Interesting take. Thanks for the post. Your opinion on Trump’s sanctions effect on Iran?
“Your opinion on Trump’s sanctions effect on Iran?”
Iran informed Hezbollah that they could no longer afford to subsidize them. Hezbollah has been handing out little banks for children to get filled up as donations. So, because of Trump Hezbollah has been reduced to dong the Islamic equivalent of bake sales. The Iranian government is under extreme pressure from their citizens to stop subsidizing an infinite war in Syria and to concentrate on the situation at home, where food and fuel prices are going up, up, up. Iran’s threats against US forces in the area is desperate flailing around to get Trump to relent and allow relief. Also, large EU companies have left Iran due to Trump’s threat to make them pay for ignoring his embargo.
All the pressure points are in Trump’s favor. Timing is in Trump’s favor. The question is; is Trump pushing for regime change? Or, is he willing to negotiate short of regime change? He has them in an armlock, but he doesn’t want to use military force as he promised no more foreign wars. One way to not have to fight a war is to make it look and sound like he is ready and willing to do so. I think he is playing good cop/bad cop by letting his cabinet officials sound the war drums while he appears to waffle. Trump is not a waffler. If he appears to do so, it is for show.