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Poll: Young People Don’t Like Trump, But They Don’t Like Voting Either
Hotair ^
| 07/19/2018
| Jazz Shaw
Posted on 07/19/2018 9:20:24 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
How much does the rumored “blue wave” rely on the youth vote? This is of particular concern for Democrats when it comes to the 18-29 demographic which regularly leans toward the progressive side these days. If a recent poll from the Public Religion Research Institute and the Atlantic is any indication, there’s plenty to worry about. (I actually picked this up from a Vox article, but the poll seems legitimate.) While the youngest voters seem to be quite vocal out on the protest beat, fewer than a third of them are sure that they’ll actually show up on election day.
Republicans and Democrats are about equally likely to say they are sure to vote this year (59% vs. 56%). In 2014, Republicans held a considerable edge. More than two-thirds (68%) of Republicans, compared to only about half (51%) of Democrats, said they were absolutely certain to vote in 2014.
The generation gap in reported voting intent is massive. Only 28% of young adults say they are absolutely certain they will vote in the 2018 election compared to 74% of seniors.
Notably, white (56%) and black (52%) Americans are about equally likely to say they are absolutely certain to vote this year. Fewer than one-third (31%) of Hispanic Americans report being absolutely certain about casting a ballot in the coming election.
This survey doesn’t seem to be an outlier either. Another poll from the AP found that 32% of younger Americans were sure to vote. (The small difference might be due, at least in part, to the fact that this poll was counting ages 18 to 34 rather than 18 to 29.)
So who is more likely to vote? As usual, it’s the older voters, a pattern which tends to hold true in most midterm races where overall participation is generally down. In statewide Senate races this doesn’t seem to have quite as much effect, but in the more marginal House contests where a difference of a few thousand ballots can decide the race, lower turnout increases the level of unpredictability. And if you can’t rely on the youngest voters to show up you’re going to see a tilt in a more conservative direction.
These results represent a shift from as recently as April, when the Washington Post reported that under-35 voting enthusiasm was still below half (44%) but favoring Democrats and better than what we’re seeing this week.
So what explains it? We’ve discussed this question here before, but a lot of it really seems to be coming down to the “burnout” factor. There’s so much drama over politics and the news cycle is so consistently full out outrage that people seem to be increasingly tuning out. As the old saying goes, when everything is an outrage, nothing is outrageous. And with the youngest voters typically being the hardest to get out to the polls to begin with, it’s not all that crazy to think that turnout will be down once again this November.
TOPICS: Culture/Society; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: fake; fakenews; millenials; poll; voting
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To: SeekAndFind
That would be why the Democrats want to vote for them.
2
posted on
07/19/2018 9:23:15 AM PDT
by
E. Pluribus Unum
(<img src="http://i.imgur.com/WukZwJP.gif" width=600><p>https://i.imgur.com/zXSEP5Z.gif)
To: SeekAndFind
If Cortez and Hogg are examples of today’s “young people”, then I’m not surprised.
3
posted on
07/19/2018 9:24:04 AM PDT
by
FrankR
(IF it wasn't for the "F-word", and it's deritives, the left would have no message at all.)
To: SeekAndFind
Hmmm. I suppose that’s because “Trump ruined everything!” HUH? That’s what there told and aren’t curious enough to find out any different. No basis, just that’s what they heard. Sad damn state of affairs.
4
posted on
07/19/2018 9:24:10 AM PDT
by
rktman
(Enlisted in the Navy in '67 to protect folks rights to strip my rights. WTH?)
To: SeekAndFind
Older people do vote a lot more than younger people—at least partially because they are more “settled” in a community and have more at stake with local issues.
However, everyone lies to pollsters about whether they actually plan to vote, and (non political) life happens on election day and plans may not turn out to be real.
Non-presidential elections have notoriously unpredictable turnouts that can vary state by state and even town by town depending on local issues and candidates.
5
posted on
07/19/2018 9:25:31 AM PDT
by
cgbg
(Hidden behind the social justice warrior mask is corruption and sexual deviance.)
To: SeekAndFind
They don’t like The Constitution.
They don’t like The United States of America as founded.
They don’t like Personal Responsibility.
All in all, they have no concept of what Freedom really is.
6
posted on
07/19/2018 9:25:44 AM PDT
by
Kickass Conservative
(The way Liberals carry on about Deportation, you would think "Mexico" was Spanish for "Auschwitz".)
To: E. Pluribus Unum
Yes, the graveyards are full of willing participants.
7
posted on
07/19/2018 9:26:18 AM PDT
by
Beowulf9
To: SeekAndFind
Oh goody more syndicated Salem Never Trump shiite
To: SeekAndFind
I’m so tired all of the phony, hysterical 24/7 TV outrage crap...
so I definitely tune out the media, including Fox pusi’s like Sheppie Smith and Cavuto.
In fact, when it comes to anything even remotely related to politics, I just can’t and WON’T watch two seconds of their manufactured crap. I stick to Free Republic.
9
posted on
07/19/2018 9:31:05 AM PDT
by
Conserv
To: SeekAndFind
So they’ll be more than happy to accept the Communist Dictatorship when it comes to pass.
To: Conserv
Your IQ rises and your life expectancy increases every day you _don’t_ watch the “news” channels.
You heard it here first.
11
posted on
07/19/2018 9:35:16 AM PDT
by
cgbg
(Hidden behind the social justice warrior mask is corruption and sexual deviance.)
To: SeekAndFind
When I turned 18, it was a holiday, so, I couldn’t register to vote that day. The next day, I went in and registered to vote, and, for selective service.
I couldn’t wait to be able to vote.
12
posted on
07/19/2018 9:36:32 AM PDT
by
Conan the Librarian
(The Best in Life is to crush my enemies, see them driven before me, and the Dewey Decimal System)
To: SeekAndFind
Illegal Aliens: Doing the voting Americans dont want to do.
13
posted on
07/19/2018 9:37:32 AM PDT
by
reg45
(Barack 0bama: Gone but not forgiven.)
To: SeekAndFind
I’ve seen reports that reflect some young people are warming to President Trump. I’m not as convinces as some people are, that he is loathed by them en mass.
14
posted on
07/19/2018 9:40:24 AM PDT
by
DoughtyOne
(01/26/18 DJIA 30 stocks $26,616.71 48.794% > open 11/07/16 215.71 from 50% increase 1.2183 yrs)
To: SeekAndFind
Notably, white (56%) and black (52%) Americans are about equally likely to say they are absolutely certain to vote this year.
When have we ever seen a 50% voter turnout in either group?
15
posted on
07/19/2018 9:43:21 AM PDT
by
polymuser
(Its terrible to contemplate how few politicians are hanged today. - Chesterto)
To: SeekAndFind
Fake news!
I knew it would be when I read the word “poll.”
16
posted on
07/19/2018 9:46:03 AM PDT
by
MrEdd
(Caveat Emptor)
To: DoughtyOne
RE: Ive seen reports that reflect some young people are warming to President Trump.
Can you provide us with the news source? a link perhaps? Thanks.
To: DoughtyOne
Just as my generation warmed to Ronald Reagan when we got our first real jobs, so this generation should warm to Trump for the same reason.
Living in Mummy's basement and going to work part-time at Starbucks is a stupid way to go through life.
18
posted on
07/19/2018 9:48:59 AM PDT
by
Vigilanteman
(ObaMao: Fake America, Fake Messiah, Fake Black man. How many fakes can you fit into one Zer0?)
To: SeekAndFind
I don’t have a specific article in mind. I have read two or three different reports about support among our youth.
19
posted on
07/19/2018 9:49:06 AM PDT
by
DoughtyOne
(01/26/18 DJIA 30 stocks $26,616.71 48.794% > open 11/07/16 215.71 from 50% increase 1.2183 yrs)
To: SeekAndFind
Do they still chose persons for Jury Duty from the voter registrations? My folks going way back were die hard democrats, but they never voted because they did not want to be called for Jury Duty.
Since they are all now dead, they never miss an election and always vote Dem.
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