Study claiming new coronavirus can be transmitted by people without symptoms was flawed

Science Magazine ^ | Feb 3, 2020 | Kai Kupferschmidt

[PIF]

Now 2 dead outside of he mainland

[trebb]

Yep - scare stories spreading faster than the virus...the flip side of the article is that 75% of the cases may not require anything but cold and Flu symptom relief OTC “meds”.

I felt like a cold was coming on a couple days ago and started nasal swab Zicam and Mucinex before heavier symptoms came up...seems to be on the way out now.

[lepton]

The 2% rate is based on released CCP data and is worthless

---

The 2% rate is not only based upon very uncertain CCP data, but misapplied CCP data, of how the virus is affecting people in China with China’s health care system and now-scarce medical supplies. The number is based upon reported fatalities vs reported initial sickness - which simply says that the disease is growing faster than it kills (Like almost all diseases which do not immediately kill).

Using that CCP data and ridiculously assuming it is correct, it is one extreme. At the other extreme is the number you get when you look at the numbers when the disease has run its course and compare the number that have recovered to the number of those who have died - which is now down to 40%. That 40% is very unlikely to be the correct number at the end, but it gives you an upward bound.

Assuming unreported dead, would move that bound up from 40%, and assuming under-reported numbers of sick, could move the lower bound far downward. Using some unverified numbers of 95k sick reported from a few days ago, but assuming the dead were accurately reported at that time gives a fatality rate of about .04%.

So, the fatality rate, for Chinese, in China, under current conditions, is somewhere between 40% and .04%.

[grey_whiskers]

Coronavirus: Japan quarantines cruise ship after passenger tests positive
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Follow the latest updates of the outbreak on our timeline.

Japanese health authorities have quarantined Diamond Princess cruise ship after a passenger tested positive for the coronavirus in Hong Kong, China.

The epidemic has begun in the central Chinese city of Wuhan has so far killed 427 and infected 20,623 people.

The passenger started his journey from Yokahoma, Japan, on 20 January and left the ship in Hong Kong on 25 January.

The passenger, an 80-year-old man, tested positive for the coronavirus in Hong Kong six days later.

Japanese health officials are conducting a full review of all the crew and guests. Princess Cruises said the delay might last up to 24 hours.

Operated by Carnival Japan, the ship is currently on a 14-day round trip journey. The Diamond Princess ship has 1,045 crew and 2,666 passengers on board.

In a statement, Princess Cruises said: “The safety, security and well-being of all guests and crew is our absolute priority.

“The review of the arriving guests and crew by Japanese health authorities is standard practice after a guest tested positive for coronavirus and we are working closely with the local authorities to provide detailed records to facilitate their review.”

Japan has announced 20 confirmed cases of the coronavirus with no deaths so far.

Yesterday, Saint Lucia and Dominica denied entry of the cruise ship AIDAperla into their shores as they were carrying a large number of sick passengers on board.

Last month, approximately 6,000 passengers onboard Carnival Corporation’s Costa Smeralda were allowed to leave the ship after a Chinese passenger tested negative for coronavirus.

The ship was initially quarantined at Italy’s Civitavecchia port.

https://www.ship-technology.com/news/coronavirus-japan-quarantines-cruise-ship/

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MY notes:

1) the index case left the ship on 25 January.
2) ships don’t have wet markets of exotic animals or Level-4 biohazard labs onboard.
3) other patients (10 at last count) are positive, NINE days after the index case left the ship
4) tell me where else a bunch of patients on board a CRUISE ship would’ve picked it up
(”tell her what ELSE you picked up in the Navy”)
5) H2H in a public, non-intimate setting *confirmed*

Prep now. Prepare to shelter in place for 2 months.

[Black Agnes]

I’m still going to maintain, the airport bathrooms are big transmission zones. I’d bet there are public bathrooms on that cruise ship that are biohazards as well.

Flush the potty, aerosolize it, infect everyone who uses that bathroom for hours and render every surface toxic for days.