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Give me liberty or give me a mild fever
American Thinking ^ | April 12, 2020 | James Arlandson

Posted on 04/12/2020 8:12:15 AM PDT by fwdude

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To: Liberal Anti Venom; gas_dr; mdmathis6; MAGAthon; daniel1212; Oatka; Right Brother; ...
These are your words:

"So, I propose the following wager: Which ever one of is wrong when all is said and done, owes the other one $100. In other words, if this proves to be nothing more than a new strain of the flu, no more virulent and lethal than the “normal” flu, you lose. If it proves to be the catastrophic pandemic you believe it to be, I lose."


Beginning with: “nothing more than a new strain of the flu”:

Influenza, commonly known as "the flu", is an infectious disease caused by an influenza virus of the family Orthomyxoviridae. Orthomyxoviridae belongs to the phylum Negarnaviricota, which includes all negative-sense single-stranded RNA viruses except Hepatitis delta virus. It is divided into the subphyla Haploviricotina and Polyploviricotina. The name comes from the Latin nega ('negative') plus RNA and -viricota, the suffix for a virus phylum.
SARS CoV-2 or COVID-19 as it is popularly known, is caused by a virus of the family Coronaviridae: a positive-sense, single-stranded RNA virus. Coronaviridae belongs to the phylum Incertae sedis, which simply indicates that it’s taxonomy at the Phylum level is not certain…
But it’s not the flu, Bro.

Moving on to: “no more virulent and lethal than the “normal” flu”

The “normal flu” mortality over the past decade ranges from a CDC estimate of 12,000 in 2015-2016 to a CDC estimate of 61,000 for the record-breaking 2017-2018 flu season.
I believe it would be fair to define “normal flu” mortality as the average of the CDC estimates for the preceding decade. If you disagree, please suggest an alternative definition and your rationale for preferring it over this one.

The CDC estimates for 2009 – 2010 include the H1N1 (swine flu) epidemic of 2009, but I’m okay with including them in the average if you are.

The result of averaging 2009 -2019 CDC estimates for “normal flu” mortality comes out to 39,085 deaths attributed to influenza. I’m suggesting that we use this (probably inflated) number as our baseline.

How much more deadly would this virus have to be for you to admit that it’s not the flu?

Can we at least admit that 40,565 is a larger number than 39,085? Today is April 19th.

And finally: “If it proves to be the catastrophic pandemic you believe it to be, I lose.”

I don’t believe I’ve ever suggested “catastrophic”… If you, or any of the other FluBro’s I’ve pinged can find an example of my using that term, I’ll match your contribution. But anyway, we can go with “Pandemic” another word that has a fixed definition, unsusceptible to debate.

From Webster: “A pandemic is a kind of epidemic; one which has spread across a wider geographic range than an epidemic, and which has affected a significant portion of the population.” And “There have been a number of pandemics since the beginning of the 20th century: the H1N1 pandemic of 2009, the Spanish flu of 1918/19 (which did not originate in Spain), as well as flu pandemics in 1957 and 1968, and now the COVID-19 pandemic of 2019/20.”

I’d say you owe Free Republic $100.00, but maybe the FluBro’s can come up with a reason you should crawfish… or at the very least make some insane accusations about “fearpering” and “hiding under the bed”.
81 posted on 04/20/2020 6:00:17 AM PDT by Hugh the Scot ("Jesus was a fundamentalist".- BipolarBob)
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To: Hugh the Scot

82 posted on 04/20/2020 6:20:59 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: DannyTN

I’m actually not trying to “win” against the FluBro’s.

I’m (pointlessly) trying to demonstrate that reasonable people can disagree.

As such, I disagree that we should abandon the accepted definitions of words that have long and faithfully served their purpose just because it isn’t a particularly effective tactic in a monkey-shit-fight.


83 posted on 04/20/2020 6:40:15 AM PDT by Hugh the Scot ("We are domed!" - V V Camp Enari 67-68)
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To: Hugh the Scot
"As such, I disagree that we should abandon the accepted definitions of words that have long and faithfully served their purpose just because it isn’t a particularly effective tactic in a monkey-shit-fight."

Well in that case, the flubro's lost their "money-shit-fight" the moment they started.

They should pay up.

84 posted on 04/20/2020 6:44:22 AM PDT by DannyTN
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To: Hugh the Scot
Wow, this thread is still going on?

"So, I propose the following wager: Which ever one of is wrong when all is said and done, owes the other one $100. In other words, if this proves to be nothing more than a new strain of the flu, no more virulent and lethal than the “normal” flu, you lose. If it proves to be the catastrophic pandemic you believe it to be, I lose."

Beginning with: “nothing more than a new strain of the flu”:

Moving on to: “no more virulent and lethal than the “normal” flu”

COVID-19 is not the flu, as you point out, and is more lethal to the elderly and or those who certain pre-existing comorbidities, but not as lethal to the population overall as certain strains of the flu have been (and that Covid has reduced the case count for the flu this year may be possible). The 1918 flu can be invoked on that account.

But the real issue that I see is whether the extreme long-term restrictions to all ages are warranted (I argue they are too extreme in scope) as outweighing the profound long-term negative effects of the restrictions, in the light of past national heath crises, as that of the Asian flu of 1957–58 for which 116,000 American deaths are assigned (among about half of today's total US population). As well as the Hong Kong flu of 1968–69 with its 100,000 American deaths.

And where was the proportionate response to even 3 years ago, when according to estimates, between 61,000 to 80,000 Americans died during the 2017-2018 season, the latter being the highest death toll in 40 years. During that 2017-2018 season, the percentage of deaths attributed to pneumonia and influenza (P&I) was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks. Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for four consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018, (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season-2017-2018.htm) with older Americans dying at a rate of 169 Americans a day, or seven people per hour. (https://www.aarp.org/health/conditions-treatments/info-2018/older-flu-deaths-rising.html

Then there is the issue of the Covid fatality rate being much smaller if estimates of the millions of undocumented infections are anywhere close to reality.

However, that this is a virulent and dangerous virus (though i believe there is more than one strain of it and degrees of strength) is not to be denied, though its lethality is overall to a certain class.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes#

85 posted on 04/20/2020 9:12:28 AM PDT by daniel1212 ( Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + follow Him)
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To: proust
Give me liberty or kill my grandparents.
Shoot, thought I’d get a rational discussion

You shouldn't be disappointed, proust. An irrational premise (i.e., a false choice) often results in an irrational discussion.

86 posted on 04/20/2020 9:17:56 AM PDT by glennaro
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To: Hugh the Scot

I am more than willing to give FR $100 in addition to what I already contribute every month and will do so once I am proven wrong.

Regarding a previous response to me which appears to have been deleted, I am also willing to sit and break bread with anybody that has contracted the COVID-19 virus. Regardless as to what statistics or evidence you post, it has not convinced me this is nothing more than a new strain of the flu.

In my opinion it appears there are far more bed-wetters on FR than true Patriots. You are all so worried about what the gubmint, globalists, UN and NGOs tell you than what common sense tells you. These are the very same organizations and individuals you rail against on a daily basis, but now you lay down at their feet like frightened children.

Lord have mercy. You truly lack the courage of your convictions and should be ashamed of yourselves.

No doubt this post will be deleted, but you heard it here first and I am not ashamed or by humbled by FR’s censorship gurus.

Be well, God bless and continue with the good fight.

Best regards,
LAV


87 posted on 04/26/2020 12:22:43 AM PDT by Liberal Anti Venom (In a free society, the last refuge of a moron is tyranny. ~Jeremy Egerer~)
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To: shanover

It’s not that divided.

This will end. It may become a normal to deal with.

I know one thing, China is on everybody’s shit list.


88 posted on 04/26/2020 12:44:58 AM PDT by eyedigress (I don't need Navy Commanders freaking out. Weak)
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To: Liberal Anti Venom

Clearly I have not given sufficient consideration to the weight of “your opinion” in light of the easily proven facts of the disease.

You can always refer to your own posting if the terms of the wager that you offered remain unclear.

As to the underhanded, chicken-shite insults that you’ve peppered your post with, allow me to clear something up for you: I’m out in the world every day since this thing erupted. Not missed a day of work, or a solitary meal. I’ve studied all of the information that I can find in order to continue conducting my business and exercising my liberty without being suicidally stupid. I continue to eat the food from my favorite Italian restaurant, even though they have to walk it to my truck. I still tip 30% for the folks who do the carrying.

It’s quite telling that you, and the other Flubros can’t support your own posturing without resorting to cowardly internet ad-hominem.

Here’s the news: Not everyone who doesn’t agree with you is a bed-wetting pansy, or a Democrat, or even a dupe of the media.

This virus is killing people, and at a rate which far exceeds the “regular flu”.

If you want to disprove that fact, or the fact that it isn’t “flu” at all; please feel free to do so.

Also, it is certainly pandemic, by any definition of that word. Again, if you disagree, I’ll be happy to see your evidence.

Present it, or step off. I don’t truly give a damn if you want to crawfish on your wager. It doesn’t reflect on me at all, but you can keep your insults and your fake piety for someone who does.


89 posted on 04/26/2020 10:29:06 AM PDT by Hugh the Scot ("We are domed!" - V V Camp Enari 67-68)
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To: Hugh the Scot

Yo, douchebag! I don’t want or need you to give “sufficient consideration” to my opinion. It’s just my opinion, and I am entitled to it, Scotty. Now piss off and go hide under your bed. We will call you when it’s safe to come out of hiding.

What a turd.


90 posted on 04/27/2020 9:30:35 AM PDT by Liberal Anti Venom (In a free society, the last refuge of a moron is tyranny. ~Jeremy Egerer~)
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To: Liberal Anti Venom

Now THERE’S a lucid and coherent defense of your position...

Got called out on your bullcrap and didn’t like it, eh?

Spray flecks of spittle on your computer screen and scream into the empty void of your life. I don’t mind.

Maybe you think your insults and tears of rage are having some affect... You’re wrong, I’m a believer in liberty.

If you want to give yourself an aneurysm because you have no facts to present; brother, you do you.


91 posted on 04/27/2020 10:08:56 AM PDT by Hugh the Scot ("We are domed!" - V V Camp Enari 67-68)
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To: metmom
If you could guarantee nothing worse than a mild fever, you would have a point.

There are no guarantees in life. Just trade-offs.

92 posted on 04/27/2020 10:19:55 AM PDT by gogeo (It isn't just time to open America up again: It's time to be America again.)
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To: proust
A society should be judged by how it treats its most vulnerable. We’ve already failed our unborn.

Oh, stop.

93 posted on 04/27/2020 10:23:35 AM PDT by gogeo (It isn't just time to open America up again: It's time to be America again.)
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To: Hugh the Scot

Yo, Bing. You’re still here? Thought I told you to go hide under your bed, you little panty waste.


94 posted on 04/27/2020 10:32:39 PM PDT by Liberal Anti Venom (In a free society, the last refuge of a moron is tyranny. ~Jeremy Egerer~)
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To: Liberal Anti Venom

You’re embarrassing yourself, internet tough guy.


95 posted on 04/28/2020 1:43:48 AM PDT by Hugh the Scot ("We are domed!" - V V Camp Enari 67-68)
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To: Hugh the Scot

Geezus H. Crimmany! You again? Thought I told you to go hide under your bed. Go away, Scotty. I’m done with you, but if you come back will taunt you again, you fat, overweight and out of shape queer.


96 posted on 04/28/2020 8:33:46 AM PDT by Liberal Anti Venom (In a free society, the last refuge of a moron is tyranny. ~Jeremy Egerer~)
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To: Liberal Anti Venom

You’re a gutless worm. You talk big stuff about how you want to make a wager, then you crawfish... You spew insults like there’s money in it, but you’re far too weak-minded to support your own arguments.

Projection and lies are all you have. You’ve proven yourself illiterate, cowardly and weak to go along with your inherent dishonesty.

Your only hope is that everyone who ever has a shred of respect for you has abandoned this thread so they don’t have to witness your self-debasement...

But I’m not your friend. I’ll keep kicking you as long as you keep coming back, Liar.


97 posted on 04/28/2020 9:04:38 AM PDT by Hugh the Scot ("We are domed!" - V V Camp Enari 67-68)
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To: Hugh the Scot

Keep kicking me, Beatch. Loving every moment of it.


98 posted on 04/28/2020 7:30:46 PM PDT by Liberal Anti Venom (In a free society, the last refuge of a moron is tyranny. ~Jeremy Egerer~)
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To: Hugh the Scot

Go back into your mom’s basement and have her heat up another Hot Pocket.


99 posted on 04/28/2020 7:46:19 PM PDT by Liberal Anti Venom (In a free society, the last refuge of a moron is tyranny. ~Jeremy Egerer~)
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To: Liberal Anti Venom
"Loving every moment of it."


Who knew that being a homosexual prostitute would make you so happy?
100 posted on 04/29/2020 4:00:57 AM PDT by Hugh the Scot ("We are domed!" - V V Camp Enari 67-68)
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