Skip to comments.Donít fear a recession ó the economy is looking solid and stable
Posted on 09/09/2019 11:36:59 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
One of the hardest things to understand about the current economy is that we are in a good, solid place but not a perfect one.
Last weeks jobs report was a touch light on the number of jobs added, but average hourly earnings were up nicely and, besides, August tends to be a bit of a squirrely month anyway.
This economy can best be summed up by a classic childhood fairy tale: Goldilocks and the Three Bears. The growth is exactly the way Goldilocks prefers her porridge: not too hot, not too cold, but just right.
While the nonfarm payroll growth number of 130,000 was disappointing on Friday, ADPs private payroll growth came in way over expectations at 195,000.
The labor force participation rate is hovering around multiyear highs, and average hourly earnings came in higher than expected all against the resilient backdrop of a 3.7% unemployment rate.
That equals a solid, stable economy.
We are not in a recession. Nor are we in a boom. No longer are we adding 200,000 jobs a month, as in President Trumps first two years.
Its important to recognize why it is hard to get the unemployment down below this 3.6%-to-4% range.
Part of the reason is the Fed having been way too aggressive with its rate hikes. And part is the tensions with (and tantrums about) China that never-ending, on-again, off-again saga.
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
Thanks for posting. Combine that with this interesting article at zero hedge this morning...
I’ve been calling this a Goldilocks economy for months and I expect it to continue this way until it booms when a China deal is made. That will happen before the election, obviously.
Tax rates are down and energy is cheap. That always bodes well for an economy.
Things are going very well.
Then a few weeks ago, as if on cue, the media introduced the word recession in all of their output.
Almost as if they were trying to get everyone to believe that things were not as good as they are.
My recession needs more cowbell.
A recession is defined as two quarters of negative GDP growth (loss) in a row. There is and has never been any indication that is likely to happen. Total BS made-up fake news.
Demonrats are deeply distressed!
OK, the economy is doing great and the Dem fearmongering about recession isn’t going to work....cue impeachment!
Well Jay Powell was planning on letting us hit the rocks and go into recession for the election in hopes of getting rid of Trump. Rising interest rates take dollars out of the system which suppresses economic activity. Lowering rates puts more dollars in circulation which is what Trump needs to fuel manufacturing and expand the economy.
It appears Trump has taken the Fed in hand as we just had a quarter point rate cut and smart money says two more cuts by year end. Trump is going to force the Fed to zero or near zero rates.
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