Posted on 10/01/2018 5:23:31 PM PDT by Trump20162020
Then you have been wearing blinders.
Go look at every special election held since Nov 16 and you’ll see one nearly constant pattern.. Democrats are turning out in near presidential year levels while GOP turnout has been at regular midterm levels.
The only reason the GOP has won most of the special elections is because they have been held largely in deep red districts where even midterm level turnouts by the GOP are higher than presidential year turnouts by Dems in them.
PA18 and OH12 are perfect examples of what was coming this fall before the Kavanaugh circus... and a lot of purple nd pink districts were going to go blue.
The Dems complete overplay on Kavanaugh and dirty pool managed to do something they GOP themselves seemed unwilling or unable to do and that is motivate not only their base, but also engage and anger and motivate the non traditional And cross over MAGA voters.
Before this circus the GOP was almost certainly losing the house... but the Dems outrageous behavior re Kavanaugh, and the obvious transparency of it, slammed that door shut hard.
Someone on the Left, someone young and charismatic and almost certainly white, is going to seize the moment after the GOP increases their Senate lead in November, and call out the Donkey-rotten wood that is Feinstein, Schumer, and yeah Pelosi too.
That said, the coming GOP Supermajority is a glorious thing.
Try cashing that check after you get beat, Donnelly. Soros will forget you over in an instant.
You vote "No" Joe you're just one of the demented kabuki theater crowd; you vote "Yes" and at least you'll get invited on Hahdball & Foxnews to explain your vote; and you can run again for something: dogcatcher, county clerk...
Pure winning. Thanks Dianne Feinstein. Thanks Kamala Harris. And most of all, thanks Jeff Flake. It’s going to be super sweet if Flake’s final act of betrayal hands the GOP a huge victory in the 2018 midterms.
All true......but, you gotta look at the turnout for the primaries. The GOP turnout has matched and in some cases exceeded the Democratic turn out. For example in Texas, Ted Cruz alone got more primary vote than all three US Senate candidates for the Dems combinaed. This is why, I for one, have never been worried about Ted Cruz loosing to O’Rourke.
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/texas-primary-election
Six weeks is a long time. No complacency allowed.
I’ve scheduled surgery four days before the election, so for the first time in my life, I’ve applied for an absentee ballot.
The two I want voted out, and their seats flipped are Joe Donnelly and Claire McCaskill.
I admit I don’t understand Missouri politics, but how is McCaskill going to fend off Hawley in a state that Trump won by double digits?
“Why are they willing to risk everything?”
It’s not that they are willing to do so. It’s that they don’t see any way other than full-throated, 24/7 resistance on all fronts. In an effort not to “normalize” Trump, everything he does must be attacked with as much vigor as they’re capable of mustering.
“Then you have been wearing blinders.”
Well, to be fair, that is the only conceivable reason I could possibly hold an opinion that differs from yours.
“nearly constant pattern...largely...what was coming...almost certainly...”
Yeah, looks like a lock.
Primary turnout is a piss poor indicator of much.
Those numbers rarely change, unless there is a hotly contested primary , regardless of what is going on in the rest of the body politic.
You have the same party loyalist show up for both sides, unless there is some hotly contested primary... using those numbers as a indicator for the general election is a fools errand.
Dems, had they been remotely sane, just had to keep their heads down and were marching to an almost certain house pick up this fall.
Kavanaugh destroyed ANY chance of that. The democrat advantage was based on the fact that Democrats are motivated... they are going to show up and vote for any D just to “stick it to Trump” the GOP was not getting anywhere near that motivation level... but more importantly the GOP had not, by design or by incompetence, done ANYTHING to engage and motivate those non traditional MAGA and cross over voters, that gave Trump the Upper Midwest, in particular.
Their entire fall campaign has all been around, same old tired messaging that NEVER got those people to show up. Calling your opponent a Pelosi clone isn’t going to motivate those people, its a message that sells to your hard core base, but does nothing outside it, and that’s the messaging the GOP has been relying on for hte fall, and its why PA-18 and OH12 happened... Before Kavanaugh the GOP was going to lose 10 seats across the upper midwest alone... if not more... and almost certainly lose the house.
What Kavanaugh did, and the Dems fail to realize, is it not only completely fired up the GOP base... but it ANGERED AND FIRED UP THE INDEPENDENTS AND NON TRADITIONAL MAGA VOTERS!
The Dems, living in their little blue bubbles, honestly though this would be a win for them... and would motivate their base, and they could play this as protecting women and pull women.. but it hasn’t and won’t. The Dems fail to recognize, their base is already fully engaged, they aren’t going to motivate any more D’s to show up for them, the engine is already red lined for them there... So pandering to them in a way that ANGERS everyone else, was STUPID....
To paraphrase Admiral Yamamoto after the bombing of Pearl Harbor... All they have done is awoken a sleeping giant and filled him with terrible resolve.
Dems were willing to crawl over glass to vote this fall... Now, not only are Republicans equally willing and motivated to vote for their Candidates, but the Independents largely are too! Not so much because the GOP has given them a strong reason to, but because the Dems behavior is ABSOLUTELY SO REPUGNANT on this Kavanaugh situation, they are going to punish them!
So long as Kavanaugh is confirmed at the end of the day, and I fully expect him to be with 52-55 votes.... the Dems will be crushed this fall, and its honestly a wholly preventable loss, and completely self inflicted.
The GOP will be sitting at 57 or more in the Senate, and still in control of the house, and honestly as I said I say its better than even odds the GOP now gains seats in the house. And that will be the case for the next 2 years.. heading into a Presidential Election that Trump will almost certainly win (short of a complete economic collapse) by the biggest landslide since Reagan/Mondale.
Odds are high that Trump will likely name replacements for Ginsberg and Breyer in his second term..ANd possibly Thomas and Sotomayor as well depending on their health.
There is a very real chance, that Trump may name 6 justices to the supreme court when all is said and done.... Ginsberg I suspect will try her best to hold on... so she may actually DIE rather than retire and let Trump name her successor.. But we shall see...
The Dems must be blind to the fact that when they act like Nazi's, people actually see it and it angers them that we have a Nazi party in our great land.
You can hold any opinion you like, but if you look at consistent Democratic turnout at near Presidential year numbers, and GOP turnout at midterm levels, and think that the GOP is on target to not lose the house, your opinion is based, at least partly, on a poor understanding of basic math.
Up until Kavanaugh, EVERY congressional district where Dems put up higher presidential year numbers, than Republican Mid Term numbers was in play... period. Democrats need 22 seats or something like that, and the number of districts where they outperform GOP midterm levels is far more than double that.. If not triple.
Not every district where dems are better in presidential years, that GOP in midterm will fall, but if you think GOP wins those 2 to 1 in the climate pre Kavanaugh, you are far more optimistic than math allows.
Its all moot at this point anyway as Kavanaugh completely shifted the playing field, with the GOP and Independents now ENGAGED an angry, there is no way the Dems take the house, and as I stated before, probably at or better than 50-50 right now that the GOP gains house seats.
correction
“NOT on target to lose the house”
Again, why in the hell would N Dakota ever elect a Democrat as US Senator?
Because the Republicans we continue to support aren’t doing as we have asked them to do? So many of them need a spine transplant. The guys need to have their balls reattached and the gals need electro-shock therapy.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.