Posted on 11/01/2018 9:35:08 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
Three new Emerson battleground polls find two US Senators in vulnerable positions; in Texas, US Senator Ted Cruz (R-Inc) is at 50%, Beto O’Rourke (D) 47%, 2% undecided.
In West Virginia US Senator Joe Manchin (D-Inc) at 47%, Patrick Morrisey (R) 42%, 8% undecided. Manchin has a slightly more positive image in the state with a 46% favorable/ 43% unfavorable while Morrissey is underwater at 35%/ 52%, however President Trump is popular in WV with a 56% favorable/ 39% unfavorable.
In Tennessee, Marsha Blackburn (R) 52%, Phil Bredesen (D) 44%, 3% undecided.
ETC...
Add 5 to 8 percentage points to the Republican in any polling data that’s released free of charge to the public.
Beto within the margin of error in Texas?
one thing we are seeing in these polls- more and more Republicans over 50%...another one today had McSally in Arizona at 52%...
then again, i’m not concerned about the senate...
“in Texas, US Senator Ted Cruz (R-Inc) is at 50%, Beto O’Rourke (D) 47%, 2% undecided.”
I took my senior level college stats course from one of his staff. The prof was pretty good herself but in awe of how good Wirthlin delivered and delivered consistently, within 1/2 of 1%!
Best story ever is that Wirthlin told Reagan he was within a 0.5% margin to sweep all 50 states in 1984 and 1-2 visits to Minnesota would do it. Reagan brushed him off as his schedule was full trying to pull congressional candidates over the finish line. But he did finally agree to schedule a "refueling stop/campaign rally" in Rochester, Minnesota on election eve en route back to California.
Rochester because it was in the southeastern corner of the state and the short speech would be delivered in time for the 10 pm news. Mondale's final margin: 0.18% or 3,761 votes in HIS HOME STATE where Mondale had never lost an election (until he stood in for Paul Wellstone some 18 years later).
Most polls in Texas has Cruz up by 9% it will not be close
Emerson College is based in Boston, MA.
**********
Their polling is managed/ran by a group of students
that is overseen by a professor. Not that it can’t
be accurate but time will tell on Texas. Beto isn’t
going to defeat Cruz. It may be a closer race than
the governor race but Cruz will win.
Agreed. I think the media is spinning for ratings and they will do it thru Tuesday evening.
They don't care about ratings. They're spinning for the big money that's paying them under the table. They're being paid off by wealthy people to shill for Democrats. A lot of the money is coming from outside America, but there's plenty from inside our country too.
They don't need ratings.
Guessing coin flips is more accurate than Emerson.
Reality: Cruz up 9%, this poll 3%, => ADJUST 6% up to all GOP this pollster @ this time.
‘LOVE IT’
If a D up 51-49 he has a commanding lead
If a R up 53-47 it is ‘within the margin of error’
As far as ‘we’ are concerned, really can’t sit here and call ALL polls trash UNTIL ‘we’ go ahead - then the poll apparently is gospel.
The MSM and ALL the pollsters have already shown they are NOT trustworthy or reliable -
check out the Pollsters/MSM 2 years ago TODAY....
And, here we are 2 years later and they are still acting like they had the correct predictions but WE are stupid for not believing them.
Of course I can fully attest to the reasoning why they are so far off...
IF ‘they’ are so unlucky as to have me answer a call that is a poll or ‘question’ me on the way out of the voting arena, they will get a ‘None of your f’n business(depends how ‘hard’ they ask) or I will deliberately ‘lie’ to them.
I use the same theory as ‘there is a reason we call it concealed carry’.
FAKE POLL:
You had to dig really deep (https://www.emerson.edu/sites/default/files/news/press-release/ecp_wv_2018final.xls) to determine that this poll included the following:
Democrats: 42.8
Republicans: 36.6
Does anyone really believe that these numbers are accurate with respect to West Virginia?
I take it that they do some data analytics thing to get their projections. It’s interesting but does this outfit have any track record that would enable us to judge whether to take them seriously?
Emerson, who the hell is that? Some lefty college??
Everyone should keep track of these numbers and in the future, remind the nation of which polls were hilariously structured and utilized only to try and influence the election, not measure the reality...this is going to be one of those that will be held up to ridicule next election season.
Everyone should keep track of these numbers and in the future, remind the nation of which polls were hilariously structured and utilized only to try and influence the election, not measure the reality...this is going to be one of those that will be held up to ridicule next election season.
I still cannot get over these so called “undecided” Voters they keep talking about. What does it take to figure out what a Candidate favors at this point?
Are they Alzheimer Patients waiting for the Democrats to come to the Nursing Home with Ballots with all the D Boxes already checked?
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