Posted on 06/04/2019 5:48:49 PM PDT by SMGFan
Two in states won by Clinton and six in states that backed Trump
ANALYSIS — The fight for the Senate starts off with only a handful of seats at risk. And that’s being generous.
A few other states are worth your attention because of their competitiveness or questions about President Donald Trump’s impact, but almost two-thirds of Senate contests this cycle start as “safe” for the incumbent party and are likely to remain that way.
Of course, a retirement or a public scandal could create a contest where one should not exist, and an implosion of the Trump presidency could create an opportunity or two for Democrats.
But the nation’s polarization and intense partisan divide, combined with the fundamentals of the 34 states that will have a Senate race next year, suggest that only a few states — and a few voters — will decide which party runs the chamber in 2021.
The Senate now stands at 53 Republicans and 47 in the Democratic Conference. So Democrats need a net gain of three or four seats to win control, depending on who wins the White House (since the vice president, as president of the Senate, casts tie-breaking votes).
Seven of the dozen Democratic seats up this cycle are in strongly Democratic states and not competitive: Delaware, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon and Rhode Island. Even Sen. Tom Udall’s retirement does not put New Mexico into play.
Among battleground states with Democratic incumbents, Virginia has been moving toward the Democrats as the Washington, D.C., and Richmond suburbs have grown. And Hillary Clinton’s 5-point victory in the state in 2016, combined with the following year’s gubernatorial result, suggests Trump is likely to be an albatross around the neck of the eventual GOP Senate nominee in the Old Dominion.
Minnesota and New Hampshire are competitive states that Democrats cannot afford to lose. (Clinton carried each narrowly.) Both states bear watching, though Democratic incumbents Tina Smith of Minnesota and Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire start off with clear advantages.
In Michigan, a state surprisingly carried by Trump in 2016, freshman Democrat Gary Peters starts off with the advantage but must also prove his mettle. Again, his seat is a “must hold” for Democrats.
Does anywhere near a majority of voters in those states support infanticide? Both of these Senators voted against banning it - it should be a major issue in there elections. Do a majority of voters in the supposedly "safe" Dem seats support infanticide? I think not. They should all be challenged - concede none of them.
The Senate is the real issue in 2020, we must hold it!
Does anywhere near a majority of voters in those states support infanticide? Both of these Senators voted against banning it - it should be a major issue in their elections. Do a majority of voters in the supposedly "safe" Dem seats support infanticide? I think not. They should all be challenged - concede none of them.
One thing that could help us a lot is if the Dem candidate for President turns out to be one of the many whack jobs currently running for the job. I think a far left candidate could turn off the rank and file Dems and suppress the vote. That said, I am also worried about fraud.
IMHO, if we Americans lose the Senate there will be no chance, short of gun fire, to stop this Orwellian juggernaut...
John James can win that seat - but he has to have the $$$. The end result in 2018 proved if he had had full funding from the beginning, that race was entirely winnable. He needs $10 million (minimum) to be able to run a full media campaign starting September 1. Not just two weeks before the election like in 2018 - where the gap closed rapidly after he got up on the air, but the gap was too large to close in so little time. That was a huge missed opportunity.
We must hold the Senate so they can continue to STAB our POTUS in the back at EVERY damn turn NO THANKS!!!
Trump being re-elected and holding the Senate = more constitutional judges...enough to start reversing many years of damage to the rule of law.
We need a strong candidate in Alabama. No rolling the dice on a guy who lost.
Thank you.
I’m sure you’ll love Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer.
The trolls are now showing up to argue it would be best to lose the Senate - as though the Supreme Court and judges, along with other critical appointments are completely inconsequential.
Elections for the Senate are the key to any hope for the Nation’s long-term survival...
IMHO, if we Americans lose the Senate there will be no chance, short of gun fire, to stop this Orwellian juggernaut...
Sorry, there is no hope for national survival if that rests on the useless United States Senate. They have proven beyond a shadow of a doubt during that Age of Trump that they represent K Street lobbyists and not Main Street voters.
We must hold the Senate so they can continue to STAB our POTUS in the back at EVERY damn turn NO THANKS!!!
Yep. The Senate GOP has been 100% as supportive of the Mueller Coup as the Dems in the Senate.
I’m sure you’ll love Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer.
He would be exactly as supportive of POTUS on the immigration as McConnell has been. And on Fed picks, etc., etc.
You have exactly two choices for Senate Majority Leadeer: Mitch McConnell or Charles Schumer. Choose wisely.
The trolls are now showing up to argue it would be best to lose the Senate - as though the Supreme Court and judges, along with other critical appointments are completely inconsequential.
Critical appointments? Like Fed picks? Like threatening POTUS not to fire AG Session?
The Senate GOP has given aid and comfort to the Mueller Coup. They have defacto endorsed his police state tactics that resulted in for example an old man in solitary and a miscarried baby after an all day long interrogation by Mueller’s FBI goons.
It should be clear to even a causal observer after two years of GOP Senate resistance to Trump that we have already lost the Senate.
You have exactly two choices for Senate Majority Leadeer: Mitch McConnell or Charles Schumer. Choose wisely.
Or I could just follow the Romney Rule reserve the right to “vote for my wife”. Your subservient attitude in the face of GOP obstruction of POTUS is indicative of why conservatives will never control the GOP.
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