Posted on 11/01/2018 6:42:52 PM PDT by 11th_VA
Great point - I heard today the Republicans are "Only" 2-3% ahead of Democrats Nationally in early voting ...
Even Rasmussen was a spectacular flop there.
You can never be sure how reliable public opinion is and it’s getting harder and harder to conduct truly random sample polls.
Nobody knows what people really think, including the pollsters.
One of my first jobs after I got my MBA was working as a Poll Designer for what was at the time, the biggest polling organization in the state.
The project leader (and VP of the company) was in anguish because the people who commissioned the poll didn’t indicate what results they wanted, and then in further anguish trying to decide what results we should produce in order for the company to get hired by the commissioning entity in the future.
Idealist that I am, I fought to design an honest poll and produce honest analysis of it afterwards.
I quit that company as soon as the project was finished. And never believed the results of any poll thereafter.
I have had a lot of fun spoofing telephone polls (no pun intended)the last 2 weeks. I have been a 34 y.o.female dim, older independent never- Trumper, etc. Lots of fun dealing with annoying calls.
The last robo poll call to me I was a pro-life black lesbian conservative.
Pollsters have modeled this midterm after 2016.
Its looking a lot more like 2014. But they’re not adjusting their models because they think Democrats will turnout on Election Day.
What if they don’t?
It’s stupid if you believe polls. Plus there is no evidence it suppresses the right. I suggest it does the opposite.
Live by the polls, die by the polls.
In the old days, you could set your watch by them. Nowadays, not so much.
One should always be willing to talk to pollsters. Let them know you support Constitutional Fascism and vote only for candidates that use the appropriate code words.
If enough folks would do it, it would eventually send the Leftist Media Establishment down a rabbit trail.
You are not listening. I know polls are BS.
Politics follows the law of thirds. A third on the left, a third on the right, and third in the middle. The left and the right are not influenced by polls or believe them. It's a different story when it comes to the sheeple in the middle, the "independents", who are influenced. I think the fake slanted in favor of Democrat polls help them with the sheeple who's shallow view of politics is sometimes a go with flow beauty contest.
I wouldn’t be relying on any polls after this last election...not one.... Voting day I’ll watch because it’s like watching a race to the finish line... just plain fun.
I thought your #30 was the most stupid reply on this thread.
Then I read your #31.....I was wrong.
Author states.....”many of the state-level polls were wrong in 2016 simply because many ‘Trump voters’ told pollsters to take a hike...”
Ha! Blaming Trump voters again! They’ll never admit they were wrong because they were so deep into Hillary’s camp they couldn’t see past it!!
Ooops...I just read your #40
It tops your other two.
Polling is form of political propaganda used to influence the ill informed masses and the right wing seems to throw this tool away. I don’t get that....
The best is to lie and tell them you will vote dem. That doubles the effect.
The fact that you call independent, non-aligned voters stupid is proof that there is a lot you don’t “get”
Conservatives often recognize our vote is private.....
But heck even the Voting Booth Is No Longer Private....social media has enabled ballot-sharing these days....we live in a culture of “pics or it didn’t happen”...the notion that nothing can be believed unless it’s captured in digital image is the trend.
However The Supreme Court has recognized, the framers of the Constitution thought that anonymity was crucial to democratic participation—including the freedom to take unpopular positions without fear of retribution.
People have been fired for revealing who they voted for!
From my dealings with "independents" I find most of them are either politically unsophisticated or bitter party renegades. Mostly they act like they are "above it all" which is an excuse for political laziness.
This is exactly what I said was happening back in the 2016 race, and the trend has only steepened considerably.
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