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Sabato: Democrats 4 seats short of locking down House win
WASHINGTON EXAMINER ^ | 10/18/18 | Paul Bedard

Posted on 10/18/2018 2:06:47 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper

...“A race-by-race analysis of Democratic House targets shows the party is close to winning the majority, but they do not have it put away, in our judgment, with Election Day less than three weeks away,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball in his new post.

...the Democrats in a worst-case scenario could be four seats shy of the needed 23 needed to install Rep. Nancy Pelosi as speaker.

Of course there are caveats, such as the impact of the huge influx of money to Democrats and President Trump’s decision to campaign furiously through Election Day, but the analysis is a bit of a wet towel on polls and reports declaring a blue wave blowout election.

Nonetheless, he predicts a good night for Democrats.

“Barring a big, positive late change in the political environment in favor of Republicans, the bare minimum for Democratic House gains is in the mid-to-high teens.

(Excerpt) Read more at washingtonexaminer.com ...


TOPICS: Breaking News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: 2018; 2018midterm; 2018midterms; 2018midtermshouse; botox; california; crystalball; election; fantasy; nancypelosi; redwave; sabato; sanfrannan
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Reminder:

And the day before the election, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball prophesied 322 electoral votes for Clinton and 216 for Trump.

1 posted on 10/18/2018 2:06:47 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
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To: SoFloFreeper

Is this guy a RINO whore or what?


2 posted on 10/18/2018 2:08:18 PM PDT by OKSooner
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To: SoFloFreeper

Thank God it’s Larry Sabato.

He hasn’t been right about an election in 15 years.

We still have the video of him smirking about how Trump can’t win.

And this moron actually teaches snowflakes who pay huge tuitions to hear him!


3 posted on 10/18/2018 2:08:57 PM PDT by oldbill
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To: SoFloFreeper

Just more manipulation.


4 posted on 10/18/2018 2:09:07 PM PDT by Revel
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To: SoFloFreeper

Ignore polls and projections, just be sure and VOTE!!!!!!!!!!!


5 posted on 10/18/2018 2:10:06 PM PDT by Innovative
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To: SoFloFreeper

Bought and paid for Sabato to the rescue. There is no credit after discredit.


6 posted on 10/18/2018 2:10:19 PM PDT by samadams2000 (Get your houses in order.)
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To: SoFloFreeper

That won’t win the House for them! And we will win seats in the Senate! Sounds like they are backing off of the Blue Wave!


7 posted on 10/18/2018 2:10:36 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration
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To: SoFloFreeper

Yes I’m being a wet blanket, but we aren’t going to win every election based on 2016, and every negative poll isn’t going to be wrong. Let’s not have 2016 become our kool aid.


8 posted on 10/18/2018 2:13:01 PM PDT by Williams (Stop tolerating the intolerant.)
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To: SoFloFreeper
Oh good If Dem paid consultant Lying Larry projects something then /> bank the exact opposite.
Is Larry still hiding his DNC campaign consultant work
He is still sporting the bad rug .
9 posted on 10/18/2018 2:16:17 PM PDT by ncalburt (Gop DC Globalists out themselves)
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To: Williams

Yes I’m being a wet blanket, but we aren’t going to win every election based on 2016, and every negative poll isn’t going to be wrong. Let’s not have 2016 become our kool aid.
/
/

Agreed.


10 posted on 10/18/2018 2:16:30 PM PDT by snarkytart
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To: Innovative

Exactly!! Polls are only good for food for 24 hour news channels. Talking heads can go on and on and on about this poll and that poll.


11 posted on 10/18/2018 2:17:08 PM PDT by uptowngirl
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To: SoFloFreeper

And that’s why he’s President Hillary Clinton’s favorite pollster.


12 posted on 10/18/2018 2:17:17 PM PDT by thoughtomator (Number of arrested coup conspirators to date: 2)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Unfortunately the blue wave is alive and well in NJ.

In 2014 our delegation was 6D-6R. We lost Garrett’s seat in 2016 and we have no hope of getting it back this year.

Now 2 of the remaining seats are certain Democratic pickups, and in 2 other seats, GOP incumbents are hanging by a thread.
We may end up 11D-1R after this election, if we are very lucky it might be 9D-3R.


13 posted on 10/18/2018 2:17:51 PM PDT by nbenyo
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To: SoFloFreeper

Not to panic anyone, but if the dems win anything it’s RIP USA. Then again, I think we’re far beyond ballot box measures to remedy the corruption in ‘our’ govt.


14 posted on 10/18/2018 2:18:34 PM PDT by Electric Graffiti (Jeff Sessions IS the insurance policy)
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To: SoFloFreeper
Only ¡YEB! can defeat Hillary.
Donald Trump will never be the Republican nominee.
15 posted on 10/18/2018 2:19:05 PM PDT by MrEdd (Caveat Emptor)
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To: Williams

Data, not polls.

We are kicking as just like 2016 according to the data.


16 posted on 10/18/2018 2:19:15 PM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: SoFloFreeper

Sabato is giving way too much weight to the Democrats. I suspect that many Democrats will vote, for Republican candidates. #WalkAway is gaining momentum with every Pelosi mouth fart.


17 posted on 10/18/2018 2:19:56 PM PDT by Richard Axtell (So, this is the Third World! What happened to the first two?)
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To: SoFloFreeper

His best case scenario at this date is they fall short by 4 and Trump rallys may make even that questionable


18 posted on 10/18/2018 2:20:33 PM PDT by Raycpa
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To: SoFloFreeper

Thanks for that reminder. Sounds like Larry Sabato seriously doesn’t know how to create an accurate poll. Or, maybe he does and just doesn’t want to.


19 posted on 10/18/2018 2:21:17 PM PDT by upchuck (Definition of a Republican registered to vote but doesn't on Nov 6: A DEMOCRAT!)
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To: SoFloFreeper

Sabato stinks. I would not lose any sleep of any analysis and predictions he does. Not very reliable.


20 posted on 10/18/2018 2:21:26 PM PDT by DarthVader (Not by speeches & majority decisions will the great issues of today be decided but by Blood & Iron)
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