[Mrs. Don-o]

Take a deep breath, and dig in.

I guess I should be glad that it is still legal to think. I have a feeling Mr. Ferrara is exactly right.

The whole flippin' world has been "had".

Will comment more tomorrow.

[stockpirate]

Bump

[DarthVader]

Their goose is cooked as they have been caught in the Chinese web of deceit and treachery!!

[Drago]

Totally depends on how many people have COVID-19 currently and have had COVID in the recent past and gotten over it w/o being “officially counted”.

If about 11 million Americans currently have or have had COVID in the past then COVID-19 is about as bad a as a “really bad” regular flu year. (0.14% fatality rate). If 15 million have had it then COVID is about the same as a “regular” flu year (0.10% fatality rate).

If only 5 million Americans have or have had it, then COVID is 3x as deadly as regular flu.

I have heard several doctors “guesstimate” that 3%-5% of the total population are undetected COVID cases/past cases, that would mean 10 - 17 million people.

Not enough testing to know the “denominator”...need more testing for current cases and lots of serology/antibody tests for “recovered” case detection too!

[kalee]

For later

[DoodleBob]

I would like to begin this much shorter article

Let me just say, up-front, that I don't believe Christopher Ferrara is capable of concise writing. Even when I agree with his premise, I have to wade through 2500+ words to get to the point. THIS tome clocked in at 2,772 words. Find an editor, Chrissy.

All over the country people are being fined or arrested and jailed for violating suddenly imposed restrictions on their every movement and gathering,

Fair enough, but a few hundred words later, Mr. Ferrara says

The following are the nine states that have refused to impose lockdowns.

So, which one is it, Christopher Robin? Is this an all over the country thang, or are there pockets that "have seceded from the United States of Mitigation"? Again...Chris...the word for which you're seeking is EDITOR.

I agree with Mr. Ferrara that the Numbers don’t line up. However, it's Chris' numbers that don't line up. For example:

It is becoming clearer with each passing day that the death toll from the Wuhan virus is not rising exponentially as the “experts” predicted but only modestly in some places while leveling off or even declining almost everywhere else in the country

Let's take this bit by bit. First...I agree that the 'it's exponential, bro' hysterics are as bad as the flubros. Virus cases and deaths actually follow a logistic pattern.

However, if you plot the daily cumulative fatality count for the US from March 5 to today, and fit an exponential curve to the data without time-series adjustments, you get y = 7.231e^0.2259x; R² = 0.9941. So, for now, actually, it IS following an exponential path thought I will say, the last few days cumulative counts are below the fitted curve.

As for the second part of the above rant - while leveling off or even declining almost everywhere else in the country - that's simply not true. Actual, real numbers are your friend. Go to GitHub and get the daily case data: over the past five days, the percentage growth of fatalities by state was 3%+ for at least 35 states by day, and up to 44 states for some days. If I crank up the percentage threshold to 10%, the fewest number of states with such as gain falls to 24 - certainly not a majority but hardly almost everywhere.

By the end of this 2700+ word diatribe, where Chris certainly commits a few venial sins ("Scarf Lady"...really, Chrissy?) not to mention a heaping helping of pride, Chris says:

As the real data emerge

The thing about this whole article, is that Ferrera has some legitimate points. But man o man o manischewitz, after tedious, sloppy writing, ad hominem attacks, factual inaccuracies, and inconsistencies, with friends like Chris...

[tbw2]

Feds classifying all coronavirus patient deaths as ‘COVID-19’ deaths, regardless of cause
https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/feds-classify-all-coronavirus-patient-deaths-as-covid-19-deaths/

[TBP]

The left wants people to die.

[Cronos]

There is a Taoist story:

The Emperor called his physician and wanted to reward him as the greatest physician in all the empire.

he said “I am the youngest of three brothers and the least effective doctor. My middle brother only visits the person once, writes a prescription and the person is well, my oldest brother doesn’t leave the house, just identifies preventive measures and no one knows his name”

The point is - the numbers are lower BECAUSE we implemented preventive measures

We can see it by comparing Denmark and Sweden - Denmark has 5 million people in a far more compressed area. Sweden has 10 million people - out of which about 5 million are in the concentrated area in the south - the Oresund region.

Denmark implemented strict quarantine and social distancing and closing down restaurants etc. Sweden did not.

Today, 9th April,
Denmark has 5402 cases and 218 deaths
Sweden has 8419 cases and 687 deaths

Sweden has three times more deaths.

I think this does show that social distancing and harsh measures has worked in preventing more deaths.

[central_va]

Trump needs to step in and be the adult in the room. Do it today sir.

[trebb]

Yep - a number of us railed against the "overzealous panic" and were shouted down by those who called for more panic and more drastic measure...

I had bad dreams last night - probably triggered by the look on "Scarf Lady's" face as, (during the Task Force Briefing), she looked at the camera and told us this was a tribute to what could be accomplished through behavior modification...

You can be that a lot of would-be tyrants and despots are taking notes...God help us if the dems gain power...

[spacejunkie2001]

This is deception on an epic scale and God calls us to not be deceived. It is a proactive action for us to purposely seek out the truth. Please pray that Donald Trump is not deceived but is filled with the Holy Spirit of Truth.

[Georgia Girl 2]

Monday the director of the CDC announced that the death rate would be (much,much,much) lower than anticipated. This is the start of the big walkback. 😆

[Lions Gate]

This came out yesterday and is YUGE!!!

We’ve been needing ASAP to get antibody testing to best estimate how many in the US are INFECTED WITH CV to get a % of fatalities as a % of those infected. With the flu, the death rate of those infected averages about 0.1%. This preliminary antibody study from a hard-hit area of Germany found the real CV fatality rate of those infected is 0.37% (about 4x more than the flu). As more antibody tests are done this number will probably decline further. Keep in mind that 90% of CV deaths are over the age of 75 with pre-existing conditions.

German antibody study indicates fatality rate of 0.37 percent
Washington Compost ^ | 4/9/2020 | Washington Compost
Posted on 4/9/2020, 9:02:28 AM by TexasGurl24

BERLIN — The preliminary findings of an antibody study by German virologists published on Thursday indicates a covid-19 fatality rate of 0.37 percent, information expected to inform government decision-making about lifting restrictions.

The study by researchers at the University of Bonn involves testing 1,000 individuals in the hard-hit district of Heinsberg in northwestern Germany in an attempt to ascertain the number of people who have been infected without realizing it.

The preliminary findings were based on results from 509 individuals, the researchers said in a news conference on Thursday.

Some 14 percent of the sample had antibodies for the disease, and an additional 2 percent had current infections. A death rate of 0.37 percent is well below the 3.4 percent case fatality rate cited by the World Health Organization last month and at the lower end of the 0.3 to 1 percent range that has been estimated by scientists.

A series of antibody studies are being carried out in Germany, involving about 100,000 people. The studies are considered key to the government’s risk assessment as it decides whether to lift restrictions on daily life. Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that unless a vaccine is developed, she expects 60 to 70 percent of the population to be infected before what is known as “herd immunity” is reached.

. . .

The German scientists said they assumed immunity could last from six to 18 months but that more studies were needed.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonpost.com ...

[sport]

Don’t worry. When the case for panic over the coronavirus 19 falls apart the media and Globalists will come up with something else. And the sheep will eagerly swallow it hook, line, sinker, along with the pole or rod it was attached to. Just as they did before. The media knows this as do the Globalists.