Another NV Senate poll has Heller (R) +2

Real Clear Politics ^ | Oct 11, 2018

[11th_VA]

NY Times/Siena 10/8 - 10/10 642 LV 4.0 47 45 Heller +2

NBC News/Marist 9/30 - 10/3 574 LV 5.5 46 44 Heller +2

CNN* 9/25 - 9/29 693 LV 4.6 43 47 Rosen +4

[11th_VA]

Both Heller an McSally have both had 6 point swings since Kavanagh vote ...

[rovenstinez]

Groping Senator Corey of New Jersey needs to be thanked. Looking down on Kavenaugh when he did FAR worse, and humiliating him works to get Republicans elected.

[PSUGOP]

The only real question is how big will the GOP gains be.

[wastoute]

WINNING! Not tired.

[DIRTYSECRET]

We’ll see.

[Andy from Chapel Hill]

What does the asterisk after the CNN poll mean?

[wastoute]

You know if the pollsters are admitting to +2 it is really over +6. One can safely add at least +4 to every poll due to media bias.

[stilloftyhenight]

I will need an industrial sized clamp on my nose to vote for Heller, but I will vote for him to keep the seat Republican.

[pepsionice]

At this point, every single GOP-held Senate seat that was up for the election....appears to be fixed for a GOP win.

You can’t say that comment for Democratic-held Senate seats. I think at least four seats flip to the GOP...with two more remotely possible. Looking at the 2020 Senate race...I can already predict two more Democratic seats flipping (Alabama in particular).

[TigerClaws]

Kavanaugh BUMP!

[Mr. K]

if enough GOP turn out we could get a republican givernor too.

TURNOUT iS EVERYTHING!!!!!!!!!!

[nikos1121]

I’m not up on the names. Is Heller GOP? Rosen? McSally is GOP and I thought it was nip and tuck.

I still can’t get an honest answer regarding the House races.

Senate, things are looking good.

I see us keeping Cruz, Corker’s (Blackman) and we might pick up:

N. Dakota
Florida

We’re in the race for
WVa
Montana
Maybe even Menendez’s seat

[centurion316]

All polls include a turnout model in their calculations. This is a fancy term for their guess of how many people of each side will actually vote in November. The technical term is SWAG, Scientific Wild Ass Guess. Before Kavanaugh, the turnout model included a high number for Democrats and a low number for Republicans. I think that they are changing the number for Republicans from low to higher. The real result in November will depend on real turnout, not a few magic numbers from the polls.

[wastoute]

I see Trump coming out of this with 60 Senators and very few squishy RINOs. By 2020 Trump could really have an 80% favorability largely because of the deranged behavior of Radical Rats.

[Sooth2222]

Not sure 2% is outside of the Nevada Democrat Margin of Fraud, yet.

Is Trump planning a rally?

[FLT-bird]

This one’s gonna be tight but Heller keeps hanging in there with a slim lead. I hope it holds for another month.

[ChildOfThe60s]

In NV, it takes 2 points to match Democrat fraud.

[LS]

Heller has been up in four of the last six polls. RCP only “counts” two of them.

[LS]

99% certain Trump will go into NV, WV, possibly AZ, OH the last week and pull all four R candidates over the line.

Both Richard Baris and Larry Sabato agree Trump is “good for four or five points in a race.”