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To: Grandpa Drudge

Some caution is in order here: a disease outbreak is not considered controlled until 2 incubation periods have passed without any new cases. For Covid-19, that means 4 weeks must pass, since the incubation period is 2-14 days. There are still over 20,000 new cases per day in the US.

Lifting the lock-downs before robust contact tracing and testing programs are in place can cause the virus to pick right back up on its original spread.


3 posted on 05/24/2020 8:11:26 PM PDT by exDemMom (Current visual of the hole the US continues to dig itself into: http://www.usdebtclock.org)
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To: exDemMom

No, two periods is 10 days. The incubation period is 2-14 days but the average is 4.6-5 days. You use the average for using r0 and waves.


4 posted on 05/24/2020 8:13:56 PM PDT by rb22982
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To: exDemMom

We’ve never needed any of that before.

Sounds like you’re a “never let a crisis go to waste” type of guy.


5 posted on 05/24/2020 8:23:01 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Who could have guessed the Communist Revolution would arrive disguised as the common cold?)
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To: exDemMom

I’m still waiting to see the scientific reasoning behind the business lock-downs. Shutting down a book store or a pawn shop saves how many lives, exactly? How many do we sacrifice by keeping the 7-Eleven open? Based on what data, what science, what simplifying assumptions?

How many are lost by closing things down? I encountered someone the other day clinging to a lamppost and begging for the police to come, completely overwhelmed by the isolation and the fear. Is it worth it?


6 posted on 05/24/2020 8:23:52 PM PDT by rightwingcrazy (;-,)
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To: exDemMom

Hmm... You must not have noticed the kryptonite in my previous post. The pandemic has been under control in the USA for over three weeks now.

And you seem to think contact tracing is a good idea?


7 posted on 05/24/2020 8:24:37 PM PDT by Grandpa Drudge (Just an old man, desperate to preserve our great country for my grandchildren.)
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To: exDemMom

Here’s the thing.

The American people were told that we needed a 15 day, oops 30 day lockdown to “slow the spread” so that hospitals would not be overwhelmed. That was the deal that most people accepted, right or wrong.

Hospitals have not been overwhelmed.

The deal was never to contain, control, or otherwise attempt to reduce the total number of infections.

We simply cannot afford any more of this lockdown. It must end, and the public health apparatus must be directed at making that work.

It may involve social distancing, mask wearing, improved hygiene, and protecting the most vulnerable along with whatever other NPI’s are effective, but the “Clampdown” must end. Now.

If the public health folks don’t get ahead of this, people will simply end it themselves. And that could well result in more sickness than we would otherwise have to endure.


8 posted on 05/24/2020 8:26:18 PM PDT by absalom01 (You should do your duty in all things. You cannot do more, and you should never wish to do less.)
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To: exDemMom

This is not a “Zombie” disease where everyone who is touched, dies. South Korea did statistical sampling with antibody testing three months ago and proved a death rate of 0.6% from the infected population.

We were told to “flatted the curve,” which means just about everyone will get it, but more slowly, allowing hospitals to treat within what they can handle. This was never, “Stop Until No One Gets It.”

Let people die a normal death. Less than 0.6% will do so, anyway. People are dying and are being put into bankruptcy because of fear this is a “Zombie-level” extinction event.

I want the virus to spread and so does the government. That’s the whole reason for “flattening the curve.”


10 posted on 05/24/2020 8:37:17 PM PDT by ConservativeMind (Trump: Befuddling Democrats, Republicans, and the Media for the benefit of the US and all mankind.)
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To: exDemMom
surprise for you, this virus is here among us, just like seasonal flu and the common cold....its not going to disappear....

there will not be weeks without a covid positive somewhere....

get used to it....

OPEN THE COUNTRY!

11 posted on 05/24/2020 8:39:12 PM PDT by cherry
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To: exDemMom

Continued lockdown will cause more deaths than the virus will.

The original stated purpose of the lockdown was to avoid overloading the hospital system. That is not an issue any more, and was never an issue.

We need to open now, and just accept any uptick in cases. But, looking at Georgia, we are unlikely to see any major uptick.


22 posted on 05/25/2020 12:32:59 AM PDT by SauronOfMordor (A Leftist can't enjoy life unless they are controlling, hurting, or destroying others)
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To: exDemMom

Except lifting the lockdowns hasn’t caused the increase and we are over 4 weeks out in florida and georgia. It is unrealistic to expect zero new cases and looking at new cases alone is more a measure of the tests being done than the new infection rate. Please feel free to hide in your basement until there are no new cases. With an infection that will settle into an endemic rate that should be never. Leave the rest of us alone to go on with life

You fearmngers keep moving the goalposts. First it was flatten the curve and keep the healthcare system from being overwhelmed. The healthcare system was not overwhelmed and many hospitals sit empty and are furloughing or terminating employees (and likely the lockdown had nothing to do with that). With the stated goal reached now you want no new cases. Way to.move the goalposts WAY out. Meanwhile more lives are destroyed by the economic and social impacts of this policy than will ever get the virus. I used to think those peddling fear were misguided but well meaning. At this point you all just disgust me.


27 posted on 05/25/2020 2:24:28 AM PDT by Mom MD
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To: exDemMom

Given that the CDC thinks the mortality is 0.26%. I guess it’s a risk we will all have to take. Contact tracing? No thanks.

What exactly do you do for a living? You are nothing but a fear monger with a keyboard repeating talking point. Perhaps I have given you too much credit. You tout your research credentials. What, exactly, are they?


29 posted on 05/25/2020 4:24:00 AM PDT by gas_dr (Trial lawyers AND POLITICIANS are Endangering Every Patient in America: INCLUDING THEIR LIBERTIES)
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To: exDemMom

I count 9 different posters who have presented you with actual data and you tell us you have a superior handle on research. I will await your response to them and your credentials. However, if my suspicions are correct, we will hear either nothing (your safest choice) or manufactured BS from your less than fertile mind.


30 posted on 05/25/2020 4:28:58 AM PDT by gas_dr (Trial lawyers AND POLITICIANS are Endangering Every Patient in America: INCLUDING THEIR LIBERTIES)
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To: exDemMom

“Some caution is in order here: a disease outbreak is not considered controlled until 2 incubation periods have passed without any new cases.”

B.S. A disease outbreak is sufficiently controlled when the healthcare system is not overwhelmed by it, death rates are coming down, and the medical care knowledge of managing it is maturing with increased success - all of which we have obtained. The rest of the course of it will run itself out, lock downs or no lock downs.

“Lifting the lock-downs before robust contact tracing and testing programs are in place can cause the virus to pick right back up on its original spread.”

Is not happening without “robust” contact tracing in place.

Now then, when MIGHT the Wuhan Virus pick back up again - lock downs or no lock downs, contact tracing or no contact tracing? In the fall. Then again the corona viruses do not behave so much seasonally as do the influenza viruses.


39 posted on 05/25/2020 6:26:57 AM PDT by Wuli (Get)
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