The same group that predicted President Hillary would win with less than a 5% chance of Trump pulling a miracle.
Actually 528 has been quite accurate - they gave Trump a 35% chance of winning the election, which was higher than any other poll or media source. If polls and predictions were always right there would be no upsets in sports, elections or anything else.
538 went through a major lookback after failing to predict Trump’s victory in the 2016 Primary. They realized that they had ignored the data and instead listened to their colleague pundits. Will not be making that mistake again.
Watch as the night unfolds and they increase the odds of the GOP holding the House and then try to explain away their forecast.
Nate isn’t so great at predictions when he doesn’t have access to Obama’s internal polls.
‘The same group that predicted President Hillary would win with less than a 5% chance of Trump pulling a miracle’
not really; in the last weeks of the 2016 campaign, Silver determined that Trump’s actual chances were better than 40%, which got him in hot water with his minions...