Posted on 02/02/2020 8:44:49 PM PST by 11th_VA
On the 27th of January there were 65 2019 nCoV cases outside of China.
After six days of people leaving China by airliner, there are now 183 cases outside of China. That number is sure to grow. Grow or not, is this a virus that is going to take massive portions of the populace with it when it leaves? Not likely.
One person has died of 2019 nCoV outside of China, creating a mortality rate of 00.546%, out of that body of people.
I am not convinced this is a pandemic level event because it’s just not that lethal. On the 28th, the mortality rate was 2.179%. Since that time the mortality rate has been drifting lower. Today it is 2.084%.
The percentage of people who have recovered is very low, but that percentage is beginning to increase. On the 28th it was 1.816%. Today it is 2.798%.
The number of those recovering was lower than the mortality rate for a while. Now the number of those recovering has eclipsed the mortality rate. Oh yes, how many have died so far? As of this evening that number is 362. How many have recovered. As of this evening that number is 486.
In the last 24 hours we have seen the numbers of recovering people increase dramatically. The number of people who have gotten well increased by 42.94% today.
On the 28th, the number of people who had died was 132. The people who had gotten well was 110. That compares to the 362/486 above. Recovering people are now represented by the bigger number between the mortality figure and the recovery figure. That’s great.
The cases have now been around for six days. It appears the disease is starting to reach the end of it’s course now that time has passed. There is a strong likelihood that in the next few days we will see some pretty decent growth in the numbers of recovering people, but please realize I cannot say that with certainty. We’ll see.
Still, the data seems to be trending in that direction.
I believe the international medical community has been working together more than was previously thought. A big deal was made of the fact China didn’t want foreign medical professionals sent in, but from some medical papers I have read, there has been communications out of China addressing certain aspects of the disease, treatments, and the like.
Inside the U. S. we have seen some success with a new anti-viral.
Folks, the numbers of cases will grow. It is very unlikely we will see the 2019 nCoV devastate our populace or the populace of other nations.
17362 cases, with 362 deaths? I will be surprised if this disease kills more than 1% of the people who contract it outside of China. Certainly inside the United States, that will likely be the outcome.
The U. S. found one therapy that cause a patient to be infection free at around 24-48 hours.
There was an Asian nation reporting a case like that, with a different therapy than the one our people used. The patient was reported to have been asymptomatic with 24 hours there.
I think this is going to be manageable.
I’m not an expert in this field. I can look at numbers and make some educated guesses. I just don’t see the mortality rate that is going to allow this disease to come anywhere close to being as lethal as the season flu cases we have faced in this nation each year for decades.
I suspect the Coronavirus fatality rate is a lot higher than the 2% they are telling us. Over 10% of the 99 patients died. and 57 of the 99 are still in the hospital as of 1/30.
Only 2% of the confirmed cases have died, but only 3% have recovered, while 13% are in critical condition. THe 3% might be low. Because I’ve only recently started seaing reports on it. So it may be incomplete. And there may be a lot of people who were sent on, that they’ve not followed up on.
If half (pure guess) of the people who are critical die, the fatality rate shoots up to 8.5%.
“Here they’re still fighting Ebola, so they’re unable to consider that transmission of this bug is far, far easier.”
This is an airborne transmitted virus like a cold or the flu. Highly infectious. That part is already known.
The mortality rate isn’t yet known.
Here. And bear in mind that Singapore is not a poor country.
S’pore doctor who survived SARS infection shares tips on how to avoid getting Wuhan virus
He stressed the importance of not touching one’s face before washing hands.
Ashley Tan | February 3, 01:58 am
https://mothership.sg/2020/02/leong-hoe-nam-wuhan-virus/
Yeah, that’s what he said alright. Makes a big difference whether one should disinfect every piece of mail that comes or just let sit in the mailbox and wait for a couple hours.
This is one of those deals where you got to be sure if this thing really gets going. If you happen to find relative information about this from other sources to help confirm, please post.
Thank you
Antibiotics do zero/nada/nothing for any and all viruses. In a few cases they may prevent secondary infection but these infected people are primarily dying because their own immune system causes swelling in the lungs and fluid accumulation and they essentially drown in phlem. (Cytokine Storm)
Antiretrovirals may... and this is a big maybe have some treatment effect as might strong anti-inflammatories. Prone position induced coma with low volume artificial respiration may also help. Treatment is essentially keeping the person from drowning while their body fights off the virus. The Spanish Flu killed in the same manner.
There are a lot more cases than are reported and/or diagnosed. Some who get it are not stricken down with severe symptoms. I have seen numbers of from 90,000 to 165,000.
I'm thinking a bio-weapon would be a lot more deadly.
This virus is engineered, however. It didn't come from a bat or wild animal, the Chinese made it in a laboratory.
“I am not convinced this is a pandemic level event because it’s just not that lethal.”
Diseases are getting listed as pandemic by how fast they become global. A high mortality rate isn’t always part of it. It’s more about how infectious it is.
2019-nCoV is spreading globally at a very fast rate so WHO and CDC are calling it a pandemic.
Their preferred rule is to “get ugly early” and treat a fast moving disease as dangerous. Because if you guess wrong the other way you have no chance of stopping it.
Since a week ago, we have been pretty sure that there are thousands of cases not documented. I am sure some of those patients have died. It’s impossible for me to speculate with any precision what’s going on there, beyond what both you and I agree to. We just can’t quantify it.
The 2% ball park figures are suspect. I can understand that. None the less, we do have a body of people who we can take meaningful information away from.
We have those 183 people abroad (from China), living outside China. On the 27th, that figure was 63.
So far, out of that group, one person has died. That’s 1 out of 183.
To this point, that’s a mortality rate of 0.546%
Will that figure grow? I think so. And while some nations may suffer more than that 1% figure I mentioned in my comments, I don’t see that happening here.
Remember also that this is a new unknown disease. It is only natural for them to want to put these new patients into an intensive care unit so they can be monitored.
They want all the detail about these folks they can get.
I’m not sure that each person in an ICU is “on his/her death bed” so to speak. They may be there in large part for observation, to track this illness in minute detail so they can figure out what the norms are for future patients.
Future patients may not need to be in an ICU once they know how to treat them. This may turn into something that can be treated with IVs for 48 hours, and then sent home.
I only say that, because several cases have evidently been treated with success in short order.
I appreciate your thoughts on this.
I hope Trump is doing more behind the scenes than we are seeing outwardly. They are barely doing anything from what I can tell. i hope I am wrong. People supposedly can be infectious before they have symptoms. The screening is not broad enough, as it is now becoming epidemic through all of China.
We have 11 now in the USA.
DATE CASES INCR INCR % 28th 87 22 33.85% 29th 105 18 20.69% 30th 118 13 12.38% 31st 153 35 29.66% -1st 177 24 15.69% -2nd 183 6 03.39%I agree that the numbers inside China are alarming in their explosion.
If we looked at the seasonal flu, we have numbers that dwarf these by ten to twenty times or more. Who knows where these numbers will wind up, but we don't term the flu a pandemic. It's mortality rate is higher than this.
While I do think health organizations have to be out front on things like this, I'm not convinced there's a lot to be gained by using alarming language. There's nothing the public can do about it.
Why are they going so crazy over this? They don't over the flu. They don't try to scare the holy hell out of people when it's the flu.
Antibiotics can be effective against secondary infections, i.e., when someone’s lungs get junked up with mucus due to viral infection, a secondary bacterial infection often develops. Antibiotics can and do treat those secondary bacterial infections. I
Viruses are inflammatory by itself and thus secondary infection is possible it is not the biggest issue unless we are talking about HIV. Treating secondary infection is not of much help when the primary one is untouched. Not to mention antibiotics are weakening the immune system enabling the virus in the first place.
I wrote this to familyop.
Hopefully it will address the issues you raised.
I understand where you are coming from with regard to reporting in China. It’s handled it’s affairs like the old Soviet Union did, and North Korea still does. We agree.
We agree about the type of government they have too.
See if this helps.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3813163/posts?page=52#52
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