Posted on 08/06/2018 4:16:21 PM PDT by Pinkbell
An Emerson College e-Poll released on Monday shows that Tuesday’s special election in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District is a dead heat between Democrat Danny O’Connor and Republican Troy Balderson.
The Emerson College Polling Society said in a statement accompanying the release of the poll:
The final US Congressional special election before the November midterm elections will be held on August 7 in Ohio’s 12th district and it shows a neck and neck race:
The Democrat, Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor has 47% of the vote and Republican, State Senator Troy Balderson is at 46%, 7% of very likely voters were undecided. The data was collected August 2 to 4, with +/-5 percentage points. The poll was taken prior to President Trump’s rally in the district on August 4.
The statement continued:
Both Congressional candidates are polarizing figures O’Connor has a 44% favorable and 41% unfavorable, while Balderson has a 46% favorable and 45% unfavorable opinion. President Trump is more popular in the district than he is nationwide with a 47% approval and 48% disapproval. Better news for Balderson, is that Pelosi is severely disliked with 56% disapproval and a 22% approval rating.
Independents are breaking 56% to 28% for O’Connor, and the Clinton voter seem more loyal to their party candidates in this election that those who voted for Trump. Clinton voters are breaking for O’Connor 95% to 3%, while Trump voters are breaking for Balderson 89% to 7%.
The Emerson College e-Poll “was conducted August 2-4, 2018 under the Supervision of Assistant Professor Spencer Kimball. The sample consisted of only likely voters, n=431, with a Credibility Interval (similar to margin of error) of +/- 5 percentage points. The data was weighted by party affiliation, age, county and gender based on a turnout out model.”
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Also, unlike others who've polled this race, Emerson didn't include the Green Party candidate in their list of choices.
This is an “e-poll”, so it’s skewed in favor of millennials.
Balderson might be doing better with the Deplorables than this poll shows.
plus or minus 5 isn’t exactly accurate either...
This is the worrisome number.
Wouldn’t even be close if he was a Trump Republican.
He is a Bush League Republican.
It’s an E=Poll. Why would we even pay attention to it?
POTUS just had a rally to support him, don’t start with this excuse.
Face it the left is extremely motivated by hating Trump, and know the mid terms and special elections is a way to get him impeached. Meanwhile, our side seems to be complacent.
This is a bogus poll. They heavily sampled Franklin County and under sampled Delaware County. That’s exactly what you need to do to skew the poll for the ‘rats.
The poll was also conducted for two days before Trump’s rally. This would skew toward the ‘rats as well.
Adjusting for the bogus skewing, I’d say Balderson wins by at least 4 to 5 points.
President Trump has endorsed several Bush League Republicans, much to my consternation.
McCain for one.
Mitt Romney for another.
It never works out for him to be nice to them.
Larry, when they are wrong, let us mock them here.
And let us mock them forever.
That's a high margin of error.
It’s a BS poll.
Folks in Ohio are on the Trump train.
This is my old district. See my post 10.
Plus or minus FIVE percent.
Folks in the Ohio 12thCD...forget the polls......Just get out the door and go vote for Troy Balderson on Tuesday, August 7th, 2018. In a “special election”...turn out of voters, wins the election every time. Do it!!!
Support, Troy Bladerson, Support, POTUS, Donald J. Trumo, Support, Make America Great Again (MAGA)!!!
For Pete’s sake, Pinkbell, this is a damn PR release from Emerson College that Breitbart copied and released.
Learn how to distinguish from blatant, leftist propaganda versus a news story. And stop posting your garbage analysis based on obvious leftist sources.
Why would you have a special election so close to a general? And is the D candidate running those “I want to work with everbody” ads?
I kinda wish Trafficant were still alive, Trump would sew up the state LOL
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