Skip to comments.Economists: Based on Presidential History, Trump Will Win 2020 in a Landslide
Posted on 03/22/2019 3:02:32 PM PDT by jazusamo
A new CNN poll from earlier this week shows a whopping 71 percent of the country believes the economy is doing really well.
Overall, 71% say the nations economy is in good shape, the highest share to say so since February 2001, and the best rating during Trumps presidency by two points. A majority give the President positive reviews for his handling of the nations economy (51% approve), and his overall approval rating has ticked up to 42% in the new poll. The 51% who say they disapprove of the Presidents job performance overall represent the lowest share to do so in CNN polling since the start of his presidency.
Based on this number, in addition to a number of other economic factors, some economists believe Trump is on his way to a 2020 landslide victory if things hold. From POLITICO :
If the election were held today, hed likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses.
Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices along with the historic advantage held by incumbent presidents.
The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it, said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trumps 2016 win when most opinion polls did not. I just dont see how the blue wall could resist all that.
Yale economist Ray Fair, who pioneered this kind of modeling, also shows Trump winning by a fair margin in 2020 based on the economy and the advantage of incumbency.
Even if you have a mediocre but not great economy and thats more or less consensus for between now and the election that has a Trump victory and by a not-trivial margin, winning 54 percent of the popular vote to 46 for the Democrat, he said. Fairs model also predicted a Trump win in 2016 though it missed on Trumps share of the popular vote.
Trump campaign manager Brad Pascale sat down with CNN recently to talk about 2020 strategy and messaging, which strongly emphases the economy.
CNN gets rare look into Trump's re-election campaign
May a landslide victory be so.
And so say we all.
Only thing that would stop it, is massive voter fraud.
So be it, amen.
The dems will try to pick off Penn and Mich. They may succeed. They have already named Wisconsin as their convention site in 2020. They may pick that off also. Trump knows all of this and will fight like hell, but he just might lose if people do not work on it.
Time is a wasting.
I don’t know what we as individuals can do to stop that, esp. if your politicians are dems.
Perhaps President Trump’s coattails will be sufficient as to allow the Repubs to retake the House.
But, frankly, what difference would it make?
Stevie Wonder can see this coming.
Gare Ron Teed!
The Dems are a clown shows clown show. The Clintons and the Husseins turned the DNC into an anti-American, culturally-rotten, infant-killing, Jew-hating, open-border, pissant party.
We are going to have to work hard to make it so. A Trump 2020 is crucial for us to get the agenda done, including the adding of another SC judge.
I think they will be and hold the Senate, which is what is crucial. Without a Paul Ryan, the House will be far more friendly to Trump’s agenda
Yep...Taking the House back would be the icing on the cake with President Trump’s win.
And the polls will not show it. There are legions of people like me who live in blue or purple states and keep our politics quiet to avoid getting fired, poisoned or run over in the street.
I predict the disconnect between the polls and the election results will be wider than 2016, unless the Democrat voter fraud is set to max.
Its a year amd a half to the election. A lot can happen between now and then.
This meme is craftily designed to suppress turnout on the Republican side. DON’T SWALLOW IT!
Nothing is going to suppress The Donald’s turnout.
Underestimate Donald Trump at your peril. Things that you are anguishing over now, Mr. Trump is busting his hump to nail down. I have made the same mistake worrying over Trump myself. Not to say that we should be complacent, but Trump is on it.
Gotta win Florida South Carolina Pennsylvania and Texas
WHAT is WITH all of these nailbiting cliffhanger predictions?
I have never before seen one man roll up his sleeves and set to kicking Crap out of his way!
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