should have necessitated a response like that to COVID-19. The Soviets would have favored that for sure.

The question then is, where was the COVID-19 comparative response in 57-58 in proportion to its threat? Yes, the 116,000 deaths in America to the Asian flu was for the whole year, yet even if we reach about 200,000 deaths (we pray not) for COVID-19 then that type of equality would still mean that the extremely restrictive all-ages long-term response to COVID-19 simply has no precedent in American history, except to a degree with the far more deadly (550,000 to 675,000 Americans, or 0.66% of the population) 1918 flu.

And yet we read that baseball teams played.

[daniel1212]

Pardon the length:

Does COVID-19 truly warrant a nationwide shutdown?

Daniel Hamilton

·

10h ago

Changed by Christ yet in need of more changing by HIM

No, and that has been made increasingly clear. The predicted dire need for hospital beds did not overall materialize, while most of those who were infected and died have been among those who are quarantined, especially elder care facilities which account for over 40% of US deaths.[1]

Up to about 80 percent of those infected with COVID-19 are estimated to be silent carriers, [2] meaning they show no symptoms (the New York City labor and delivery unit found 88 percent of infected patients had no symptoms, [3] while over 600 sailors on the coronavirus-stricken aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt tested positive, yet 60% of them had no symptoms such as fever, fatigue, or cough,[4]and in four U.S. state prisons nearly 3,300 inmates test positive for coronavirus yet 96% were without symptoms[5] and or recover without medical care[6]) Which means that the infected fatality rate is much lower than the misleading case fatality rate that is usually quoted.

Meanwhile the vast majority of those who die because it are 65 years-old or more[7] and with almost 25% of all documented Covid-assigned (which does not mean the subject was tested for Covid) fatalities in the US (91,976 as of May 18 at 8:49PM EDT) are from New York (28,480)[8] and according to one report 54% of all U.S. deaths were in the 100 counties in or within 100 miles of NYC.

And the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that almost 90 percent of U.S. coronavirus patients who have been hospitalized had underlying health problems, or comorbidities.[9]

And which relates to the issue of inaccurate fatality numbers, partly due to the problem of determining the actual cause of death and the CDC guidelines which allow for reporting COVID-19 as the “probable” or “presumed” cause on the death certificate if the certifier even suspects COVID-19 was likely (e.g., the circumstances were compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), the cause.[10] Which resulted in NYC suddenly adding 3,700 additional people to its death count[11](also, Federal legislation pays hospitals higher Medicare rates for COVID-19 patients and treatment[12]), leading to charges of over-counting[13][14] while Pennsylvania removed some after coroner reports.[15] Later, Colorado’s Health Department revised their official coronavirus death count from 1,150 as of May 15 downward to 878 (a reduction of 23.7 percent) and created two separate distinguishing categories, one of people who died directly because of the virus and another of people who had COVID-19 at their time of death but died of other causes that may not be attributable to the virus.[16][17] However, some others believe the problem is more that of under-counting. [18]

Also, another study finds that the risk of coronavirus spreading in schools is 'extremely low'.[19]

And while states continue to parrot the “stay sheltered” mantra, research shows that sunlight destroys virus quickly[20], and even a Department of Homeland Security official affirmed that increasing temperatures, humidity and sunlight are detrimental to coronavirus saliva droplets on surfaces and in the air.[21] Also, over 600 doctors signed onto a letter sent to President Trump favoring an end the "national shutdown," referring to it as being a "mass casualty incident" with "exponentially growing health consequences."[22]

Yet miles upon miles of parks and public waterfronts are shutdown, and for too long NY put infected persons in nursing homes[23] (and as of April 26, about 40 percent of COVID-19 deaths were in the state of New York alone. New Jersey was in second place, with nearly 5,900[24]yet the death rate is uncritically employed to justify nationwide lockdowns) while in states such as Illinois law-breaking prisoners were released from their “quarantine” - including some “high risk” sexual offenders[25] and some convicted of murder - [26] and almost a third of county jail inmates have been released from facilities during the coronavirus pandemic.[27] Meanwhile over 2,000[28] of the most vulnerable souls a day in “quarantine” - their mother’s womb - are murdered, many by the same persons claim to be for protecting the vulnerable.

Moreover, the extremely restrictive all-ages long-term response to COVID-19 simply has no precedent in American history except (to a degree) that of the 1918 flu (in which baseball was still played) which up t 675,000 deaths are attributed.[29]

The Asian flu pandemic of 1957-1958 resulted in a estimated 116,000 deaths in America[30] (followed by the Hong Kong flu with about est. 100,000 American deaths in 1968–69), when at about 173,000,000, the population size in 57-58 was close to half of what it is now (330,541,000, rounded figures).

Meaning that not only was the infection death rate much higher than for COVID-19, but there would have to be about 200,000 COVID-19 est. deaths to be comparable to the Asian flu as regards percentaged of population. Yet that would simply make it basically equal as concerns the numbers of deaths in proportion to population size, but to justify the "CovidCaptivity," one would have to argue that the Asian flu should have necessitated a response like that to COVID-19. The Soviets would have favored that for sure.

The question then is, where was the COVID-19 comparative response in 57-58 in proportion to its threat? Yes, the 116,000 deaths in America to the Asian flu was for the whole year, yet even if we reach about 200,000 deaths (we pray not) for COVID-19 then that type of equality would still mean that the extremely restrictive all-ages long-term response to COVID-19 simply has no precedent in American history, except to a degree with the far more deadly (550,000 to 675,000 Americans, or 0.66% of the population) 1918 flu.

And during which medics found that severely ill flu patients nursed outdoors recovered better than those treated indoors. A combination of fresh air and sunlight seems to have prevented deaths among patients; and infections among medical staff. [31]

Finally, last but not least, the long-term cost for the questionable[32]“cure” - as meaning preventing deaths via the stay-sheltered COVID captivity - will be more costly in lives and money including psychosocial consequences[33] than a more moderate response that would allow for a faster rise in cases but a better decrease and overall a more healthy populace in the long run. [34][35][36]

Economically, estimates project total losses in state and local revenue of up to 45 percent, effecting 90,000 nonfederal-government entities that provide and pay for most of the government services that Americans receive.[37] And while states look to the Federal government to bail them out, the additional costs and declining revenues stemming from Covid-19 are expected to produce a 2020 budget deficit in excess of $4.2 trillion.[38]

And most of government income comes from taxes, via businesses and those who are employed ( income taxes, payroll taxes, and corporate taxes)[39], yet businesses are failing across America, and in New York alone the governor stated that small businesses constitute “90 percent of New York's businesses” and “more than 100,000 have shut permanently since the pandemic hit.”[40]

Moreover (as of May 20), with 2.43 million in America filing for an unemployment,[41] the rate is at least 20%.[42] Also, according to one meta-analysis of 42 studies involving 20 million people, the risk of death increases 63 percent when one loses their job, and that for every one percentage point increase in the unemployment rate, there are 37,000 deaths, mainly from heart attacks, but another 1,000 from suicides and another 650 from homicides.[43]

And as concerns just suicide, we have reports such as “Calls to suicide and help hotline in Los Angeles increase 8,000% due to coronavirus,”[44] and “Doctors at John Muir Medical Center in Walnut Creek say they have seen more deaths by suicide during this quarantine period than deaths from the COVID-19 virus,”[45]

Yet while we seek to save lives, 7,000 Americans die every day in the US from a wide range of causes [46] - besides over 2,000 a day being slain in the “quarantine” of their mother’s womb[47] - my prayer is that all sinners will come to repentance and faith in the risen Lord Jesus and be baptized and follow Him.

Hope this helps. PeaceByJesus

Footnotes

[1] STAGGERING: Nursing Home Residents Account for a Whopping 43.4% of COVID-19 Deaths, Even Though They're Less Than 1% of the U.S. Population

[2] Coronavirus Outbreak: Daily Updates

[3] https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/04/20/we-tested-all-our-patients-covid-19-found-lots-asymptomatic-cases/

[4] Coronavirus clue? Most cases aboard U.S. aircraft carrier are symptom-free

[5] In four U.S. state prisons, nearly 3,300 inmates test positive for coronavirus -- 96% without symptoms

[6] The basics on the coronavirus: What you need to know as the US becomes the new epicenter of COVID-19

[7] CDC: 80 percent of US coronavirus deaths are people 65 and older

[8] New York Coronavirus: 361,266 Cases and 28,480 Deaths (COVID-19 )

[9] Hospitalization Rates and Characteristics of Patients Hospitalized ...

[10] Technical Notes: Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19)

[11] N.Y.C. Death Toll Soars Past 10,000 in Revised Virus Count

[12] Fact check: Hospitals get paid more if patients listed as COVID-19, on ventilators

[13] As US coronavirus death toll mounts, so does the belief by some that it is exaggerated

[14] Death Toll Conspiracy: Why Conservative Media—And Soon, Possibly Trump—Are Doubting Coronavirus Mortality Figures

[15] Pennsylvania Takes Hundreds of 'Probable' COVID Deaths Off Books After Coroners Come Forward

[16] Colorado's state health dept. revises method of counting COVID-19 deaths; 878 deaths as of Friday - KRDO

[17] Case data | Colorado COVID-19 Updates

[18] How are COVID-19 deaths counted?

[19] Risk of coronavirus spreading in schools is 'extremely low' study finds 

[20] https://www.aol.com/article/news/2020/04/17/sunlight-destroys-virus-quickly-new-govt-tests-find-but-experts-say-pandemic-could-last-through-summer

[21] https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2020-04-23/us-official-sunlight-heat-humidity-could-help-kill-coronavirus

[22] Doctors raise alarm about health effects of continued coronavirus shutdown: 'Mass casualty incident'

[23] How States Turned Nursing Homes Into ‘Slaughter Houses’ By Forcing Them to Admit Discharged COVID-19 Patients | Jon Miltimore

[24] New York vs. Texas: NY Has Nearly 50 Times More COVID-19 Deaths Per Capita | Ryan McMaken

[25] CA Gov. Frees Seven ‘High Risk’ Sex Offenders, Orders Beaches Closed, All In Same County - LaCorte News

[26] Almost 4,000 inmates released from IL prisons, 64 convicted of murder

[27] One Third Of Jail Inmates Nationwide Set Free in Unprecedented Coronavirus Jailbreak - Big League Politics

[28] Induced Abortion in the United States

[29] Spanish flu - Wikipedia

[30] 1957-1958 Pandemic (H2N2 virus)

[31] Coronavirus and the Sun: a Lesson from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic

[32] Analysis raises questions about coronavirus shutdown's effectiveness

[33] Years of life lost due to the psychosocial consequences of COVID19 mitigation strategies based on Swiss data

[34] Stanford University doctor: 'You are mistaken' if you think coronavirus lockdowns provide safety

[35] Thanks to COVID-19, Social Security’s day of reckoning may be even closer than we thought

[36] Workers opt for unemployment as benefits exceed job pay

[37] America’s Next Crisis Is Already Here

[38] Coronavirus Budget Projections | Manhattan Institute

[39] Who Really Pays Uncle Sam's Bills?

[40] Coronavirus Forces 100K NY Small Businesses To Close Permanently

[41] United States Initial Jobless Claims

[42] Don’t Be Fooled By Official Unemployment Rate Of 14.7%; The Real Figure Is Even Scarier

[43] Studies: The Shutdown Is NOT Lives Vs. Dollars, It’s Lives Vs. Lives - The Revolutionary Act

[44] Calls to suicide and help hotline in Los Angeles increase 8,000% due to coronavirus

[45] Suicides on the rise amid stay-at-home order, Bay Area medical professionals say

[46] QuickStats: Average Daily Number of Deaths, by Month — United States,

[47] Induced Abortion in the United States

[semimojo]

...we have a corrupt and inefficient World Health Organization that finally saw an opportunity to do something really big, with a new strain of contagion, an epidemiologist’s wet dream...

Sorry, don't do global conspiracy theories.

[daniel1212]

yet liberal state like NY/NJ/Mass is pushing up the rates. Here are some mortality rates calculated just this afternoon: NY 7.8% Average Median Age 39 NJ 7.1% AMA 40 Ma 6.9% AMA 39.4 PA 7.2% AMA 40.8 Fl 4.3% AMA 42.2 Tx 2.7% La 7.8% (red state outlier) Ga 4.2%

Those must be case fatality rates (CFR), which means those who were classed as infected, and since most testing or diagnosis was usually of those who were sick enough to qualify for such, then it means these cases were those most likely to die. Yet it is est. that estimated that about 80% of those infected with Covid-19 experience a mild case [WHO said the like] – about as serious as a regular cold – and recover without needing any special treatment. When these are factored in, you have the infected fatality rate, which is much lower.

World Meters states ,

Considering that a large number of cases are asymptomatic (or present with very mild symptoms) and that testing has not been performed on the entire population, only a fraction of the SARS-CoV-2 infected population is detected, confirmed through a laboratory test, and officially reported as a COVID-19 case. The number of actual cases is therefore estimated to be at several multiples above the number of reported cases. The number of deaths also tends to be underestimated, as some patients are not hospitalized and not tested...Actual Cases (1.7 million: 10 times the number of confirmed cases)...Actual Deaths (23,000: almost twice the number of confirmed deaths)

[Jane Long]

[TigersEye]

How can I tell you what it was when I couldn’t find the number on any medical/government/research website?

That was pretty much my point. The only place you can find a mortality rate for influenza is on news sites.
And they never source that information.

[Drago]

I use the figure of “15x reported cases” or 5%-7% of the total population (have been infected...the “denominator”)...using those #’s you still get a CFR of 0.19% for CA, 0.32% for the USA minus N.Y. & N.J., and 0.49% for the USA as a whole.

[zeestephen]

Bottom Line...

Almost 5% of the USA population has been tested for COVID infection or COVID antibodies.

In spite of that, the CDC still does NOT publicly estimate the TOTAL number of Americans who have been infected with the virus.

If CDC released THAT number, we could do our own calculations.

My best estimate - 10% of the USA population has been infected.

If my estimate is correct, then COVID is only slightly more deadly than seasonal influenza - but just for the elderly and the infirm.

In addition, if the CDC counted influenza deaths with the same fraudulent method they use to count COVID deaths, influenza deaths would be at least 100,000 EVERY year.