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Methane warming exaggerated by 400% (Attention: AOC)
What's Up With That ^ | March 30, 2019 | Barry Brill

Posted on 04/03/2019 10:02:21 AM PDT by Rocky

The IPCC’s AR5 estimated the global warming caused by a tonne of livestock methane would be 28 times that of a tonne of carbon dioxide. New research destroys that estimate.

The war on meat has been gathering pace amongst our Western elites. The Economist makes a detailed case for “plant-based food” in the interests of quelling climate change –

The FAO calculates that cattle generate up to two-thirds of the greenhouse gases from livestock, and are the world’s fifth largest source of methane. If cows were a country, the United Herds of Earth would be the planet’s third largest greenhouse-gas emitter.

These calculations are based on figures supplied by the IPCC’s AR5, which contends that the global warming potential (GWP) of methane over 100 years is no less than 28 times the global warming it expects to be caused by an equivalent weight of carbon dioxide. This estimate is up from the GWP of 21 put forward in the IPCC’s previous report.

All this is now challenged by a new and authoritative research paper, Allen et al (2017): “A solution to the misrepresentations of CO2-equivalent emissions of short-lived climate pollutants, under ambitious mitigation”. This paper finds that conventional GWPs misrepresent the impact of short-lived gases (such as methane) on global temperature – and recommends the adoption of a new metric, denoted as GWP*.

This is a big advance. The abstract observes that, “measured by GWP*, implementing the Paris Agreement would reduce the expected rate of warming in 2030 by 28% relative to No Policy”. And who would know this better than lead author Myles Allen, who was also a co-author of the IPCC’s SR1.5 in 2018.

Currently visiting New Zealand, Professor Allen has recommended that enteric methane be entirely omitted from that country’s cap-and-trade scheme (ETS) because a steady-state herd of cattle can add very little to global warming. Methane has a half-life in the atmosphere of only about six years – so that every new molecule added is offset by the expiry of a molecule emitted by that herd a few years earlier.

He says:

“Traditional greenhouse gas accounting ignores the impact of changing methane emission rates while grossly exaggerating the impact of steady methane emissions”. And –

“Climate policy the world over has traditionally treated every tonne of methane as supposedly “equivalent” to 28 tonnes of carbon dioxide… It isn’t.

To find the carbon dioxide emissions that would actually have a similar impact on global temperature as methane emissions, you need to multiply those methane emissions by seven (not 28), and add the rate of change of methane emissions (measured in tonnes of methane per year per year), multiplied by 2100.”

If there is no “rate of change” (ie the quantity of emissions by weight is constant over time) then there is a one-off impact of only seven times the equivalent weight of CO2. Note that this should only be counted once – there is no accumulation as is the case for CO2 and other long-lived gases.

And, if the herd’s digestive efficiency is improved ever so slightly –

“Even more strikingly, if an individual herd’s methane emissions are falling by one third of one percent per year (that’s 7/2100, so the two terms cancel out) …then that herd is no longer adding to global warming. Yet if methane were included in a European-style Emission Trading System (ETS), the owner of the herd would have to pay just as if it was.”

Professor Allen is not beset by doubts regarding the error of the old ways:

“That this formula is vastly more accurate than the traditional accounting rule is indisputable.”

Not only are steady-state cattle herds climatically harmless, but they have the opportunity to help out the motorists and jet-setters. Professor Allen says in a further speech that if New Zealand reduced methane emissions by 30% over the next 30 years, that would actually contribute to global cooling:

“If a farmer is providing a service to the rest of the country by compensating for other people’s global warming, then that farmer might want to make a case that they should be compensated for that.”

As a co-author of SR1.5, the professor has a tip for the meat warriors that they should not rely on RCP scenarios:

“Those scenarios are based on economic models of the relative cost of different ways of reducing emissions. Some of the inputs to these models, like the estimated “cost” of a large fraction of the population turning vegetarian, are deeply subjective. The scenarios provide background information, but I would not rely on them as a basis for national policy.”

The findings of the Allen et al paper have been implicitly accepted by New Zealand’s Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, Simon Upton – formerly the head of the OECD Environment Directorate. He has this week published a lengthy and detailed report, Farms, Forests and Fossil Fuels, which recommends that the Government develop two separate targets for the second half of the 21st century – a zero target for fossil emissions, and a reduction target for biological emissions.

Let’s all enjoy a hearty guilt-free steak, served with lashings of cheese and butter!

TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: blog; cattle; climatechange; methane
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So much for one of the basic premises in The Green New Deal.
1 posted on 04/03/2019 10:02:21 AM PDT by Rocky
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To: Rocky

Aren’t these dems producing some of the same gases they say are destroying the world?

Wouldn’t suicide be the answer?

The teens and 20 something are so dumb and brainwashed today they might be ripe for convincing their breathing alone is ruining the earth

2 posted on 04/03/2019 10:04:54 AM PDT by dp0622 (The Left should know if.. Trump is kicked out of office, it is WAR)
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To: Rocky

Science and liberals are not friends.
Math and liberals are not friends.
Logic and liberals are not friends.
Civilization and liberals are not friends.
Hmmm, methinks a pattern is emerging.

3 posted on 04/03/2019 10:08:38 AM PDT by Da Coyote
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To: dp0622

4 posted on 04/03/2019 10:09:50 AM PDT by Fiddlstix (Warning! This Is A Subliminal Tagline! Read it at your own risk!(Presented by TagLines R US))
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To: Da Coyote

Forgot to add, the lede was followed by “Attention AOC”.
Won’t work for two reasons: 1) there was a number, and 2) there was this funny math symbol (%). AOC has a Econ degree from the (L)university of Boston. She understands neither.

We are talking the “mother of all bimbos”.

5 posted on 04/03/2019 10:13:24 AM PDT by Da Coyote
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To: Rocky

Denigrating meat devalues the rural (conservative) parts of America to the benefit of the urban (leftist) areas. That is the end game for libs.

It has nothing to do with climate or methane or anything but concentration of power.

6 posted on 04/03/2019 10:14:49 AM PDT by IronJack
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To: Rocky

They’re missing a whale of a scientific opportunity to save the planet. They should be erecting huge solar driven wind machines on one side of each herd and blow all that methane gas into huge collection devices erected on the other side. Then they can capture enough naturally produced gas to drive a power plant on methane gas. Look ma, no coal.

Once that’s perfected, then they can erect the same kind of gas capturing apparatus on either side of Washington, D.C.

7 posted on 04/03/2019 10:15:59 AM PDT by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!)
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To: Da Coyote

OK!! Everybody pay attention!
Lesson for today:
1. The sun is 1,300,000 times as big as the earth.
2. The sun is a giant nuclear furnace that controls the climates of all its planets.
3. The earth is one of the sun’s planets.
4. The earth is a speck in comparison to the size of the sun.
5. Inhabitants of the earth are less than specks.
Study Question: How do less-than-specks in congress plan to control the sun?

8 posted on 04/03/2019 10:18:00 AM PDT by abclily
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To: Rocky

The headline assumes there *is* warming and that methane can or does affect it.

9 posted on 04/03/2019 10:22:06 AM PDT by AAABEST (NY/DC/LA media/political industrial complex DELENDA EST)
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To: Rocky

AOC save us from cow farts, from a world of fetid flatulence. Give us gas masks to make our way to work, to the doctor’s office, to the movie theater. We have to be protected from this fatal gas. Kill every cow! Whether a holy cow or not we must make war on India! The world must be saved from this bovine botulism, this plague, from this madness of cattle that want to destroy the planet.

10 posted on 04/03/2019 10:33:47 AM PDT by BEJ
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To: KC_Lion


11 posted on 04/03/2019 10:34:50 AM PDT by Army Air Corps (Four Fried Chickens and a Coke)
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To: Rocky

Democrats believe what they wanna believe and they want us all to live like refugees. Tom Petty.

12 posted on 04/03/2019 10:35:54 AM PDT by DungeonMaster (...the cross of our Lord Jesus Christ, by Whom the world has been crucified to me.)
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To: Fiddlstix

Chiquita Kruschev . . . I like that one. Will use it if you don’t mind.

13 posted on 04/03/2019 10:55:19 AM PDT by RatRipper
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To: RatRipper
Have at it. I got it from other freepers. Several here have been using it
14 posted on 04/03/2019 11:00:34 AM PDT by Fiddlstix (Warning! This Is A Subliminal Tagline! Read it at your own risk!(Presented by TagLines R US))
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To: abclily

15 posted on 04/03/2019 11:02:49 AM PDT by TomGuy
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To: Rocky

I wonder how long we will have to wait for this study to be reported in the corrupt major media in the US?

16 posted on 04/03/2019 11:07:08 AM PDT by Truth29
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To: Rocky

Got introduce to this funny guy called Adam and his show Adam Ruins Everything.

Adam Ruins Everything - How Humans Altered Entire Ecosystems to Create National Parks | truTV

17 posted on 04/03/2019 11:56:20 AM PDT by GailA (PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP, GET OVER IT SNOWFLAKES.)
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To: Rocky

More CO2 = more plants
More PLANTS = more FOOD
Except for THEM and THEIR FAMILIES & FRIENDS, the elites/globalists want earth’s population reduced to UNDER 2 BILLION humans, most of whom would be allowed to live in order to serve THEM.
Why would those responsible propagate and perpetuate this fraud?  Perhaps because like a herd of sheep, moved this way and that by a barking sheepdog, a frightened population, ignorant of the FACTS or SCIENCE,  is more easily herded to some desired destination.  In our case, that destination is a New World Order CORRAL constructed by globalist oligarchs hellbent on creating the compliant & subservient population required to serve THEM & THEIR needs.
But they have a problem: Too many of us are still not in the abattoir corral but milling around near the gate.
BOTTOM LINE: The “global warming” SCAM – perpetuated by the pseudoscience grant money whores – is all about making the “ELITES” lives as comfortable as possible by eliminating competition for the resources they, due to their SUPERIOR BREEDING & STATUS, view as THEIRS.
(The first link blows Algore and his hysteria away in 3.5 minutes)

18 posted on 04/03/2019 12:24:03 PM PDT by Dick Bachert
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To: Rocky
The site is actually named Watt's up with that? After the founder Anthony Watts.
19 posted on 04/03/2019 12:38:28 PM PDT by Robert DeLong
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To: Rocky

Clearly this person has never ate at a Taco Bell.

20 posted on 04/03/2019 12:43:27 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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