Posted on 08/11/2018 11:49:52 AM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks
According to recent media accounts, America is in a population death spiral. Open-borders activists have seized on the narrative to promote ever-looser immigration policies.
But the narrative is wrong.
In fact, women in the U.S. are more likely to be mothers than in the past, and they are having more children, reports the Pew Research Center.
The Pew study found that women have 2.07 children during their lives on average – up from 1.86 in 2006, the lowest on record. Family size is also up. In 2016, mothers at the end of their childbearing years had had about 2.42 children, compared with 2.31 in 2008.
So, what about those dire warnings of a U.S. population collapse?
The Pew analysis is properly calculated on a cumulative measure of lifetime fertility — the number of births a woman has ever had. Reports of alleged declining U.S. fertility are based on less accurate annual rates, which only capture fertility at one point in time.
In fact, the share of U.S. women at the end of their childbearing years who have ever given birth was higher in 2016 than 10 years earlier. Not only are women more likely to be mothers than in the past, but they are having more children.
As Donna Strobino, a professor of population, family and reproductive health at the Johns Hopkins University, puts it: Women are delaying having children, rather than not having children at all.
These are inconvenient truths for neo-mercantilists trying to exploit the media’s simple-minded herd instinct and the misplaced compassion of immigration enthusiasts to advance a population fetish.
For all the alarmist rhetoric about its impending collapse, America’s population has swelled from 203 million in 1970 to more than 328 million this year, with no end in sight.
The U.S. is the third most populous country on Earth, behind India and China. Its annual population growth rate is 0.7 percent – between China’s 0.39 percent and India’s 1.11 percent.
Immigration clearly enters into the equation here. Pew reports that nearly a quarter of U.S. births in 2014 were to foreign-born mothers, and about a third of those were to illegal aliens.
So how many more millions should the United States welcome aboard? It’s a crucial question; a dispassionate answer will be based on the cost-benefits to America, and the impact on this country’s environment and institutions. Scaremongering about a supposed scarcity of service workers and Social Security contributors is not the basis for sound policy when demographic data don’t support the story line.
Sounds like the fictitious STEM shortage. Anything to justify unfettered population replacement.
Liberals are in a population death spiral, while conservative Americans are having enough kids to sustain their numbers. It’s what you get from practicing abortion and strange sex too much.
which ethnic groups are having more children?
Our problem is WHO is having children.
Incidentally it is mentioned that a third are born to Illegals. Combine that with the proportion of the Welfare Class having Illegitimate children and you can see the disaster looming.
When those with IQs more than one standard deviation from the mean are having far too many babies future illegitimacy, more poverty, more welfare dependency, more crime are the result.
A substantial part of IQ is inherited (40-60%) according to the vast majority of studies of such. And the academics hated to have to admit it. This means the below average proportion of births is contributing to a decline in national IQ.
Unfortunately the birthrate in the upper levels of IQ who you want to have children (married, educated, upper level of the class structure) does not even reach 2.00. The cost of a child in this group is astronomical since the wife’s income is sacrificed to be able to raise her child.
The increasing role of intelligence in the technological economy points to two groups: those of low intelligence and those of high intelligence with the latter getting the high paying jobs and the former creeping by on the dole.
This is not a racist conclusion since the highest IQ is the Jews with the East Asian next. Whites are 5 or so points behind the latter and 10 or so for Jews.
See above.
Correction - one third of all births to foreign mother are too Illegals NOT one third of all births as I stated.
Gotta read carefully.
Immigration can be a good thing if new immigrants consume less than they produce. Importing a massive number of welfare recipients will hurt instead help.
And then there is the culture. Is their culture compatible and if not are they willing to assimilate?
Scaremongering about a supposed scarcity of service workers and Social Security contributors is not the basis for sound policy when demographic data don’t support the story line.
Not to mention the murder of 50 million contributors
before they ever had a chance to contribute anything.
“childbearing years HAD HAD about 2.42 children,
—
Read it again.
.
One looks at women hitting 45 and looks at home many children they had on average.
The total fertility rate averages the birth rates of women in aggregate per year and predicts their average fertility over a lifetime.
If women are having children later in life so the fertility rate for women in their late 30s WILL BE higher than what we see right now, TFR will under-report how many kids we expect them to have. If fertility drops off faster than expected, TFR estimates based on today’s data expect you to have 2.0-2.5 kids when a lot of women don’t have that second or third child demographers expected.
Fertility drugs???
This is great news, but urban planners in my city are expecting the opposite, or even trying to force less children by the housing they are building. They are concentrating on packing millennials into downtown cubbyholes stacked on top of each other, with no room for kids. I never see children playing in these new urban housing areas.
I’m guessing it’s predominately Latinos and Moslems nowadays.
Whitey is not having babies, but many newly-arrived “visitors” are breeding like rabbits, thanks to Whitey’s money.
I don't believe this to be true at all.
In fact, it's my observation that the people having the most children are those who have someone else flipping the bill.
And this includes myself. My wife and I have four children and as an active duty member of the U.S. military, having them didn't cost us a dime.
Should also mention that all husbands are employed with professional careers, three wives also work, two full time, 1 part time with three stay-at-home moms.
I have 3 daughters, one has 5 children, the other 2 have 3 children. I have a number of female friends that, like me are Baby Boomers, only 2 of these women had no children, one had a stillborn baby and never had more, the other never had any and i never inquired as to why but her hubby has 3 by a prior marriage..
So much for running out of native born children to replace us in the Midwest!
At some point, there will not be enough taxpayers to pay for welfare. Even before that point, we will be at a point where we will have to choose between funding Social Security and Medicare for ourselves and our own parents and grandparents, versus funding welfare.
How many kids will a welfare girl have if she has to support them herself with no assistance?
A fourth of the kids are born to immigrants, with a third OF THAT FOURTH being born to illegals. That’s how I read it.
So 1/12 of the USA’s kids are being born to illegals. Still too high.
“Incidentally it is mentioned that a third are born to Illegals.”
Which contradicts a previous Pew study that shows that the birthrate from Mexican illegals - the largest illegal group - leveled off and dropped in 2007 and hasn’t recovered.
My point is that we don’t know what’s going on population wise because all the studies are unclear and contradictory. And the US census bureau is a morass of outright propaganda and disinformation.
Now, here’s my report:
I’m seeing an explosion of stick figures on the back of SUVs in grocery parking lots. These are the appliques that parents paste on the back windows of their SUVs that show the number of kids, pets, etc. I live in a mostly white community; therefore, the white population is increasing dramatically.
Furthermore, no soccer fields that cater to Mexicans are being built. OTOH, baseball diamonds that appeal to white whites and white Mexicans, are sprouting like mushrooms in the community.
We live in interesting times, yes?
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