Skip to comments.NC-9 Special Election Discussion
Posted on 09/10/2019 3:53:05 PM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
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Nice to get the actual view from the election area!
If Trump would win this district by just 3 points, he would lose the state by about 5.I don't think you can make this assumption. NC-9 is not the same district as it was when Trump ran in 2016. I believe it was redrawn in 2017 to be a more competitive district. In 2018 that proved to be true -- in a year where Dems were winning tossups all over, they almost won this district (GOP won by less than 1%). Then, it was revealed that the GOP candidate who won engaged in fraud, and the seat was vacated pending this special election last night. The Dem candidate was a Marine vet and seemingly very conservative on some key issues, and he had the luxury of basically never stopping his campaign from 2018 and all the liberal special interest money being dropped into his district on his behalf. Bishop was in big trouble until he was able to get this visit from Trump to help him pull it out by 2%.
NC-09 has a PVI of GOP+8 it looks like a GOP win of about 2.5% there.I don't think you can make this assumption. NC-9 is not the same district as it was when Trump ran in 2016. I believe it was redrawn in 2017 to be a more competitive district. Thus the only previous House election we have it was essentially a razor-thin margin in 2018.
Wow. It was re-drawn? You made a really good point that I had not considered. Thank you for your post.
Well, I should have double-checked my source and dates. It looks like it was re-drawn in Feb 2016 to be more competitive. If that was the case, and they used that redrawn map of Feb 2016 in the Nov 2016 Presidential race, then we do need to tap the brakes as some have suggested. Trump won this district by 7 or 8 percentage points in 2016. I still think the fact that the Dem had been campaigning non-stop for 3 years and had so much outside money flowing in, coupled with the fact that the taint from the 2018 race where the GOP candidate cheated, makes this win significant. I don’t think the GOP is behind its 2016 percentage by 6% (8%-2%), but we can’t dismiss the fact that it might. In the other NC race last night, the GOP candidate did a little better than projected, so there is that data point to consider. Holding this seat, NC-9, was important, thanks to Trump’s late push for Bishop.
Thanks for the clarifying and I agree with your comments.
From your fingers to God’s ears. Glad the results turned out the way they did.
Let’s not forget that McCready, a former Marine, ran as a faux-”moderate” who claimed he’d be “bipartisan.” That captures some of the mushy middle. Had the dems run one of their typical garden-variety soiboi progs, Bishop would’ve wiped the floor with them.
It’s all about the Lumbees, Bishop barely lost Robeson county. Harris lost it by 15 in the near tie 2018 election.
So Bishop wins despite doing slightly worse in Meckenburg and the same in Union.
Where’s the live thread for the rat masterdebate?
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